Predicting National and Regional Recessions Using Probit Modeling and Interest-Rate Spreads

Abstract This study extends the work of Estrella and Mishkin (1996 , 1998 ) to show that interest‐rate spreads and probit modeling can be used to predict recessions in many states as well as the nation. State recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real gross state product. The yield spread, SPREAD, is defined as the difference between the 10‐year Treasury bond rate and the three‐month Treasury bill rate. The national results are similar to those obtained by Estrella and Mishkin. Probit models are estimated for all 50 states using SPREAD and unemployment insurance claims, UI, as alternative explanatory variables. For 34 of the 50 states, SPREAD is significant at the 0.01 level as a predictor of state recessions. Much weaker results are obtained using UI. Simulations for the 1979–2001 period are used to compute loss functions for the national and state models at probability screens of 30, 40, 50, and 60 percent. The results demonstrate that probit models based on SPREAD can be useful in improving business and policy decisions in many states.     

Assessing the reliability of pRIA for identifying ancient proteins from archaeological contexts

The use of immunological techniques for identifying the origin of proteins and inferring foodstuffs exploited by prehistoric occupations has been conducted for several decades. Cases of experimental laboratory and archaeological studies have shown the potential of these techniques for reliable results. However, very few of these case studies employ archaeological sites that have excellent preservation and high-resolution spatial contexts between identifiable faunal remains, features, and stone tools. We present an assessment of the identification reliability of one immunological technique, protein radioimmunoassay (pRIA), using faunal remains and stone tools from two sites from arctic and subarctic contexts. The results of this research indicate that, even in contexts with excellent preservation, the identifications produced by the pRIA technique are subject to misidentification and cross-reactions due to diagenetic alteration of proteins. We propose a higher minimum reaction value (percent binding of labeled antibody) that mitigates these effects, and renders the pRIA results more reliable for ancient, poorly preserved organic remains.     

Recovery of DNA from archaeological insect remains: first results,problems and potential

We report the recovery of short fragments of PCR amplifiable ancient DNA from exoskeletal fragments of the grain weevil Sitophilus granarius (L.) extracted from Roman and medieval deposits in Northern England. If DNA preservation in archaeological insect remains is widespread then many applications in the spheres of evolutionary studies and archaeology can be conceived, some of which are outlined.     

HOUSEHOLD LOCATION AND RACE: A 20‐YEAR RETROSPECTIVE*

ABSTRACT In research conducted some 20 years ago, we elucidated the starkly lower suburbanization propensities of black households in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The paper showed that simulated closure of large socio‐economic gaps between blacks and whites did little to diminish prevailing high levels of residential segregation or otherwise enhance moves by black households to areas of educational, employment, and housing opportunity. Some two decades later and in the wake of significant urban evolution, this paper assesses anew racial variations in residential location choice. Results of the multinomial logit (MNL) analysis indicate large, persistent racial differentials in intrametropolitan residential location choice. While black location choice in 2000 was relatively more dispersed than in 1980, it remained remarkably concentrated in D.C. and Prince George's County. As in our prior analysis, results showed that large simulated gains in black economic and educational status had little effect on prevailing racial segregation. These findings underscore the ongoing, limited access of black households to schooling, employment, and homeownership opportunities available outside traditional areas of settlement. In marked contrast, the locational choices of Latino and immigrant households bore greater similarity to those of whites and were more sensitive to improvements in socio‐economic status.     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

Virtual youth: non-heterosexual young people's use of the internet to negotiate their identities and socio-sexual relations

This article explores the ways that non-heterosexual young people are negotiating their identities and socio-sexual relations on the internet in the UK. Drawing on the key concepts of embodiment and performativity, and based on in-depth qualitative research with non-heterosexual youth and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) youth workers, this article investigates the use of social networking websites which have been specifically designed for LGBT users, and the connections between virtual and material spaces in young people's everyday lives. This research reveals that although the internet is an important medium through which new and existing socio-sexual trajectories are being negotiated, there is also a more complex and multi-dimensional relationship between young people's online and offline realities.