FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT.  This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.     

Another Dating Revolution for Prehistoric Archaeology?

Transitions to the Howiesons Poort Industry and other early modern human cultural phases have conventionally been explained as direct or indirect responses to major climatic and ecological fluctuations. Advances in optically stimulated luminescence dating have now provided the time resolution necessary to refute these explanations. However, for improvements in dating methods to have a revolutionary impact on the archaeology of early modern human evolution, the correction of these flawed narratives can only be regarded as a first step. What is more important is that the discipline now embraces the opportunity to analyse cultural entities in terms of their internal temporal structure, and hence to realign praxis with contemporary evolutionary theory.     

Dietary change in Fijian prehistory: isotopic analyses of human and animal skeletal material

We examine evidence for prehistoric diet in the Fiji Islands through the analysis of stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) for 26 samples of human and animal bones from various archaeological sites, time periods, and local environments. The oldest individuals in this study, dating to about 2700 BP and living on the small island of Waya, consumed a predominantly marine-based diet. Subsequent populations on this island showed reduced consumption of marine resources, with greater reliance on terrestrial ones, throughout the cultural sequence. In contrast, populations of humans and pigs living inland on Viti Levu, the largest island, relied on terrestrial resources since at least 1500 BP. Thus, our results suggest that human and pig diets throughout Fijian prehistory relied variably on marine or terrestrial resources, and this distinction is largely a product of geography. This finding and our analyses provide a model for understanding ancient diets in Remote Oceania.     

Boundary making in anti-corruption policy: behaviour,responses and institutions

Boundaries are an increasing focus for academics and practitioners seeking to understand public policy dynamics. In anti-corruption policy how these boundaries are established and by whom has far-reaching implications for public trust. Drawing on interview data, this paper explores the enduring tensions and administrative conflicts at play in three key aspects of the anti-corruption boundary making process: behaviour, responses and institutions. The evidence presented demonstrates that these boundaries are unstable and unresolved. While some tensions, such as those between morality and the law, are enduring, many of the administrative conflicts indicate a sensible and purposeful balance between the important considerations of accountability and responsiveness on the one hand, and efficiency and effectiveness on the other, is yet to be achieved.