SERVICE NEEDS AND MUNICIPAL EXPENDITURES*

The difficulties involved in assessing the meaning of municipal expenditures are examined in view of the fact that dependency upon municipal services varies among and within jurisdictions. A cross-sectional analysis of spending in the five largest cities in Connecticut illustrates how considerations of human needs can affect the interpretation of spending (although they do not alter legal obligations or the financial reality of fiscal conditions). The possibilities and limitations associated with this approach to municipal expenditures are conveyed in terms of questions of public policy.     

Book reviews

Mohammed Ayoob, The Middle East in World Politics. Croom Helm Ltd., London, 1981, pp. 217. $10.95

Charlotte S.M. Girard, Canada in World Affairs, Volume XIII, 1963–1965. Canadian Institute of International Affairs, Toronto, 1980, pp. 372. $Can27.00 (cloth), $Can10.00 (paper).

Morton A. Kaplan, Towards Professionalism in International Theory: Macrosystem Analysis. The Free Press, New York, 1979, pp ix + 182. $US17.95.

Holly Sklar (ed.), Trilateralism The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. Black Rose Books, Montreal, 1980, pp. 604. No price given.

Michael Mandelbaum, The Nuclear Question: The United States and Nuclear Weapons 1946–1976. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1979, pp. 276. £ 12.50.

Graham Kearns, Arms for the Poor. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Canberra, 1980, pp. 131. $7.00.

John G. Keliher, The Negotiations on Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions: The Search for Arms Control in.Central Europe. Pergamon Press, New York, 1980, pp. 204. No price given.

Michael Sexton, War for the Asking: Australia's Vietnam Secrets. Penguin Books Australia, Ringwood, 1981, pp.212. $5.95.

Ian McGibbon, Blue‐Water Rationale: The Naval Defence of New Zealand 1914–1942. Government Printing Office, Wellington, 1981, pp xxi + 446. $NZ45.00.

Erhard Fordran and Paul J. Friedrich (eds.), Rüstungskontrolle und Sicherheit in Europa. Europa Union Verlag GMBH, Bonn, 1979, pp. 374. No price given.

Alan Rix, Japan's Economic Aid. Croom Helm, London, 1980, pp. 286. £14.95.

K.H. Digby, Lawyer in the. Wilderness, Data Paper No. 114, Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., 1980, pp. xi + 102. $US5.75.

R.B. Smith and W. Watson (eds.), Early South East Asia: Essays in Archaeology, History and Historical Geography. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1979, pp. xv + 561. $56.00.

Allan Bollard, Agricultural Project Design and Evaluation in an Island Community, Australian National University Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 15, 1979, pp. xiii + 228. $8.00.

Philip J. Eldridge, Indonesia and Australia: The Politics of Aid and Development since 1966. Australian National University, Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 18, 1979, pp. xviii + 233. $8.00.

Paul Harrison, The Third World Tomorrow: a report from the battlefront in the war against poverty. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1980, pp. 380. $7.95.

R. T. Shand and H. V. Richter (eds.), International Aid: Some Political, Administrative and Technical Realities. Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 16, The Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1979, pp. 278. $9.00.

Seweryn Bialer, Stalin's Successors. Leadership, Stability and Change in the Soviet Union. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1980, pp. 312. £12.50.     

Agricultural variation and human fertility in antebellum Pennsylvania

Focus in this discussion is on research designed to examine human fertility variation in 59 Pennsylvania counties in 1850 and 1860. The research goes beyond previous historical studies in examining the relationship between land quality and fertility and in separating the possible impacts of settlement from the availability of land for agricultural purposes. The measure of human fertility used in the analysis was the child-woman ratio, defined as the number of children aged 0-4/1000 white women aged 15-49. In 1850 the child-woman ratio ranged from 488-889. The child-woman ratio fell slightly between 1850 and 1860, and county level variation was reduced. Yet, Pennsylvania counties varied substantially in fertility levels during this period. The range between the highest and lowest fertility countries was over 400 children in 1850 and almost 350 in 1860. The set of agricultural variables displayed expected differences at the 2 time periods. The excess demand for farmsites increased between 1850 and 1860, while the variation in demand decreased by over one-half, reflecting additional settlement within all acres of the state. The settlement ratio increased over the decade; the sex ratio declined, most likely in response to outmigration westward. The agricultural variables were all negatively related to the child-woman ratio and were statistically significant, except for the labor/acre variable. The strongest correlation in 1850 was between the excess demand for farmsites and fertility. This coefficient indicated that the greater the excess demand for farmsites, the lower the child-woman ratio. This relationship was attentuated somewhat for 1860, yet it continued to be negative and statistically significant. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were all related to fertility in the expected direction, but only 5 of the 7 correlations were statistically significant in 1850 and 6 in 1860. The settlement ratio, sex ratio, percent urban, distance to urban place, and the measure of female age composition were all significantly related to fertility in 1850 and 1860. The study results support the growing body of research which has identified agricultural opportunity as a significant factor in fertility in rural areas of 19th century America. The findings also suggest that the importance of agricultural opportunity extended beyond the frontier period.     

Book reviews

Louise Overacker: Australian Parties in a Changing Society: 1945–67, F. W. Cheshire, Melbourne, 1968. pp. xi + 337, $3.95.

P. Y. Medding: From Assimilation to Group Survival: A Political and Sociological Study of an Australian Jewish Community, F. W. Cheshire, Melbourne, 1968, pp. 309 + xiii, $6.00.

John R. Williams: John Latham and the Conservative Recovery from Defeat 1929–1931, APSA Monograph 10, Sydney, 1969, pp. 28, 50 cents from APSA, School of Political Science, University of N.S.W., P.O. Box 1, Kensington, N.S.W. 2033.

L. G. Churchward: Contemporary Soviet Government, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1968, pp. 366 + xix, $6.65.

A. R. Hall: The Stock Exchange of Melbourne and the Victorian Economy 1852–1900, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, 1968, pp. 267 + xiii, $7.95.

A. L. May: The Battle for the Banks, Sydney University Press, 1968, $5.00.

Robin Gollan: The Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Origins and Early History, Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1968, pp. vii + 179, $5.00.

Ronald F. Stinnett: Democrats, Dinners and Dollars, The Iowa State University Press, Ames (Iowa), 1967, pp. 310, $6.30. University of Sydney.

P. N. Troy, ed.: Urban Redevelopment in Australia, Research School of Social Sciences, A.N.U., pp. 441.