A RESIDENTIAL ENERGY MARKET MODEL: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS*

This paper develops a multisector residential energy policy model. This model hypothesizes that household energy behavior is affected by conditions in the housing, the mortgage finance, and the energy markets. The relationships encompassed by the model are specified with 32 single and simultaneous equations and tested with quarterly data drawn from behavior in Delaware. After the testing and evaluation of the model for its statistical performance, thereafter, three energy policies are simulated a 5 percent residential energy consumption tax, a set of conventional insulation requirements for all new housing, and a passive solar-installation requirement for all new housing. These policy choices are evaluated in terms of their impact on energy consumption, prices, demand and size of different types of housing permits, and mortgage financing. Finally, the economic and social implications of these policy impacts are discussed.     

Stirrings at the Periphery: History, Archaeology, and the Study of Dian

Early Chinese texts speak of the Han state conquering the kingdom of Dian in southwest China in 109 B.C. The limited historical record is complemented by archaeolgical discoveries pointing to the presence in Yunnan province of a complex Bronze Age society whose association with the historical Dian has been generally accepted. Historiographic and nonprocessual in nature, archaeology in Yunnan has yet to generate the data needed for a deeper understanding of Dian social structure and change. Whatever its shortcomings, however, Dian archaeology plays a consistent and important role within a system of thought which gives preeminence to the historical record.