UNRAVELLING THE POPULATION TURNAROUND IN RURAL CANADA

This paper attempts to unravel the rural population turnaround in Canada through a disaggregation and analysis of rural growth rates by (1) two decades, 1961–71 and 1971–81, (2) the farm and non-farm components of rural population, (3) provincially based regions, and (4) area types based on proximity to urban centres. Following a discussion of the various definitional and boundary-matching issues arising from the use of the Census of Canada, results are presented in tabular and map form. Although rural growth rates did in all likelihood exceed urban rates in the 1970s, the extent of this turnaround is undoubtedly exaggerated in the census data, primarily because of definitional and reclassification effects. Moreover, setting aside data-related anomalies, there is strong evidence that much of this rural population growth was in fact ‘spillover’ from urban centres. Cet essai traite du virage pris par la population rurale au Canada au moyen d'une décomposition et d'une analyse des taux de croissance rurale où interviennent(1) les deux décennies 1961–71 et 197 1–81, (2) les com-posantes agricoles et non-agricoles de la population rurale, (3) les régions définies sur une base provinciale, et (4) les types de zones établies à partir de la proximité par rapport aux centres urbains. Les problèmes de définition et de démarcation d'aires comparables soulevés par I'utilisation des données du Recensement du Canada sont abordés en premier lieu. Puis, les résultats sont présentés sous forme de cartes et de tableaux. Bien que les taux de croissance rurale aient, selon toute vraisemblance, dépassé les taux urbains dans les années 70, I'ampleur de ce virage réulte sans doute d'exagérations dans les données du recensement, prin-cipalement attribuables aux effets de délimitation et de reclassification. De plus, mises à part les anomalies relatives aux données, il y ade bonnes raisons de croire que cette croissance de la population rurale provient en grande partie du décongestionnement des centres urbains.     

Net migration,unemployment, and the business cycle

"An empirical test of the effects of exogenous shocks upon a region's population size is conducted in the framework of an equilibrium locational model. The model emphasizes the separation of endogenous from exogenous factors, a point omitted in most empirical studies of aggregate migration. Exogenous changes are manifested in the local relative cost of living and the local relative unemployment rate. Hypotheses are tested using a national sample of youth, in addition to census, data [for the United States]. Surprisingly, a simple measure of the size of shock to a regional economy has the greatest explanatory power compared to more sophisticated measures based on prior business cycles."     

NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM MODELS OF URBAN LOCATION AND TRAVEL CHOICES: A RETROSPECTIVE SURVEY*

ABSTRACT The origins and development of the network equilibrium problem are traced and interrelated. Two principal formulations are considered the network equilibrium problem with variable travel demand, and the combined model of trip distribution and traffic assignment. The relation of these models to subsequent developments concerning mode choice, residential location, estimation of origin-destination tables from link flows and stochastic route choice are then reviewed.     

Incorporating the effects of spatial structure in discrete choice models of migration

Discrete-choice theory and logit models are evaluated for their usefulness in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. The authors "argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto [Canada], we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals."     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.