Explaining stability and change of territorial identities

A significant body of work examines the presence and strength of territorial political identities (either subnational, national or supranational). A common assumption of this literature is that the presence and strength of these political identities are invariant over time. Given the importance of political identity, it is surprising that this assumption has not been empirically tested. We address this omission by testing this assumption through considering the question of who is most likely to exhibit variation in the reporting of territorial identities and why. We posit that one source of instability in territorially based political identity is rooted in cognitive dissonance which emerges through the interaction of partisanship and electoral outcomes. We explore these questions using panel data from the British Election Study (1997–2001), the Canadian Election Study (2004–2008). Results reveal that the territorial identities of Labour and Liberal partisans, in Britain and Canada respectively, are compatible with expectations.     

Marked occupational dental abrasion from medieval Kent

A medieval male skeleton displays marked dental abrasion which is considered to be occupational, possible related to carpentry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A medieval example of a sagittal cleft or ‘butterfly’ vertebra

A mature adult medieval male with a rare congenital anomaly, a sagittal‐cleft or butterfly vertebra, is presented. Clinical cases are frequently associated with axial as well as soft‐tissue defects. The present case, based only on skeletal evidence, appears to be an isolated finding. The aetiology of the clefting is outlined and palaeopathological evidence for the condition is included. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting National and Regional Recessions Using Probit Modeling and Interest-Rate Spreads

Abstract This study extends the work of Estrella and Mishkin (1996 , 1998 ) to show that interest‐rate spreads and probit modeling can be used to predict recessions in many states as well as the nation. State recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real gross state product. The yield spread, SPREAD, is defined as the difference between the 10‐year Treasury bond rate and the three‐month Treasury bill rate. The national results are similar to those obtained by Estrella and Mishkin. Probit models are estimated for all 50 states using SPREAD and unemployment insurance claims, UI, as alternative explanatory variables. For 34 of the 50 states, SPREAD is significant at the 0.01 level as a predictor of state recessions. Much weaker results are obtained using UI. Simulations for the 1979–2001 period are used to compute loss functions for the national and state models at probability screens of 30, 40, 50, and 60 percent. The results demonstrate that probit models based on SPREAD can be useful in improving business and policy decisions in many states.     

Assessing the reliability of pRIA for identifying ancient proteins from archaeological contexts

The use of immunological techniques for identifying the origin of proteins and inferring foodstuffs exploited by prehistoric occupations has been conducted for several decades. Cases of experimental laboratory and archaeological studies have shown the potential of these techniques for reliable results. However, very few of these case studies employ archaeological sites that have excellent preservation and high-resolution spatial contexts between identifiable faunal remains, features, and stone tools. We present an assessment of the identification reliability of one immunological technique, protein radioimmunoassay (pRIA), using faunal remains and stone tools from two sites from arctic and subarctic contexts. The results of this research indicate that, even in contexts with excellent preservation, the identifications produced by the pRIA technique are subject to misidentification and cross-reactions due to diagenetic alteration of proteins. We propose a higher minimum reaction value (percent binding of labeled antibody) that mitigates these effects, and renders the pRIA results more reliable for ancient, poorly preserved organic remains.