COINTEGRATION BETWEEN U.S. WHEAT MARKETS

ABSTRACT. Average monthly price data from twelve hinterland markets and the Houston port price for wheat are studied in a cointegration framework using the Engle-Granger "two-step" procedure and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. Out-of-sample forecasts from an error correction model are compared to those from a vector autoregression fit to levels and a univariate autoregression fit to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling these (cointegrated) data as a levels vector autoregression, rather than as an error-correction process, results in significantly higher error bias, but lower error variance, at long horizons.     

Peace Protest and Policy

The tremendous fluctuations in public mobilization against United States nuclear weapons policy, a relatively stable policy over four decades, present a difficult riddle to social scientists. Since the dawn of the nuclear age small groups of activists have consistently protested both the content of United States national security policy and the process by which it is made. Only occasionally, however, has this protest spread beyond a handful of relatively marginal groups, generated substantial public support, and reached mainstream political institutions. This article examines the political cycles of peace movement engagement and quiescence, and their relation to external political context, particularly public policy. I begin with a brief review of the relevant literature on the origins of the movements, noting parallels in the study of interest groups. Building on recent literature on political opportunity structure. I suggest a theoretical framework which emphasizes the interaction between activists choices and political context. I then describe the cycles of peace movement activism and quiescence on nuclear weapons issues in the United States using mass media sources to delineate periods of mobilization. I outline a number of policy variables which may help explain protest mobilization. My conclusions address the importance of policy and political context in explaining movement cycles and the potential influence of protest movements on policy.     

The Greek Neolithic: A new review

The Greek Neolithic, here divided into five phases, is the oldest in Europe. Geographically, it is the closest to the Near East and has thus long been seen as an impoverished derivative of the latter. However, recent research has tended to emphasize the autochthonous nature of Neolithic development in Europe, including Greece. The Greek Neolithic economy, which was based almost entirely on domesticates, and its densely packed, long-lived villages strongly recall the Near East, as do also the early emphasis on fine, decorated, nonculinary pottery and the wealth of figurines. On the other hand, the evolution of stylistic patterns is specifically Greek, although generally related to trends in the Balkans. Originality in the development of the Greek Neolithic is also seen in its latest phase, with apparent decreases, rather than increases, in site density, social differentiation, and, to some extent, long-distance trade. At the same time, however, the dichotomy became much sharper between the rich agricultural plains of northern Greece and the more pastoral(?) regions of the Peloponnese and Cycladic Islands; this presages similar contrasts during the Bronze Age.     

EXIT AND VOICE: STRATEGIES FOR CHANGE IN BUREAUCRATIC-LEGISLATIVE POLICYMAKING

This paper uses the case of telecommunications deregulation to construct a model of interest group behavior in bureaucratic-legislative policymaking. The model posits three common policymaking arenas: closed, open, and the transformational period between the two. Three features of these policymaking arenas are explored: (1) changes in the numbers of interested actors, leading to (2) changes in the policy-making environment and to (3) the shifting strategic interests of actors. Borrowing the concepts of “voice” and “exit” from Hirschman (1970), alternative interest group strategies are found to occur in different policymaking environments, or arenas, which in turn depend in significant part on the numbers of interested actors involved. Voice works when interests are or appear to be relatively complementary. Exit is used when voice fails, that is, in permeable arenas of many actors with conflicting interests.     

Book reviews

Adam Watson, Diplomacy: the dialogue between states. Eyre Methuen, London, 1982, pp.239. $28.95.

Desmond Ball and J.O. Langtry (eds). Civil Defence and Australia's Security in the Nuclear Age. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Canberra, and George Allen and Unwin Australia, Sydney. 1983, pp. 359. $12.95.

Bruce Grant, Gods and Politicians. Allen Lane, Ringwood, Victoria, 1982, pp.wi + 190. $16.95.

B.A. Santamaria, Santamaria, Against the Tide. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1981, pp. 382. $22.50

M.M. Kritz. C.B. Keely and S.M. Tomasi (eds.), Global Trends in Migration: Theory and Research on International Population Movements. The Centre for Migration Studies, New York, 1981, pp.xi + 433. $US14.95 (cloth), $US9.95 (paper).

Robert Cassen, Richard Jolly, John Sewell and Robert Wood (eds). Rich Country Interests and Third World Development. Croom Helm, London and Canberra, 1982, pp. 369. $27.75.

David Childs, The GDR: Moscow's German Ally. George Allen and Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xiii + 346. $49.95 (cloth), $19.95 (paper).

Alexander Shtromas, Political Change and Social Development; The Case of the Soviet Union. Verlag Peter Lang, Bern, 1981, pp 173. S Fr 40.

Joel K. Goldstein, The Modern American Vice Presidency. The Transformation of a Political Institution. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1982, pp. xxii + 409. $US36.50 (cloth) $US 10.50 (paper).

Colin Mackerras, Modern China ‐ A Chronology from 1842 to the Present. Thames and Hudson, London, 1982, pp. 703. $60.00

John H. Fincher, Chinese Democracy: The Self Government Movement in Local. Provincial and National Politics, 1905–1914. Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1981, pp. 27s6. $23.95.

A.J. Youngson, Hong Kong: Economic Growth and Policy. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong, 1982, pp. 163. $10.95.

Peter Wesley‐Smith, Unequal Treaty 1898–1997: China. Great Britain and Hong Kong's New Territories. Oxford University Press, Hong Kong. 1980, pp. XV + 270. $39.00.

Michael Leifer, Indonesia's Foreign Policy. George Allen & Unwin, London, 1983, pp. xvii + 198. $39.95.

Grant Evans, The Yellow Rainmakers. New Left Books/Verso, London, 1983, pp. 202. $33.50 (cloth) $10.50 (paper).

Stewart Firth, New Guinea Under the Germans. Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1982, pp. xiii + 216. $25.00.

R.J. May (ed.), Micronationalist Movements in Papua New Guinea. Political and Social Change Monograph No. 1, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, 1982, pp. xi. + 486 $9.50.

Politics in Melanesia. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. xxi + 170. $4.00

Foreign Forces in Pacific Politics. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1983, pp. xv + 325, $6.00.

Mike Moore, A Pacific Parliament. Asia Pacific Books, Wellington and the Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific, Suva, 1982, pp. 86. No price given.

Australia and the South Pacific. Conference Papers and Reports. Centre for Continuing Education, Australian National University, Canberra, 1983, pp. 157. $8.00.

Alan R. Taylor, The Arab Balance of Power, Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, 1982, pp. xii + 165. $US22.00 (cloth) $US11.95 (paper).

Tareq Y. Ismael, Iraq and Iran: Roots of Conflict. Syracuse University Pess. Syracuse. 1982, pp xii + 226. $US24.00 (cloth) $US12.95 (paper).

Peter Gubser, Jordan: Crossroads of Middle Eastern Events. Croom Helm, London and Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1983, pp. xi+ 139. £13.50.

Ibrahim Ibrahim (ed.), Arab Resources: The Transformation of a Society. Croom Helm, London, 1983, pp. 304. $24.25.

David Goldsworthy, The International Politics of the Namibian Dispute, Discussion Paper No. 3, 1982, pp. 41

Jock McCulloch, South Africa's Invasion of Angola: Many Reasons Why. Current Issues Brief No. 7, 1981, pp. 10 both published by the Legislative Research Service, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra.