‘Too little,too late’? Science,policy and Dutch Elm Disease in the UK

The Dutch Elm Disease outbreak of the late 1960s and early 1970s was arguably one of the most dramatic environmental events to affect the British countryside in the last fifty years. The demise of over 28 million elms destroyed the much celebrated, and publicly valued, ‘elmscapes’ of lowland England and brought about extensive habitat loss. During the middle and later phases of the epidemic, the policy response from the UK Forestry Commission, Ministry of Agriculture and local government came to be seen as ‘too little, too late’. Yet forty years after the outbreak it is still unclear whether the epidemic could have been better managed and how far any lessons can be drawn for the way present day disease risks to trees should be tackled. Drawing on the extensively documented (but hitherto unexplored) public record of the outbreak held at Forest Research and the National Archives, together with materials from retrospective interviews conducted by the authors with scientists and policymakers closely involved in the epidemic at the time, this paper presents a fresh analysis of Dutch Elm Disease in the UK. The paper seeks to explain the catastrophic outcome of the outbreak, not only in terms of the underlying (and highly malign) pathology of the disease itself, but also because of an initially inaccurate scientific assessment of the nature of the threat constructed within a small but influential community of forest pathologists and policy officials.     

Tectonic evolution of a Paleozoic thrust fault influences the hydrogeology of a fractured rock aquifer,northeastern Appalachian foreland

In polyorogenic regions, the superposition of structures during a protracted tectonic history produces complex fractured bedrock aquifers. Thrust‐faulted regions, in particular, have complicated permeability patterns that affect groundwater flow paths, quantity, and quality. In the Appalachian foreland of northwestern Vermont, numerous bedrock wells that are spatially related to the Paleozoic Hinesburg thrust have elevated naturally occurring radioactivity and/or low yields. The association of groundwater quality and quantity issues with this thrust was a unique opportunity to investigate its structural and hydrogeologic framework. The Hinesburg thrust juxtaposed metamorphic rocks of the hanging wall with sedimentary rocks of the footwall during the Ordovician. It was then deformed by two orthogonal Devonian fold sets and was fractured during the Cretaceous. Median well yields in the hanging wall aquifer are significantly lower than those of the footwall aquifer, consistent with the respective permeability contrast between metamorphic and carbonate rocks. For wells drilled through the Hinesburg thrust, those completed closest (vertically) to the thrust have the highest median yields, whereas others completed farther below have yields in the footwall range. The geochemical signature of the hanging wall and footwall aquifers correlates with their whole‐rock geochemistry. The hanging wall aquifer is enriched in alpha radiation, Na+K‐Cl, Ba, and Sr, whereas the footwall aquifer is enriched in Ca‐Mg‐HCO₃ and alkalinity. Wells that penetrated the Hinesburg thrust generally have hanging wall geochemical signatures. A simple hydrogeologic model for the permeability evolution of the Hinesburg thrust involves the ductile emplacement of a low‐K hanging wall onto a high‐K footwall, with subsequent modification by fractures.     

Indigenous Participation in Constitutional Development

In 1950 the first four Solomon Islanders were nominated for the Advisory Council. Further constitutional reforms were made between 1960 and 1978, slowly preparing the Protectorate for a transfer of power through a unitary state operating under the Westminster system. British policy was guided by previous colonial experiences in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and to a limited extent by local circumstances, particularly through constitutional review committees. This paper addresses three central questions. Did Solomon Islanders make their own decisions when establishing the structure of their constitution and parliament, or were these decisions made for them by British and other advisers? What attempts were made to include Indigenous political structures in the governing process? To what extent did events elsewhere influence Solomon Islands political development?     

Leadership and voting: the connection at the state level

While it is now well established that Australian party leaders at the national level influence political choice in federal elections, little systematic study has been undertaken of the equivalent role that State Premiers and Opposition Leaders might play. In the 2001 Australian Election Study (n=2010), questions were asked of a national probability sample of voters about respondent feelings towards their State Premier and State Opposition Leader, in addition to equivalent questions about Prime Minister John Howard, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley and other major political figures in federal politics. The data generated by this survey thus provide an opportunity to investigate the impact that contemporary State political leaders have on electoral choice. The analysis produces mixed results, but the findings show that State leaders generally do have an impact on voting behaviour in State elections, although in some cases this influence is eliminated when account is taken of voter attitudes towards the federal leaders. The analysis also affords an opportunity to test the extent of crossover between State and federal politics, in terms of how much State leaders influence federal voting and vice versa. While the results are somewhat uneven, they do indicate that some State leaders influence federal voting and that the federal leaders do influence voting in some States.