Population studies

A number of studies have been published about the population change in New Zealand between 1936 and 1986. During this time an intellectual and demographic revolution also took place simultaneously. From 1961 and 1986 the population increased from 2.4 million to 3.3 million mainly because of Polynesian immigration, and the elderly and females also increased. The Maoris became urban. Mortality stayed stable, but fertility declined to below replacement level in the 1980's. Murray Wilson (1988) analyzed the relationship of fertility and mortality in terms of a post-transitional (developed) society like Australia or the European norm of a 2-children family. In his view the youth culture, television, and female aspirations greatly influenced childrearing. Daniel Noin (1988) examined the current state of geographical research on mortality from a methodological point of view finding wide differences in mortality in Quebec, Brussels, Paris, and London attributable to culture. Mosley and Chen (1984) argued that social, cultural, and economic factors to mortality are mediated by individual, household, and community variables. Jones and Moon (1987) dealt with medical geography in the context of the consumption of health care and disease ecology. Momsen and Townsend (1987) addressed the role of women in developing countries stating that gender is socially created and it examined the worldwide subordination of women. In the 1980's a host of other authors have also touched on the subject of the demography of gender analyzing discrimination against female children, unmarried American women, and single parent families. Yet Fahey (1988) stated that gender was only regarded relevant by Australian geographers as a demographic variable.     

Incorporating the effects of spatial structure in discrete choice models of migration

Discrete-choice theory and logit models are evaluated for their usefulness in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. The authors "argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto [Canada], we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals."     

South Africa: The politics of pre‐negotiations, 1989–1991

The international community has hailed South African state president, F.W. de Klerk, a ‘liberator’. De Klerk liberalised the political process and deracialised aspects of state and society. But how committed to racial reform are be and his government? The regime's policies, strategies and tactics over the last two years raise many concerns that the international community has either baulked or simply ignored. The argument that the government must be rewarded and encouraged is fallacious. The South African government reacts only to pressure. The international community acted prematurely by lifting some sanctions and is undermining the prospects for a post‐apartheid society based on equal rights.     

Modeling Migration Careers,Using Data from a British Survey

Development of more sophisticated techniques for modeling longitudinal data has implications for improving our understanding of migration. This paper uses longitudinal data from the British Social Change and Economic Life initiative to disentangle the effects of population heterogeneity, progress through the life cycle and secular change on observed migration differentials. The data consist of retrospective life histories from people sampled in several contrasting localities in Great Britain, in which residential moves can be linked to changes in occupation and household structure. We present a framework for analysis of data of this type using a generalized linear modeling approach, together with results concerning variations in the probability of migration with age, gender, and changes in household and occupational circumstances. Of particular note is the evidence of substantial duration-of-residence effects and an unexpected later-career increase in migration propensity.