Voting swings and seat changes: A stochastic model

The usual method for analysing the relationship between net seat changes and net voting swings has been Mackerras's pendulum, which is based on the assumption of uniform swing. This paper argues that the probabilistic concepts which underlie the relationship have not been clearly recognised in the past, and proposes a simple stochastic model for net swings. The pendulum‐uniform swing model is a special case of this model. A mathematical analysis is given of the implications of the model for the relationship between swing and seat changes. As well as showing how net seat changes can be predicted from net voting swing, the analysis demonstrates that quite large fluctuations in net seat changes can result from random variation alone.     

National Identity,Partisanship and Populist Protest as Factors in the 1999 Australian Republic Referendum

Using survey data from the Australian Constitutional Referendum Study 1999, the article begins by showing that the votes of direct electionists were as important as those of monarchists in the defeat of the republic referendum. Since these votes were crucial to the outcome, it then discusses several possible explanations of what differentiated those direct electionists who voted against the referendum proposal from those who voted in favour. Explanations considered include partisan influences, populist protest, and the role of national identity and ancestry. The article finds that all had a part to play in distinguishing the direct electionists who supported the referendum from those who did not, with the protest aspect being related to conceptions of national identity and capable of being interpreted as a reaction against multiculturalism. It also considers future prospects and argues that eventually some sort of direct election outcome is likely.     

Natural preservation mechanisms at play in a Bronze Age wooden shovel found in the copper mines of Alderley Edge

A wooden shovel, dating from the Early Bronze Age, has survived in a remarkable state of preservation in the copper mines of Alderley Edge, Cheshire UK. Other historic timbers recovered from the mines, whilst still intact, have fared less well. An X-ray investigation into the distribution of minerals through the shovel using portable X-ray Fluorescence (PXRF) along with the use of synchrotron-based X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS) measurements of the copper and arsenic chemical speciations has provided clues to the methods by which metals from the mining environment have entered the wood of the shovel and ensured its survival. The distribution and nature of the minerals so determined suggest that the copper and arsenic, along with a significant lead content, entered the shovel during its original use in working mineral-rich deposits, rather than through the burial environment. The insights gained are expected to be applicable to other wooden artefacts recovered from ancient copper mines in other places.     

Children and families: Relationships between family attitudes,household composition and voting in Australia

In the light of ongoing demographic trends (such as low fertility rates and growth of single-person households), some of the features of the 2004 Australian federal election outcomes and campaign raise the possibility that we might have seen the beginnings of a divide in voting behaviour based on family structure, particularly those aspects related to the presence of children. Relevant data from the 2004 Australian Election Study (AES) are quite limited, so I use data from both the 2004 AES and the 2003 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to explore the relationships between federal voting and family structure, and attitudes towards children, parenting and families of different types. The results show effects on voting that apparently result from financial considerations related to the presence of children and others that are related to differences of values.     

The investigation of a medieval barrel-latrine from Worcester

The contents of a 15th century barrel-latrine from Worcester (U.K.) have been investigated. Twenty edible plant taxa were identified, mainly fruit, including gooseberry—an unusual find—while fig and grape may be exotics. Weld (used for dyeing) and linseed were also found. Seeds from cornfield weeds, wayside and wetland plants show the past presence of straw, hay and sedge, and the pollen spectra also show this. Broad bean, hemp/hop and borage pollen may represent food or drink, and abundant bran demonstrates the remains of cereal food like bread. Intestinal parasite ova give evidence of faeces, and the beetle remains are comparable with those from modern cesspits, the remains of grain and legume pests possibly coming from beetles consumed with infested food. The herring and eel bones may also have been eaten, but the chicken bones and larger fruit stones represent rubbish which would not have been swallowed. Some cloth remains were found. This study shows something of latrines, rubbish disposal, diet, living conditions and the general surroundings at the time.     

Electoral bias in Australia 1980–1993: The impact of the 1983 electoral amendments

This paper examines the amount and sources of electoral bias at federal elections in Australia from 1980 to 1993. The main conclusion reached is that the changes to electoral legislation introduced between the 1983 and 1984 elections did not, as has previously been widely accepted, merely act to neutralise the then‐existing bias towards the Liberal and National coalition parties but actually resulted in a bias towards the Australian Labor Party. Most of the bias arose from the differential geographic concentration of voters, to which a contributing influence was a ‘size effect’ caused by increasing the number of members of parliament However, the introduction of a boundary redistribution criterion which requires equality in electorate enrolments over time (rather than immediately) has also introduced an inbuilt bias arising from differential enrolment levels into the post‐1983 electoral system. This bias has favoured the ALP at every one of the four elections held under the new system.     

National Uniformity,and State and Local Effects on Australian Voting: A Multilevel Approach

The existence and extent of influences arising within spatial contexts is an important issue in the study of voting behaviour. This paper extends previous Australian research by using the relatively new technique of multilevel analysis to draw together individual survey data from the 1993 Australian Election Study and ecological census data to investigate the question. The results show that, once individual voter characteristics are taken into account, influences on first preference voting for the ALP at the 1993 election were quite uniform nationally, with relatively small spatial variations. Moreover, those spatial variations which were present were at the divisional, not the state, level and can be almost completely explained by a very small number of sociotropic factors, especially a local economic prosperity influence and the well-known rural-urban cleavage. As far as influences on voting at the 1993 election at the level of individual voters are concerned, these multilevel analyses provide some new insights, as well as confirming some previous results.     

Plus ça change…? Institutional,Political and Social Influences on Local Spatial Variations in Australian Federal Voting

It is often argued that features such as partisan de-alignment and targeted campaigning have led to certain kinds of local influences on voting (such as candidate and incumbency effects) becoming more important in recent decades, whereas theories of individualism and class de-alignment imply that the importance for voting of local contextual effects, such as ones based on social class context, should have reduced. In this article, I use an extensive set of multilevel analyses to explore the extent to which these outcomes are evident in Australia over the past four decades. As well as presenting and discussing several detailed findings of interest, relating to all of political and social factors and contextual effects, I also argue that the institutional structure has inhibited the extent of anything but short-term changes at the local level.