CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

Book reviews

NATO AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE. Ben T. Moore. For the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. New York, Harper & Brs., 1958, pp. xviii + 264. Australian price 56/6.

THE ATLANTIC TRIANGLE AND THE COLD WAR. Edgar McInnis. University of Toronto Press, Toronto, 1959, pp. viii + 163. $4.50.

SURVEY OP BRITISH COMMONWEALTH AFFAIRS. PROBLEMS OP WARTIME CO‐OPERATION AND POST‐WAR CHANGE, 1939–1952. Nicholas Mansergh. Oxford University Press for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1958.

THE DECISION TO INTERVENE. George F. Ken‐nan. Faber and Faber, 1958. Pp. xii + 513. U.K. price 50/‐.

COMMUNIST CHINA TODAY. Peter S. Tang. Thames & Hudson, London, 1957–8, 2 vote., pp. 536 & 137. End maps. Australian price 97/6 and 42/‐.

THE BIRTH OF A DILEMMA: The Conquest and Settlement of Rhodesia. Philip Mason. Under the auspices of the Institute of Race Relations. Oxford University Press, 1958, pp. xi + 366. Australian price 49/9.

THE SMALLER DRAGON. A Political History of Vietnam. Joseph Buttinger. Praeger and Stevens, Atlantic Books, 1958, pp. 535, with 9 maps and 13 plates. A SHORT HISTORY OP CAMBODIA. Martin F. Herz. Stevens & Sons, Atlantic Books, 1958, pp. 141. Australian price 34/6.

THE RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ: 1950–1957. Fahim I. Qubain. London, Stevens and Sons, 1958.     

ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM: A VIEW FROM THE FIELD

Recent studies of administrative reform reveal how underdeveloped still is the state of the art. Although improving, it suffers from serious limitations. Consequently, many reforms fail or fall below expectations. Available administrative tools have a decidedly authoritarian technocratic ring to them, enshrining values beloved to mandarins and social engineers but not necessarily acceptable to social democracies. Here, several current issues such as renewed interest, disputed definition and scope, contrasting approaches and lack of success, are surveyed together with suggestions for a new agenda.