Understanding Chinese Consumption: The Impact of Hukou

Since the onset of the economic reforms more than three decades ago, the Chinese growth miracle has been based on exports and investment. While strong output growth was maintained even during the financial crisis, imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable development path, recent government policies have aimed to improve the role of private consumption. This article argues that China's institutional framework is an impediment to this strategy, as it weakens the incentives of households to consume. As well as a low level of social security and highly regulated financial markets, the authors stress the relevance of the hukou system as the main driver for modest consumption, especially in recent years. After controlling for different income levels, the average propensity to consume is found to be significantly lower for migrants, as their access to public services is limited. If not accompanied by relevant reforms, the urbanization strategy of the government is likely to raise the number of migrants with limited hukou rights, further increasing the downward pressure on consumption. Therefore, in the absence of reforms in the household registration system, the shift towards consumption‐driven growth is at risk.     

Appeals for European solidarity as calls for colonial violence: British and German public debates around 1900

Abstract

While recent scholarship has emphasized the role of the colonial experience in the development of the idea of Europe and European integration, notions of European solidarity in the age of imperialism have largely been ignored. This paper investigates the specific context in which journalists and politicians voiced such pleas for solidarity, explores the motivations for them, and probes their limits in times of tension. A closer look at the actors involved illustrates the strictures placed on ideas of European solidarity and illuminates the limited potential of projects of integration prior to 1914. However, latter considerations notwithstanding, a discourse on European solidarity in a colonial context did emerge in the decades before the First World War, allowing early proponents of integration to view colonialism as a field for common European action.     

Agroindustrial Soilscapes in the Caribbean: A Geochemical Perspective from Betty’s Hope,Antigua

ABSTRACT

This research examines the chemical impacts to soils caused by the industrialisation (mechanisation and mass production) of sugar and rum manufacturing in the Caribbean during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Soils and sediments excavated from Betty’s Hope sugar plantation (1674?1944) are chemically characterised by mild acid extraction and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy. These data are integrated with analyses of soil properties, including colour, texture, pH and organic matter, to examine activity patterns in areas associated with a large multi-use building dating to the period of industrialisation. Quantitative analysis of the data employs zero-order and partial linear correlation, multidimensional scaling, principal components analysis and spatial interpolation using semivariogram modelling and Kriging. The results reveal the locations of activity areas inside the building, which aids in understanding its role in sugar and rum production. The research also reveals evidence for soil contamination by heavy metals (lead and mercury), suggesting that plantation sites from this period may be polluted with industrial wastes. These findings have implications for activity reconstruction in the archaeological past as well as environmental and community health issues today.     

Noah and Joseph Effects in Government Budgets: Analyzing Long‐Term Memory

This article examines the combined effects of what mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot has termed “Noah” and “Joseph” effects in U.S. national government budgeting. Noah effects, which reference the biblical great flood, are large changes or punctuations, far larger than could be expected given the Gaussian or Normal models that social scientists typically employ. Joseph effects refer to the seven fat and seven lean years that Joseph predicted to the Pharaoh. They are “near cycles” or “runs” in time series that look cyclical, but are not, because they do not occur on a regular, predictable basis. The Joseph effect is long‐term memory in time series. Public expenditures in the United States from 1800 to 2004 shows clear Noah and Joseph effects. For the whole budget, these effects are strong prior to World War II (WWII) and weaker afterward. For individual programs, however, both effects are clearly detectable after WWII. Before WWII, budgeting was neither incremental nor well behaved because punctuations were even more severe and memory was not characterized by simple autoregressive properties. The obvious break that occurred after WWII could have signaled a regime shift in how policy was made in America, but even the more stable modern world is far more uncertain than the traditional incremental view.     

Skeletal distribution of degenerative changes in vertebral osteophytosis,vertebral osteoarthritis and DISH

In order to comprehend the condition of vertebral osteophytosis, vertebral osteoarthritis and DISH (diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis) with respect to diagnosis and aetiology, the vertebral and peripheral (appendicular) frequency and distribution pattern of degenerative joint changes of 176 rather affluent citizens were analysed from the late medieval city of Dordrecht in Holland. Patterns of frequencies with respect to age and sex were found to be similar essentially to those of a present-day Dutch suburban village population. Frequencies for vertebral osteophytosis were twice those for vertebral osteoarthritis, and both increased with age in both sexes. The individual pattern of vertebral osteophytosis and vertebral osteoarthritis seems to indicate that each disorder possesses its own progressive identity. From the distribution pattern and frequency of peripheral osteoarthritis it was concluded, with respect to the vulnerability of developing this complication under physically moderate life conditions, that causal factors for vertebral osteophytosis are less important than those for vertebral osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis presented itself as a systemic disorder, affecting synovial joints in general. Finally it was appreciated that, with increasing age, bony outgrowths from joint degeneration become anatomically masked by para-articular ossifications from DISH.