The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.     

TRADE CENTER EVOLUTION IN THE GREAT PLAINS*

ABSTRACT Empirical analysis has lagged behind the impressive additions to the theoretical literature on trade center systems during the past 15 years. This study of the trade center system in Saskatchewan is an attempt to begin to redress the imbalance and to test some of the recently formulated theoretical propositions. Communities are identified according to functional classifications for 1961 and 1981 with the aid of a cluster analysis program, and the validity of the groupings are verified using multiple discriminant analysis. Changes in the size, spacing, and function of clusters and individual communities during the 20-year interval are described and an effort is made to prdvide explanations for the changes observed.     

A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE JOURNEY-TO-SHOP WITH PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT In this paper we extend the contextual theory of demand to consider rational consumer behavior when the household must deal with some random fluctuation in the prices it faces. Prices at stores reflect “advertised specials,” which are potential cost reductions random across goods, and random in-store price changes, which can only be observed by visiting the store. Our theory of rational behavior includes: (1) calculation by the household of an ex ante plan for its planning period; (2) modification to take account of advertised specials; and (3) rational search behavior to take advantage of random fluctuations observable only on a given day. This theory utilizes an active cash balance as a buffer against random variations from planned daily expenditures, and reformulations of trip circuits to account for patterns of cost-minimizing search.     

A HEDONIC MODEL OF INTERREGIONAL WAGES,RENTS, AND AMENITY VALUES*

ABSTRACT This paper develops a general multimarket hedonic model appropriate for a national, interregional study of wages, housing prices, and location-specific amenities. The model encompasses the effects of interregional location, intraurban location, and city size. Typically, hedonic studies focus on a single market such as labor or housing and ignore interactions implicit in a more global compensation mechanism. Examination of the comparative statics of our model indicates that single-market differentials are partial prices and are unreliable measures of amenity values in an interregional context. Unbiased amenity values are estimated for a comprehensive set of amenities using data on housing prices for 34,414 households and wages for 46,004 workers from the 1980 Census of Population and Housing. Statistically significant differences in housing prices and wages are found due to amenities.     

GAMBLING IS HARD WORK: CARD PLAYING IN TIWI SOCIETY

This paper examines the gambling activities of Tiwi women and men of North Australia and situates the activities within the anthropology of work. It is shown that gambling for money redistributes an unequal resource (wages and pensions) while the derivative game using beer rather than money redistributes an equal resource unequally. The principal conclusion is that for women the activity may be equated to foraging — a low risk activity but fundamental for personal status in that it is directed toward providing daily subsistence, while for men the activity closely resembles hunting — a high risk activity where success is less likely but also essential for personal status.