SQUARE PEGS IN ROUND HOLES: PROGRAM EVALUATION AND ORGANIZATIONAL UNCERTAINTY

It is argued that variation in uncertainty about social program goals and causal processes should influence the selection of evaluation designs and methods. Eighteen prominent evaluation reports are examined to contrast predicted evaluation strategies derived from theory about organizational uncertainty with the actual evaluation methods used. It was found that the actual design, measurement, and analysis procedures were frequently different from procedures that were compatible with the kinds of program uncertainty described in the evaluation reports. It is suggested that theory and practice in program evaluation can be improved by systematically incorporating organizational concepts that would contribute to the selection of evaluation methods.