Aggregation of Regional Economic Time Series with Different Spatial Correlation Structures. 具有不同空间相关结构的区域经济时间序列集成

In this article, we compare the relative efficiency of different forecasting methods of space‐time series when variables are spatially and temporally correlated. We consider two cases: (1) univariate forecasting (i.e., a space‐time series aggregated into a single time series) and (2) the more general instance of multivariate forecasting (i.e., a space‐time series aggregated into a coarser spatial partition). We extend the results in the literature by including the consideration of larger datasets and the treatment of edge effects and of negative spatial correlation. We first introduce a statistical framework based on the space‐time autoregressive class of random field models, which constitutes the basis of our simulation study, and we present the various alternative forecasting methods considered in the simulation. We then present the results of a Monte Carlo study related to univariate forecasting. In order to allow a comparison with the findings of Giacomini and Granger (2004), we consider the same forecasting strategies and the same combinations of the parameter values used there, but with a larger parametric set. Finally, we extend our analysis to the case of multivariate forecasting. The outcomes obtained provide operational suggestions about how to choose between alternative forecasting methods in empirical circumstances.     

New discoveries in the Piramide Naranjada in Cahuachi (Peru) using satellite,Ground Probing Radar and magnetic investigations

The detection of buried earthen structures by using remote sensing techniques is still an open issue and a strategic challenge as crucial as it is complex. It is crucial because earthen archaeological remains are widely present thoughtout the world (in South America, Asia, Africa) and it is complex due to the subtle physical contrast between earthen remains and the surrounding subsoil.     

A legal theory for the nation state. Pasquale Stanislao Mancini,Hegelianism and Piedmontese liberalism after 1848

ABSTRACT

This article aims to shed light on the Italian liberals’ contribution to the post-1848 European debate on nationality, representative government and the theory of the state, through focus on the political thought of Pasquale Stanislao Mancini. Building on Vico and Hegel’s philosophies of law and history, Mancini developed a sui generis tradition of national liberalism that founded representative government on a theory of the state that identified freedom and nationality. Far from being the passive and provincial adaptation of Anglo-French currents of liberalism, Mancini’s political thought, while engaging with the contemporary European debates on freedom and constitutional government, nurtured an original constitutional theory that connected conflicting ideas of cosmopolitan freedom and national patriotism.     

The avatars of modern poetry

This paper examines the reactions to the British labour unrest of 1910–1914 among the writers associated with two Edwardian periodicals, the Catholic Distributivist New Witness, and the advanced socialist New Age. Both papers were thrown into sympathy with the strikes whether through libertarianism, hatred of capitalism or the glorification of violence and struggle. This prompted theoretical discussions on the future organisation of labour in which liberty and consensus were precariously balanced, and mediated through elitism. By examining the contested and ambiguous origins of guild socialism, the paper draws tentative conclusions about its troubled legacy.     

Italian immigration: the origins,nature and evolution of Italy’s migratory systems

This article reconstructs the historical development of foreign settlement in Italy. It shows how Italy is part of a number of different migratory patterns, some of which are interconnected, while others are quite strongly differentiated. This diversity means that the standard images that link Italian immigration with a high degree of social marginalization do not correspond to the more complex realities, and by focusing on short-term aspects simply conflate highly differentiated patterns of migration into one single type. The article begins by reconstructing the patterns of foreign settlement in Italy since the time of Unification and then goes on to analyze the mechanisms of contemporary migrant flows to demonstrate how these derive from very different sets of motives and expectations. The motivations also explain why different immigrant groups respond to the different forms of regulation adopted by the Italian state. The article concludes by reviewing the data presently available on the numbers of foreigners currently in Italy, which indicate that over the last twenty years those numbers have decreased.