TROPICAL DEFORESTATION AND FOREST MANAGEMENT UNDER THE SYSTEM OF CONCESSION LOGGING: A DECISION-THEORETIC ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. Deforestation caused by concession logging is often the result of harvest decisions which focus on short-run profits rather than on long-run sustainable harvest yields. A sequential-decision model of this type of behavior is here developed which focuses on a logger's annual decisions of whether or not to remain in compliance with the terms of a concession contract. The contract stipulates harvesting procedures for a sustained forest yield, and noncompliance is taken to result in deforestation. An optimal decision policy for the concession logger is characterized in terms of optimal-stopping theory, and is employed to construct payoff incentives which encourage compliance. In particular, a forest management problem is formulated which focuses on the effectiveness of partial inspection policies in deterring noncompliant behavior. General necessary and sufficient conditions for the effectiveness of such policies are established, and are given a more operational form for the Markov case. A numerical example based on actual concession-contract data is also developed which suggests certain policy implications.     

Local Government Policymaking and Management in Russia

Local government in Russia is characterized by the collapse of traditional relationships between legislative and executive powers and between different levels of executive and legislative hierarchies. The re-definition of these relationships involves a struggle for power pursued against a backdrop of radical systemic change in the economic and social spheres. These changes are accompanied by a breakdown (and gradual realignment) of the system of distribution, which has accelerated the process of economic and social destabilization in the larger cities. The response of local administrations to the problems generated has been hampered by the fiscal crisis that affects both national and local levels of government. This article reviews the changing relationship between governmental levels and between legislative and executive powers in the context of these broader developments, and in the context of Russian and Soviet traditions of local government. Overall the article notes the perceived failure of the democratization of the legislature at local level to deal with the crisis, and the consequent shift of power towards a strengthened executive.     

A nineteenth-century case of carcinoma of the prostate,with a note on the early history of the disease

A case of prostatic carcinoma is described in the skeleton of a named individual who died in 1834. The tumour was recognized from widespread periosteal new bone throughout the skeleton and by the presence of sclerosing metastases in many bones, including the pelvis and all the vertebrae. A number of features of the disease present here are said to be uncommon in modern patients, including spiculated periosteal new bone and some degree of spinal stenosis. In two previous cases of prostatic carcinoma described in the literature, periosteal new bone was a prominent feature and was probably responsible for the disease being recognized. It is likely that if skeletons from mature males were routinely X-rayed, considerably more cases would be noted and a more accurate estimate of the prevalence of this disease in the past would thus be ascertained. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The distribution of osteoarthritis of the hands in a skeletal population

The distribution of osteoarthritis of the hands was studied in 101 skeletons from archaeological sites in England. The results are similar to those found in epidemiological studies of modern populations. Osteoarthritis of the hands was more common in females than in males, and in females tended to involve a greater number of joints. The distal and proximal interphalangeal joints were commonly affected, the former more frequently than the latter, but otherwise the disease was largely confined to the first ray of the hand, centred on the trapezium. It is concluded that the pattern of osteoarthritis in the hand has probably not changed greatly over several hundred years.