Reconstruction of diffusion processes at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

Book reviews

AUSTRALIA IN WORLD AFFAIRS 1966–70. Gordon Greenwood and Norman Harper (eds.). Cheshire, for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Melbourne, 1974. vii + 489 pp. 0–7015–1571–6. $13.95.

FROM TWEEDLEDUM TO TWEEDLEDEE. THE NEW LABOR GOVERNMENT IN AUSTRALIA: A CRITIQUE OF ITS SOCIAL MODEL. Robert Catley and Bruce McFarlane. Australia and New Zealand Book Company, Sydney, 1974. 88 pp. + 24 pp. app. 0–8555–022–1. $3.50 paper.

FULL CIRCLE. S. F. Rowell. Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1974, 206 pp. $9.90.

PUBLIC POLICY IN AUSTRALIA. Roy Forward (ed.). Cheshire, Melbourne, 1974. 276 pp. 07015–1741–7. $6.50 paper.

TO PHOENIX SEAT: AN INTRODUCTORY STUDY OF MAOISM AND THE CHINESE COMMUNIST QUEST FOR A PARADISE ON EARTH. Leslie R. Marchant. Angus and Robertson, Sydney, 1973. 276 pp. 0–207–12373. $7.95.

THE NORTH KOREAN COMMUNIST LEADERSHIP, 1945–1965: A STUDY OF FACTIONALISM AND POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION. Koon Woo Nam. The University of Alabama Press, Alabama 35486, 1974. 214 pp. 08193–4723–2. $7.50.

TRADITION AND REVOLUTION IN VIETNAM. Nguyen Khac Vien. Indochina Resource Center, Berkeley, California, 1974. 169 pp. $US 2.65.

POLITICS AND POWER IN CAMBODIA: THE SIHANOUK YEARS. Milton Osborne. Longman, Melbourne, 1974. 120 pp. $7.50 hard cover, $3.50 paper.

THE 1971 ELECTIONS IN INDONESIA: AN EAST JAVA CASE STUDY. Ken Ward. Centre of Southeast Asian Studies, Monash University, Melbourne, 1974. 120 pp. 0–909835–09–8. $3.75.

TWENTY YEARS OF INDONESIAN FOREIGN POLICY, 1945–1965. Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung. Mouton, The Hague and Paris, 1973. 640 pp. $17.00.

HET EKONOMISCH BELEID IN NEDERLANDSCH‐INDIE, CAPITA SELECTA. EEN BRONNENPUBLICATIE (Economic Policy in the Netherlands Indies, Selected Subjects), PART II. P. Creutzberg (ed.). Publication No. 6 of the ‘Committee for the Publication of Primary Sources Concerning the History of the Netherlands Indies 1900–1942’. H. D. Tjeenk Willink, B.V., Groningen, The Netherlands, 1974. 792 pp.

FIFTEEN MEN ON A POWDER KEG: A HISTORY OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL. Andrew Boyd. University Paperback, London, 1973. (First published by Methuen & Co. 1971.) 416–70230–9. 383 pp. $4.20.

HAMMARSKJOLD. Brian Urquhart. The Bodley Head, London, 1972. 630 pp. $14.70.

THE NEW ZEALAND BUREAUCRAT. T. B. Smith. Cheshire, Wellington, New Zealand, 1974. 162 pp. $9.95.

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: FOUNDATIONS OF THE SYSTEM. Werner Levi. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 1974. (Distributed in Australia by Oxford University Press.) 285 pp. 0–8166–0703–6. $11.00.     

Book reviews

Australian Books

Raymond O'Dea, Principles of Wage Determination in Commonwealth Arbitration, West Publishing Corporation, Sydney, 1969, pp. 300, $9.50.

A. H. Boxer, Experts in Asia: An Inquiry into Australian Technical Assistance, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, 1969, pp. 180, $6.00.

Malcolm Mackerras, DL.P. Preference Distribution 1958–1969, Occasional Monograph No. 3, Department of Government and Public Administration, University of Sydney, 1970, pp. 69 + ii, 75c. Cheques payable to Sydney Monographs.

D. W. Rawson and Suzanne Wrightson, A Handbook of Australian Trade Unions and Employees’ Associations, Occasional Paper No. 5, Department of Political Science, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, 1970, pp. 114, $1.50.

P. H. Partridge, W. F. Connell, S. W. Cohen, Social Science for the Secondary School, Ian Novak, Sydney, 1969, pp. 132, $2.70.

Non‐Australian Books

A. Robinson, et al., Black Studies in the University: a Symposium, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1969, pp. 231, $6.95.

G. Christenson (ed.), The Future of the University, University of Oklahoma Press, Norman, 1969, pp. 292, $2.70.

J. Jeffery Auer (ed.), The Rhetoric of Our Times, Appleton‐Century‐Crofts, New York, 1969, pp. 493 + xv, $5.20.

P. J. Eldridge, The Politics of Foreign Aid in India, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, London, 1969, pp. 289, $8.90.