Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions*

Abstract. Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only “business‐as‐usual” conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.     

Characterisation of archaeological mortars from Pompeii (Campania,Italy) and identification of construction phases by compositional data analysis

This work describes the compositional characterisation of coccciopesto and natural pozzolanic mortars sampled in the Regio VI area of the archaeological site of Pompeii, with particular reference to the Casa di Pansa in Insula 6 and Casa 17 in Insula 2. Samples were studied by optical microscopy and analysed by XRF, SEM-EDS, LA-ICP-MS and XRPD. The XRF and SEM-EDS data, subjected to multivariate analysis (cluster analysis), identified the three main construction phases involved in building the Casa di Pansa. In addition, mineralogical and petrographic characteristics of the aggregate were determined and found to be compatible with pyroclastic deposits from the volcano Vesuvius. Study revealed C–S–H phases in the binder, due to pozzolanic hydration phemomena of hydrated lime with cocciopesto and natural pozzalana.