LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCOINTEGRATED AND COINTEGRATED REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Johansen's (1988) multivariate test for cointegration is first applied to four models involving quarterly state data and five variables, along with a national model based on Friedman and Kuttner's (1992) model of money demand, which uses three variables. Each regional model consists of frequently used national and state series, for which theory suggests the possible cointegration of several series pairs. Beginning with all five series, however, one state model is found to be cointegrated over each of 20 successive estimation intervals. The money demand model and one state model are not cointegrated over the same intervals. In the cointegrated case, five-year experimental forecasts show that error correction mechanism (ECM) and Bayesian ECM models outperform all other approaches. More importantly, forecasting performance improves further by respecifying the ECM model based on three cointegrated series pairs rather than the five-component cointegrating vector. For the two noncointegrated systems, the first-difference model suggested by the cointegration/ error correction literature is far superior to VAR in levels over both shortand long-term horizons.     

The direction of migration: a dynamic general equilibrium model

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is developed "to investigate the direction of migration in response to differing demographic and consumption demand behavior, as well as variations in production conditions." The model, which involves a rural sector and an urban sector, incorporates "returns to scale and the natural rate of sectoral population growth as important determinants of the direction of migration, in addition to price and income elasticities, and the sectoral technical change rate with which...previous studies dealt."     

The Importance of Status: The US–ROK Alliance Cohesion and the First Korean Nuclear Crisis, 1993–94

The US–ROK alliance during the First Korean Nuclear Crisis provides the most likely case of high alliance cohesion. Curiously, however, instead of dancing to the American tune in their joint management of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) threat, the Republic of Korea (ROK) caused frequent policy collisions – supporting the US–DPRK negotiations at one point and opposing it at another – at the risk of jeopardizing its physical security. The main finding here is that the variations in the South Korean behavior were a function of their experience of status inconsistency. In particular, the ROK became compliant with the US–DPRK talks when it believed that its desired status marker of taking the leadership role in crisis management was within reach, and unyielding otherwise. These fluctuations ended up not only eroding the US–ROK alliance cohesion but also inhibiting a successful resolution of the crisis. All this bears directly on the fundamental question of whether international politics is to be understood in essentially realist terms.     

Revised conodont and fusuline biostratigraphy of the Bamchi Formation (Pyongan Supergroup) at the Bamchi section,Yeongwol and the Carboniferous–Permian boundary in South Korea

Wang, Q., Wang, Y., Qi, Y., Wang, X., Choh, S.J., Lee, D.C. & Lee, D.J., November 2017. Yeongwol and the Carboniferous–Permian boundary in South Korea. Alcheringa 42, 245–258. ISSN 0311-5518

Six conodont and one fusuline zones are recognized on basis of a total of 25 conodont and 13 fusuline species (including seven unidentified species or species given with cf. or aff. in total) from the Bamchi Formation, Yeongwol, Korea. The conodont zones include the Streptognathodus bellus, S. isolatus, S. cristellaris, S. sigmoidalis, S. fusus and S. barskovi zones in ascending order, which can be correlated with the conodont zones spanning the uppermost Gzhelian to Asselian Age of the Permian globally. The fusuline zone is named the Rugosofusulina complicata–Pseudoschwagerina paraborealis zone. The co-occurrence of the conodont Streptognathodus isolatus (the Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point index for the base of Permian) and Pseudoschwagerina (a Permian inflated fusuline) indicates that the Carboniferous–Permian boundary can be placed in the lower part of the Bamchi Formation in South Korea.

Qiulai Wang* [qlwang@nigpas.ac.cn] CAS Key Laboratory of Economic Stratigraphy and Palaeogeography, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, East Beijing Road 39, Nanjing 210008, PR China; Yue Wang* [yuewang@nigpas.ac.cn] LPS, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, East Beijing Road 39, Nanjing 210008, PR China; Yuping Qi* [ypqi@nigpas.ac.cn] Xiangdong Wang* [xdwang@nigpas.ac.cn] CAS Key Laboratory of Economic Stratigraphy and Palaeogeography, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, East Beijing Road 39, Nanjing 210008, PR China; Suk-Joo Choh [sjchoh@korea.ac.kr] Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea; Dong-Chan Lee [dclee@chungbuk.ac.kr] Department of Earth Sciences Education, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Republic of Korea; Dong-Jin Lee [djlee@andong.ac.kr] Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Andong National University, Andong 36729, Republic of Korea. *Also affiliated with: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, PR China.