Electoral and partisan influences on Australian fiscal policy from Menzies to Hawke

I examine the controversial questions of whether or not partisanship and electoral motives shape the fiscal policies of Australian governments. I also extend the partisan model of policy choice for the Australian case. Specifically, using time‐series data for the financial years 1962–63 through 1989–90,1 explore partisan and electoral influences on the overall fiscal stance and the personal income transfer payments of the Commonwealth government Results indicate that, net of the influences of inertia in the policy process and of variations in economic forces, partisanship and elections play significant roles in determining both overall fiscal policy and income transfer outlays. Analyses reveal that fiscal policies become more expansionary across the electoral cycle while Labor and coalition governments have large but diminishing partisan effects cm policy over their terms in office.     

Book reviews

Peter Edwards with Gregory Pemberton. Crises and Commitments: The Politics and Diplomacy of Australia's Involvement in Southeast Asian Conflicts 1948–1965. Sydney: Allen & Unwin, in association with the Australian War Memorial, 1992. xix + 515 pp. $45.00.

J.D.B. Miller and RJ. Vincent (eds). Order and Violence: Hedley Bull and International Relations. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1990. vii + 220 pp. $55.00.

Carl Bridge (ed.). Munich to Vietnam. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 1991. 237 pp. $24.95.

Gary Brown. Breaking the American Alliance. Canberra Papers on Strategy and Defence No.54, 1989. 171pp. $17.00.

G. Withers (ed.). Commonality and Difference: Australia and the United States. Australian Fulbright Papers No.1. Sydney: Allen & Unwin for the Australian‐American Educational Foundation, 1991. 138 pp. $19.95.

John S. Gibson. International Organizations, Constitutional Law and Human Rights. New York: Praeger, 1991. xvii + 265 pp. $US45.00.

J. Ronald Engel and Joan Gibb Engel (eds). Ethics of Environment and Development: Global Challenge and International Response. Tucson: University of Arizona Press, in association with the IUCN, 1990. xv + 264 pp. $US29.95 (cloth), $US14.95 (paper).

Stephen Ryan. Ethnic Conflict and International Relations. Aldershot: Dartmouth Publishing, 1991. xxviii + 200 pp. No price given.

K.M. de Silva and R.J. May (eds). Internationalization of Ethnic Conflicts. London: Pinter Publishers for International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Sri Lanka, 1991. x + 272 pp. $84.25.

Robert C.R. Siekmann. National Contingents in United Nations Peace‐Keeping Forces. Doedrecht: Martinus Nijhoff, 1991. xv + 229 pp. $US82.00.

Mara R. Bustelo and Philip Alston (eds). Whose New World Order? What Role for the United Nations? Leichhardt: The Federation Press, 1991. xiv + 157 pp. No price given.

H. Brauch and R. Kennedy (eds). Alternative Conventional Defense Postures in the European Theater: The Impact of Political Change on Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control. New York: Crane Russak; Basingstoke: Taylor and Francis, 1992. xxi + 279 pp. £35.00.

Robert F. Miller (ed.). The Development of Civil Society in Communist Systems. Sydney: Allen & Unwin, 1992. iv + 187 pp. $19.95.

David W. Hunter. Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union. An Interdependence Perspective on Sanctions. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991. xii + 163 pp. £40.00.

Paul Hainsworth (ed.). Breaking and Preserving the Mould: The Third Direct Elections to the European Parliament (1989) — the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. Belfast and Coleraine: Policy Research Institute, The Queen's University of Belfast and the University of Ulster, 1992. v + 223pp. £9.95.

Yue‐man Yeung and Xu‐wei Hu (eds). China's Coastal Cities: Catalysts of Modernization. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1992. xvi + 330 pp. $US38.00 (cloth).

Freedom in Exile. The Autobiography of the Dalai Lama of Tibet. Cardinal Books, 1991. 308 pp.

Vo Nhan Tri. Vietnam's Economic Policy Since 1975. Singapore: Institute of South East Asian Studies, 1990. xi + 253 pp. $S42.50 (cloth), $S32.00 (paper).

Robert Hopkins Miller. The United States and Vietnam 1787–1941. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1990. ix + 234 pp. No price given.

Judith A. Stowe. Siam Becomes Thailand: A Story of Intrigue. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1991. xii + 394 pp. $US39.00 (cloth), $US16.95 (paper).

Salim Said. Genesis of Power. General Sudirman and the Indonesian Military in Politics 1945–49. North Sydney: Allen & Unwin, 1992. xxi + 185 pp. $24.95.

Burhan Magenda. East Kalimantan: The Decline of a Commercial Aristocracy. Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Cornell University, 1991. viii + 113 pp. $US11.00.

Khong Kim Hoong. Malaysia's General Election 1990: Continuity, Change and Ethnic Politics. Singapore: ISEAS, 1991. 54 pp. $US5.00.

Stephanie Lawson. The Failure of Democratic Politics in Fiji. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1991. vii + 307 pp. $90.00.

Asesela Ravuvu. The Facade of Democracy: Fijian Struggles for Political Control 1830–1987. Suva: Reader Publishing House, 1991. xii + 106 pp. $15.00.

William Sutherland. Beyond the Politics of Race. An Alternative History of Fiji to 1992. Political and Social Change Monograph No.15, Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University, 1992. vii + 251 pp. $16.00.

Sue Rabbitt Roff. Overreaching in Paradise: United States Policy in Palau since 1945. Juneau, Alaska: The Denali Press, 1991. ix + 245 pp. No price given.

Gary Smith. Micronesia: Decolonisation and US Military Interests in the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. Canberra: Peace Research Centre, Australian National University, 1991. ix + 131 pp. $12.00.

Robert Aldrich (ed.). France, Oceania and Australia: Past and Present. Department of Economic History, University of Sydney, 1991. 203 pp. No price given.

Stephen Henningham. France and the South Pacific; A Contemporary History. Sydney: Allen and Unwin,1992. xvii + 292 pp. $24.95.

R. Briscoe, G.S. Nair and A. Sibbald. Enterprise Support Organizations for the South Pacific: Problems and Proposals. Honolulu: Pacific Islands Development Program, East‐West Center, 1991. xi + 89 pp. $US8.00.

Euan Fleming and Hugh Coulter (eds). Agricultural Export Marketing in the South Pacific: The Future Role of Marketing Authorities. Canberra: National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, Pacific Policy Paper 8, 1992. xii + 255 pp. $25.00.

M. Thea Sinclair and M.J. Stabler (eds). The Tourism Industry: An International Analysis. Wallingford: C.A.B. International, 1991. xi + 244 pp. £30.00.

D. Harrison (ed.). Tourism and the Less Developed Countries. London: Belhaven Press, 1992. xiii + 186 pp. £35.00.     

A DYNAMIC INTRSECTORAL,MODEL OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. The dynamic relationship between sectoral value added and regional economic growth is analyzed using a stochastic intersectoral model estimated by ordinary least squares and linear systems techniques. A state-space portion of the model identifies the time element of sedoral value added. Dynamic multipliers, tracing the temporal path of regional growth, are calculated for the state of Georgia over the period 1963–1986. This application shows that the impacts of sectoral shocks can follow cyclical as well as monotonic patterns and that the direction and magnitude of the impact may change over time.