MULTIPLIER ESTIMATES: TO BIAS OR NOT TO BIAS?*

ABSTRACT It is well known that multiplier estimates within an interindustry context may be biased when the input coefficients are stochastic. Several conditions have been derived under which the estimates were shown to be biased, all with the same sign. In contrast to these analytical results, however, simulations using a stochastic transactions table unexpectedly reported the unbiasedness of multiplier estimates. This note argues that the sample sizes were too small. It is shown that for increased sample sizes the multiplier estimates are all positively and significantly biased, in line with the analytical results, but the biases are very small.     

Southern African glass beads: chemistry,glass sources and patterns of trade

Three-hundred-and-sixty glass beads from 19 archaeological sites in southern Africa dating between about the 8th and 16th centuries AD were analyzed using LA-ICP-MS, determining 47 chemical elements. The eight different bead series, previously defined on morphological characteristics, possess different glass chemistries. Some bead series were made from plant-ash glasses, others from soda-alumina glasses. Zhizo series beads of the late 1st millennium AD were probably made from Iranian glass. Later bead series were made of glass probably manufactured in South Asia, though there are changes through time in both South Asian glass recipes and bead morphologies.     

RAS‐ING THE TRANSACTIONS OR THE COEFFICIENTS: IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE*

ABSTRACT The biproportional RAS technique has become one of the most important tools to update, regionalize, or balance input–output tables. In this note, we rigorously prove that the estimation of the intermediate transactions matrix yields the same results as the estimation of the input coefficients matrix or the output coefficients matrix. We also show that this does not hold for any of the other updating procedures that have been commonly proposed as an alternative to RAS.     

CREATIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE NETHERLANDS: STRUCTURE, DEVELOPMENT, INNOVATIVENESS AND EFFECTS ON URBAN GROWTH

Creativity is central in stimulating economic growth in cities, regions and advanced capitalist economies in general. There is, of course, no one-to-one relation of the number of firms in creative industries to economic growth. Innovation is a key mechanism explaining the relationship of creative industries with economic performance. Based on an empirical study in the Netherlands we explore the effect of creative industries on innovation, and ultimately on employment growth in cities. In the Netherlands the three specific domains of creative industries - arts, media and publishing, and creative business services - make up 9 per cent of the business population. Drawing on survey data we find that firms in creative industries are indeed relatively innovative. Yet substantial differences are found across the three domains: firms in the arts domain are clearly less innovative, most likely due to a different (less market-oriented) dominant ideology. In addition, firms in creative industries located in urban areas are more innovative than their rural counterparts. We go on to analyse how the concentration of creative industries across cities is connected with employment growth. With the exception of the metropolitan city of Amsterdam, we find no measurable spill-over effect from creative industries. The presence of the creative class (in all kinds of industries other than creative ones) appears to be a much stronger driver of employment growth than creative industries.     

Anatomical evidence for the antiquity of human footwear: Tianyuan and Sunghir

Trinkaus [Trinkaus, E., 2005. Anatomical evidence for the antiquity of human footwear use. J. Archaeol. Sci. 32, 1515–1526] provided a comparative biomechanical analysis of the proximal pedal phalanges of western Eurasian Middle Paleolithic and Middle Upper Paleolithic humans, in the context of those of variably shod recent humans. The anatomical evidence indicated that supportive footwear was rare in the Middle Paleolithic but became frequent by the Middle Upper Paleolithic. Based on that analysis, additional data are provided for the Middle Upper Paleolithic (∼27,500 cal BP) Sunghir 1 and the earlier (∼40,000 cal BP) Tianyuan 1 modern humans. Both specimens exhibit relatively gracile middle proximal phalanges in the context of otherwise robust lower limbs. The former specimen reinforces the association of footwear with pedal phalangeal gracility in the Middle Upper Paleolithic. Tianyuan 1 indicates a greater antiquity for the habitual use of footwear than previously inferred, predating the emergence of the Middle Upper Paleolithic.     

Dolní V stonice 15: Pathology and Persistence in the Pavlovian

Several lines of archaeological and human palaeontological data from the Moravian earlier Gravettian (or Pavlovian) indicate a high level of mobility among these earlier Upper Palaeolithic human populations. The congenitally abnormal young adult Dolní V stonice 15 human remains support this pattern. Dolní V stonice 15 suffered serious developmental abnormalities, most likely as a result of the X-linked dominant form of chondrodysplasia calcificans punctata, that included pronounced infantile and minor later childhood developmental defects of dental enamel (enamel hypoplasia), asymmetrical curvature and angular deformities of the proximal femora, asymmetrical shortening of the femora, a diaphyseal deformity of the distal right humerus, a probable healed left ulnar fracture with associated deformity of the radial diaphysis, elevated length asymmetries of the forearms, and an unusual pattern of anomalies of tooth position and number. These are combined with trivial intervertebral articular degenerations, plus localized pronounced osteoarthritis of the right glenohumeral joint and right second and fifth ray hand proximal interphalangeal joints. Yet, there is little asymmetry of the lower limbs distal of the mid-femora, and both diaphyseal hypertrophy of the humeri, femora and tibiae and relative arm and leg muscle attachment size and moment arms indicate a level of skeletal hypertrophy average to high for an earlier Upper Palaeolithic human. The severe upper limb osteoarthritis may indicate a pattern of pronounced and repetitive carrying or dragging of heavy loads. These data indicate the ability of the population to keep a severely affected individual alive through development, yet they also emphasize the necessity for all individuals to participate actively in the elevated mobility and overall activity levels of these earlier Upper Palaeolithic human populations.