The ripple effects of large-scale transport infrastructure investment

We analyze the general equilibrium effects of an asymmetric decrease in transport costs, combining a large-scale spatial dynamic general equilibrium model for 267 European NUTS-2 regions with a detailed transport model at the level of individual road segments. As a case study, we consider the impact of the road infrastructure investments in Central and Eastern Europe of the European Cohesion Policy. Our analysis suggests that the decrease in transportation costs benefits the targeted regions via substantial increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare compared to the baseline, and a small increase in population. The geographic information embedded in the transport model leads to relatively large predicted benefits in peripheral countries such as Greece and Finland, which hardly receive funds, but whose trade links cross Central and Eastern Europe, generating profit from the investments there. The richer, Western European nontargeted regions also enjoy a higher GDP after the investment in the East, but these effects are smaller. Thus, the policy reduces interregional disparities. There are rippled patterns in the predicted policy spillovers. In nontargeted countries, regions trading more intensely with regions where the investment is taking place on average benefit more compared to other regions within the same country, but also compared to neighboring regions across an international border. We uncover that regions importing goods from Central and Eastern Europe enjoy the largest spillovers. These regions become more competitive and expand exports, to the detriment of other regions in the same country.     

NASA and the Decision to Build the Space Shuttle, 1969–72

T he technological prowess of the U nited S tates was symbolized by what became known as the space shuttle, which the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began to work on in the late 1960s. With the shuttle program NASA planned to facilitate its aggressive space-exploration effort by providing low-cost, reusable transportation to and from Earth's orbit. NASA officials compared the space program's traditional use of expendable launch vehicles to throwing away a railroad locomotive after every train trip, whereas a reusable shuttle would offer cost-effective, routine access to space. Approval of the shuttle initiative required complex political maneuvering by NASA and its supporters between 1969 and 1972. The twists and turns in the approval process actually shaped the final direction that the shuttle program took, demonstrating the pitfalls of decision making by compromise and the challenges of managing large-scale technology programs within the federal government.¹     

Interpreting Spatial Economic Structure and Spatial Multipliers: Three Perspectives

The measurement and interpretation of spatial economic structure have presented many problems for analysts. The notion of a spatial multiplier has received even less formal attention; part of the motivation for this paper is the examination of the degree to which sectoral decomposition analysis might prove useful in illuminating the paths of interaction across space that are associated with changes in exogenous activity levels. In this paper, we present three perspectives that examine spatial structure in the context of an aggregated interregional social accounting matrix for Bangladesh. These perspectives examine structure at the micro-, meso-, and macrolevels and are interpreted with the assistance of several alternative methods, including structural path analysis, the field of influence, the superposition principle, multiregional feedback loop analysis, and the Matrioshka Principle; the results are interpreted analytically and cartographically. Some attention is also devoted to the formulation of a general approach to spatial multipliers. It is shown that the structure of flows and the structure of influence reveal patterns that, taken together, provide important insights into an understanding of structure and may prove to form the basis for the eventual formal presentation of the spatial multiplier.     

Policy Gridlock in Waste Management

Current federal hazardous and low-level radioactive waste management policies (under conjoint federalism) fail to balance national concerns for consistency with state concerns for equity, discretion, and adequate resources. Congress should expand conjoint federalism to permit states to charge differential fees on imported hazardous waste as it does for low-level radioactive waste. For low-level radioactive waste, clarification of the "take title" issue makes the present framework for state discretion implementable, given sufficient time.     

Nestorian Crosses from Jabal Berri

Two small crosses, one of bronze and the other of mother-of-pearl, from the surface of a site near Jabal Berri in northeastern Saudi Arabia are presented. They are attributed to the Nestorian community of Bet Qatraye which is known from literary sources to have flourished during the Sasanian period.     

Pretransition marital fertility variation over time: was there deliberate control in England?

An important line of research concerning historical fertility patterns in currently developed countries of Europe has concluded that, prior to the fertility transition, marital fertility was essentially constant over time, and deliberate fertility control was virtually unknown. It has been argued that variations over time in overall fertility were largely the consequence of variations in nuptiality. Other researchers have challenged these views and present evidence for the existence of a significant minority of fertility controllers in pretransition populations. In this article, we find support for this second view and argue that (1) there was significant, non-random variation in marital fertility over time, prior to the transition; (2) in many cases, this variation in marital fertility was large relative to contemporaneous variations in nuptiality; and (3) in a substantial minority of the cases, the variation over time in pretransition marital fertility was so large that it is suggestive of deliberate fertility control. Thus, our findings question the view of fertility transition as an innovation in deliberate marital fertility control. While most of our evidence is based on data from England and Wales, we find corroboration of our key results in other European data.