Book reviews

VIETNAMESE ANTI‐COLONIALISM. David G. Marr. University of California Press, Berkeley, 1972. 0–520–0813–3. xix, 322 pp. $US11.95.

SUKARNO: A POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY. J. D. Legge. Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, 1972. 0–7139–0244–2. 431 pp. $10.50.

THOMAS STAMFORD RAFFLES 1781–1826. SCHEMER OR REFORMER? Syed Hussein Alatas. Angus & Robertson, Sydney, 1971. 0–207–12282–2. 64 pp. $1.50 hard cover, $1.00 paper.

THE BUDGET AND THE PLAN IN CHINA: CENTRAL‐LOCAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS (A.N.U. Contemporary China Papers, No. 3). Audrey Donnithorne. Canberra, 1972. $1.00.

REPORT FROM PEKING: OBSERVATIONS OF A WESTERN DIPLOMAT ON THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION. D. W. Fokkema. Angus & Robertson, Sydney, 1971. 0–207–123497. $4.95.

SIR GEORGE SANSOM AND JAPAN. A MEMOIR. Katherine Sansom. The Diplomatic Press, Tallahassee, Florida, 1972. 183 pp. $US15.00.

ALLIANCE IN DECLINE: A STUDY IN ANGLO‐JAPANESE RELATIONS 1908–23. Ian Nish. Athlone, London, 1972. 0485–13133–1. 424 pp. £7.50 (stg.).

PARTNERS IN PEACE: A STUDY IN INDO‐SOVIET RELATIONS. K. Neelkant. Vikas Publishing House, Delhi, 1972. 7069–0218–1. 192 pp.

INDO‐PAKISTAN RELATIONS (1960–65). Dinesh Chandra Jha. Bharati Bhawan, Patna, 1972. 418 pp. Rs.30.00.

THE LATIN AMERICANS. Victor Alba. Praeger, New York, 1969. 392 pp. $US3.95 paper.

CONSTRAINTS AND ADJUSTMENTS IN BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY. Michael Leifer (ed.). Allen & Unwin, London, 1972. 0–04–327039–5. 210 pp. £2.90 (stg.) paper, £5.00 (stg.) hard cover.

BILLION DOLLAR QUESTIONS: ECONOMIC ISSUES IN AUSTRALIA. J. O. N. Perkins. Sun Books, Melbourne, 1972. 0–7251–0147–4. 199 pp. $2.50 paper.

SECRECY. POLITICAL CENSORSHIP IN AUSTRALIA. Jim Spigelman. Angus and Robertson, Sydney, 1972. 0–207–12543–0. 194 pp. $2.50 paper.

NEW ZEALAND AND JAPAN 1900–1941. M. P. Lissington. Government Printer (A. R. Shearer), Wellington, 1972. 206 pp. $NZ5.75.

NEW ZEALAND AND THE UNITED STATES: 1840–1944. M. P. Lissington. A. R. Shearer, Government Printer, Wellington, New Zealand, 1972. 114 pp. $NZ3.00.

SOUTHERN AFRICA IN PERSPECTIVE. ESSAYS IN REGIONAL POLITICS. Christian P. Potholm and Richard Dale (eds.). The Free Press, U.S.A. 1972. xiii, 418 pp. $14.25.

SOUTH AFRICA — SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES. Heribert Adam (ed.). Oxford University Press, London, 1971. 340 pp. $10.90.

THE COMMISSARIAT OF ENLIGHTENMENT. SOVIET ORGANIZATION OF THE ARTS AND EDUCATION UNDER LUNACHARSKY, OCTOBER 1917–1921. Sheila Fitzpatrick. Cambridge University Press, 1970, 521–07919–5. xxii, 380 pp. $13.20.

MILITARY MEN. Ward Just. Michael Joseph, London, 1970. 256 pp. $6.80.

NUKLEARE MITWIRKUNG: DEE BUNDESREPUBLEK DEUTSCHLAND IN DER ATLANTISCHEN ALLIANZ 1954–1970. Dieter Mahncke. Walter de Gruyter, Berlin and New York, 1972. 3–11–0018209. xvi, 274 pp.

WESTEUROPAISCHE VERTEIDIGUNGSKOOPERATION. Karl Carstens and Dieter Mahncke (eds.). Munich, R. Oldenbourg Verlag, 1972. 3–486–43731–3. 256 pp.     

Methodological Foundations for Public Policy Analysis: A Review Essay

Books reviewed in this articles:
Garry D. Brewer and Peter deLeon, The Foundations of Policy Analysis
Stuart S. Nagel, Policy Evaluation: Making Optimum Decisions
David C. Paris and James F. Reynolds, The Logic of Policy Inquiry
William N. Dunn, Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction
Melvin J. Dubnick and Barbara A. Bardes, Thinking About Public Policy: A Problem-Solving Approach     

Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Wie sozialisiert man eine Hochschule? Die Eröffnungsfeiern der mittelalterlichen deutschen Universitäten und die Gründung der Erfurter Universität (28. April 1392)

In pre-Reformation Germany, nearly all university foundations culminated in elaborated opening celebrations which were closely linked to the local liturgy. This article tries to understand these well-recorded acts as rituals and asks how social knowledge of what a university actually was was transmitted to the non-academic environment. It shows that the opening celebrations were designed both to make the new institution acceptable and to distance it from its environment, thus reducing its vulnerability.