Iron City Blues

S. N. Eisenstadt, Fundamentalism, Ectarianism, and Revolution: The Jacobin Dimension of Modernity     

Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020

We assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, Genocide Watch and the Political Instability Task Force, we evaluate AFP accuracy. We compare AFP accuracy with that of forecasts from the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network. It is relatively rare in most areas of social science that researchers produce (and make public) future forecasts. It is rarer still to evaluate their accuracy once the future has arrived. AFP five-year forecasts are potentially important for genocide and politicide prevention, and have gained attention from policy makers and news media, but a systematic assessment of their accuracy has not been undertaken previously. Our evaluation of past forecast accuracy, with true-positive rates from thirty-three to fifty per cent, true-negative rates around ninety per cent, and area under the curve (AUC) statistics from .81 to .96, gives an indication of how much confidence should be placed in the 2016–20 forecasts.     

Selling surf and turf: throwntogetherness and real estate advertising on the suburbanising east Australian coastline

New residential development is transforming coastal places in Australia. This paper untangles perceptions of coastal change by analysing representations of nature and lifestyles in marketing new residential developments on the New South Wales (NSW) coastline. We focus specifically on master-planned estates (MPEs). In this context MPEs are primarily a consequence of housing affordability and supply dilemmas in capital cities. Their form and character is derided as ‘suburbanisation by the sea’: vandalism of ‘authentic’ coastal cultures. We draw on Massey’s theorisation of place as ‘event’ and a relational politics termed ‘throwntogetherness’ to understand the role of real estate advertising in blending coastal places and MPEs. Our insights are drawn from visits to 19 MPEs for sale on the NSW coast, and discourse analysis of 76 advertisements collected in situ (billboards, signs, banners and brochures). Advertising narratives for new MPEs both sustain and contradict the idea of coastal suburbanisation: portraying permanent settlement by young families as a culture shift and implicating ‘sea change’ configurations of coastal places to do so. This makes lifestyle expectations with coastal nature perplexing. In the throwntogetherness of contemporary coastlines, marked by landscape change and development pressures, real estate advertisements are pivotal in establishing, grounding and guiding change.     

Prediction and its discontents: guidance for Australia from the debate over social science forecasting

The well-documented failure of many experts to predict many events of strategic importance—from 9/11 to the global financial crisis to the Arab Spring—has led to a fashionable belief amongst some academics and popular commentators that prediction is a ‘fool's errand’. Problems inherent in forecasting political events, such as cognitive biases, strategic interaction, complexity effects and various others, make this an attractive position. However, although a proper degree of humility is warranted about the ability to predict strategic events, this article argues that not making predictions at all is not an option. No genuinely workable policy advice could flow to Australian policy makers unless analysts are able, however roughly, to try to forecast the future. Moreover, with some hard, determined work, social scientists have recently produced work which promises to be able to foresee important events such as state failures and civil wars with reasonable accuracy. Experts should be encouraged to make, and should routinely be evaluated on, predictions about their area of expertise. Even failed predictions can be useful in pointing up gaps in knowledge and understanding which would otherwise have remained opaque.     

Recounting,retrieving, rereading: approaches to the history of genocide

This essay, delivered at a conference that commemorated Primo Levi, asks about the continuing status of witnesses' testimony about the Holocaust and genocidal murder as their generation disappears. It finds their particular contribution to lie less in what they report than their claim to moral authenticity, as confirmed by their own suffering; and it points out the problematic aspects of subjective identification this may raise, especially by comparing witnesses' accounts with the alleged authenticity of Holocaust fiction. On the other hand, the limits of archival evidence, which are manifested almost as retrieved archaeological artefacts, are also highlighted, as are the difficulties of history centred on victims as collective protagonists. In the end, it is proposed, keeping witnesses present through continued re-examination and reading forms the historian's only recourse against the inevitable dilemmas of writing the history of mass atrocities.