Bayesian Regression and the Expansion Method

This paper shows that within a Bayesian frame of reference the propensity to regard a model as invariant can be formalized into a prior probability density function of the parameters of an expanded formulation in which this model is encapsulated. The Bayesian approach allows to bring to the surface the implications of alternative levels of commitment to invariance assumptions on the results of empirical analyses, and can quantify the comparative strength of alternative drift specifications. The “expanded” Bayesian regressions are demonstrated by an example focusing upon the effectiveness of family planning.     

A Comprised Archaeological History of Taiwan through the Long-Term Record of Heping Dao,Keelung

We present the results of six years of archaeological work carried out in Heping Dao, Keelung, northern Taiwan. The site has revealed a rich archaeological record spanning a sequence that comprehends most of the history of Taiwan, including the most salient historical landmarks in it. The study of this long-term sequence of habitation in Heping Dao throughout prehistory to current times, allows us to attempt a historical archaeology of the longue duree of the place that in turn enables the establishment of comparisons between periods and raising of specific questions, among them: the general understanding of cultural transformation along the Neolithic and the Iron Age, and in turn the transition Iron Age/Aboriginal historic times in Taiwan, which in our view has to be observed as a history of continuity rather than of interruptions; the recognition of the Chinese presence in Taiwan in the pre-European period; the implantation of the European colony and its effects on the local populations; the differing material remains and impacts caused by the presence of pre-European Chinese and the Qing occupation; and the potential for a comparison between the European and the Japanese colonial projects as seen in the material record.     

Multi-resolution morpho-bathymetric survey results at the Pozzuoli–Baia underwater archaeological site (Naples,Italy)

Here we show the results of two morpho-bathymetric surveys carried out on the underwater archaeological area of the Pozzuoli Bay (Naples, Italy). Such area is enclosed in the Campi Flegrei active volcanic complex, where bradyseism and recent volcanic activity strongly influenced the coastline shape over the last 2 Ka. The Digital Elevation Model (DTM) of the seafloor allowed to draw the main archaeological features of the Bay, that also include the military complex of Portus Iulius and the ancient thermal and villa complex of Baianus Lacus. The extraction of archaeological features from DTM was achieved thanks to the use of a GIS-derived tool based on the profile curvature algorithm. Thus, the Villa dei Pisoni (1st Century B.C.) and the thermal complex of Secca delle Fumose were investigated by using ultra-high resolution DTMs, that show the presence of Roman pilae for the protection of coastal buildings and also the inner planimetry of the Villa dei Pisoni complex. The observation of coastal engineering structures give also the opportunity to formulate some hypothesis on the evolution of morphology and of the sedimentary pattern of the area, while depth of archaeological remains allowed a rough computation of the rate of subsidence, resulted to be 2.55 (±0.5) mm/y for the Eastern sector (Pozzuoli) and 2.90 (±0.5) mm/y for the western (Baia).     

L'ethno‐histoire et sa méthode. Etude de quelques pratiques ludiques et festives en Castille

Ce travail tente de présenter quelques possibilités intéressantes pouvant naître de la collaboration entre l'ethnologie et l'histoire, cela à partir d'une étude concrète de comportements festifs et ludiques, représentatifs de la Castille, et plus exactement d'un vaste espace correspondant approximativement à la limite sud de l'actuelle Communauté Autonome de Castille et León. L'analyse commence par les informations documentaires les plus caractéristiques de la fin du Moyen‐Age et du début de l'époque Moderne. Ces données sont complétées par les résultats obtenus postérieurement au cours d'un travail sur le terrain dans la zone de Cuéllar, région où les références des documents sont les plus nombreuses et les plus explicites. Tout cela sert de base à certaines réflexions méthodologiques sur les avantages que peut apporter l'éviction de critères d'analyse conventionnels qui établissent trop souvent une frontière et une séparation excessive et étroite entre les deux disciplines.     

The Effect of Public Infrastructure on the Private Productive Sector of Spanish Regions

In this paper we analyze the effect of infrastructure on the cost and productivity performance of the private productive sector of Spanish regions over the period 1980–1993. We use a dual approach based on cost functions that allows us to recover the usual parameters estimated with production functions. In addition, we obtain rates of return and cost elasticities of production factors at the regional level. Our framework explicitly considers that some factors are quasi-fixed and their volume can differ from their optimal endowment levels. Our results indicate that the public sector has contributed significantly to enhance productivity and reduce costs in the private sector of almost every Spanish region. Nevertheless, there is still scope for the government to continue its investment efforts, given that there remains an appreciable gap between observed and optimal public capital, and we find that in the long run, public capital promotes private investment.