Spatial Variations,Contextual and Social Structural Influences on Voting for the ALP at the 1996 Federal Election: Conclusions from Multilevel Analyses

Multilevel modelling of individual survey data from the 1996 Australian Election Study and aggregate contextual Census data is used to investigate the extent of spatial variations in voting at the 1996 election, and to examine potential explanations for the variations. The size of the variations was about the same as at the 1993 election, and was again mainly at the divisional rather than the state level. However, unlike in 1993, only a small amount of the variations could be explained by differences in the individual sociodemographic compositions of the areas, suggesting that local influences were more important in 1996 than 1993. The most significant change in the effect of the individual-level variables between the two elections was that the influence of being personally unemployed completely changed direction (working against the ALP in 1996, whereas it had favoured it in 1993), although the estimated strengths of several others also changed. I suggest that the concentration of the 1993 election on the 'Fightback' package might be the main cause of many of these differences. The nature of the main contextual influences is similar to those at the 1993 election, involving an urban-rural effect, a local economic effect and an ethnic effect, confirming that these are more than short-term factors. However, there also remain somewhat larger unexplained local influences than in 1993. Detailed investigation of the ethnic contextual effect suggests the presence of a specifically anti-Asian influence.     

Non-dietary Marks in the Anterior Dentition of the Krapina Neanderthals

A sample of 82 anterior teeth from Krapina (Croatia) was studied using a light binocular microscope and a scanning electron microscope to document the presence of non-dietary dental scratches. The patterns of distribution, location and orientation of these marks suggest two different aetiologies: scratches on the labial-occlusal enamel border appear to be related to the action of clenching abrasive materials between teeth, while the scratches primarily in the centre of the labial face correspond to cutmarks as described by other researchers. These scratches may have been produced when flake tools involved in processing materials held between the anterior teeth came into contact with the labial enamel face. Alternatively, they may simply reflect some consistent operation which pulled hard objects across the labial surfaces of the anterior teeth. In either case, the marks on the central face of the labial surface provide evidence for manual dexterity in the Neanderthals. Of the seven Krapina individuals which show a predominant pattern, one shows a pattern of left oblique marks, while six provide evidence of right-handedness. Coupled with other Neanderthal or Upper Pleistocene individuals with these patterns, right-handedness is the dominant pattern in 90 per cent of the documented cases. One complicating factor in the analysis of these scratches in the Krapina hominids is that marks of a similar morphology are found in several anterior teeth of Ursus spelaeus from the site. While resembling the marks on the hominid incisors, the scratches on the bears lack a dominant orientation on the labial face and appear to be more variable in their widths. Despite the occurrence of some similarities in the enamel scratches between ursids and hominids at Krapina, the study of anterior dental marks provides information about manipulative activities which are unique to ancient humans. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Osteoarchaeol., 7 : 133–149 (1997) No. of Figures: 9. No. of Tables: 5. No. of References: 34.     

Return to reason: reviving political realism in western foreign policy

Twenty‐first‐century political crises stretching from Europe to the Middle East and the Asia–Pacific have undermined the worldview that governed post‐Cold War western thinking about a liberal end of history. This worldview assumed that shared norms and transnational institutions would transform the state based‐order. In this context, the use of force is considered appropriate only for humanitarian ends meeting a set of predetermined axioms laid down in chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Yet for any strategy to be effective—in an international order subject to change—a clear political aim is required, which might deviate from the general rule. Preoccupied with universal postulates, legal normativism has lost sight of the particular. The argument put forth in this article is that the failure of contemporary western foreign policy in the twenty‐first century to address this limitation or to prioritize political ends has led to strategic confusion from Afghanistan to Syria and Ukraine. In this context, it might be useful to reappraise the utility of abstract rationalist approaches to global governance and return instead to an earlier understanding of statecraft that avoided premature generalizations and treated norms as maxims of prudence rather than axioms requiring universal application.