Predicting National and Regional Recessions Using Probit Modeling and Interest-Rate Spreads

Abstract This study extends the work of Estrella and Mishkin (1996 , 1998 ) to show that interest‐rate spreads and probit modeling can be used to predict recessions in many states as well as the nation. State recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real gross state product. The yield spread, SPREAD, is defined as the difference between the 10‐year Treasury bond rate and the three‐month Treasury bill rate. The national results are similar to those obtained by Estrella and Mishkin. Probit models are estimated for all 50 states using SPREAD and unemployment insurance claims, UI, as alternative explanatory variables. For 34 of the 50 states, SPREAD is significant at the 0.01 level as a predictor of state recessions. Much weaker results are obtained using UI. Simulations for the 1979–2001 period are used to compute loss functions for the national and state models at probability screens of 30, 40, 50, and 60 percent. The results demonstrate that probit models based on SPREAD can be useful in improving business and policy decisions in many states.     

Assessing the reliability of pRIA for identifying ancient proteins from archaeological contexts

The use of immunological techniques for identifying the origin of proteins and inferring foodstuffs exploited by prehistoric occupations has been conducted for several decades. Cases of experimental laboratory and archaeological studies have shown the potential of these techniques for reliable results. However, very few of these case studies employ archaeological sites that have excellent preservation and high-resolution spatial contexts between identifiable faunal remains, features, and stone tools. We present an assessment of the identification reliability of one immunological technique, protein radioimmunoassay (pRIA), using faunal remains and stone tools from two sites from arctic and subarctic contexts. The results of this research indicate that, even in contexts with excellent preservation, the identifications produced by the pRIA technique are subject to misidentification and cross-reactions due to diagenetic alteration of proteins. We propose a higher minimum reaction value (percent binding of labeled antibody) that mitigates these effects, and renders the pRIA results more reliable for ancient, poorly preserved organic remains.     

Stylistic variability of stemmed obsidian tools (mata’a), frequency seriation,and the scale of social interaction on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Easter Island, or Rapa Nui, has been the focus of much research and speculation, particularly with reference to the island’s hundreds of giant, enigmatic statues and the set of conditions that supported their construction and transportation. In this paper, we analyze an abundant class of lithic artifacts, mata’a, to study of patterns of cultural transmission with implications for the evolution of groups, competition, and scale of socio-political organization among this island population. While these kinds of studies often draw upon assemblages of decorated ceramics, here we show how analysis of variability unconstrained by performance allows us to measure aspects of inheritance related to the manufacture of these artifacts. In the case of mata’a from Rapa Nui, we demonstrate that it is possible to reach falsifiable conclusions about the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the remarkable archaeological record on Rapa Nui.