POPULATION ANALYSIS ON THE MICROCOMPUTER: A SYSTEM OF SOFTWARE PACKAGES

This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes.     

JEWISH AND MORMON AGRICULTURAL SETTLEMENT IN WESTERN CANADA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Mormons and Jews established agricultural settlements in western Canada around the turn of the century. Mormon colonization was generally successful, characterized by its great stability. Abandonment of the land by Mormon communities was rare. In contrast, almost all the Jewish settlements failed. Settlers abandoned their land and retreated to the urban centres of the West. A comparative analysis of the two groups suggests that this difference in agricultural stability may not have been a reflection of prior experience, nor was it necessarily attributable to vagaries of the physical environment. Social structures, religious demands, and institutional backing, along with the geographical concentration and inter connectivity of settlements were critical elements in determining success or failure in agriculture colonization.
C'est au début du siècle que les Mormons et les juifs etablirent dans l'Ouest canadien leurs colonies agricoles. La colonisation des Mormons, caractérisée par sa grande stabilite, réussit dans l'ensemble; rares furent les colonies qu'ils abandonnèrent. Par contre, presque toutes les colonies juives echouerent; abandonnant leurs terres, les colons se retirerent dans les centres urbains de l'Ouest. Une analyse comparative des deux groupes permet de conchre que leur stabilite agricole relative ne fut pas necessairement fonction de leur experience prealable en agriculture; elle ne fut pas non plus attribuable aux seules contraintes géographiques et clirnatiques.
Les structures sociales, les exigences religieuses, l'appui de leurs établissements en plus de la proximité d'autres colonies et leurs interrelations, tous ces facteurs s'avérèrent cruciaux pour déterminer la reussite ou l'échec de la colonisation agricole.     

The Crisis of the 1980s in Sub-Saharan Africa,Latin America and the Caribbean: Economic Impact,Social Change and Political Implications

The purpose of this paper, prepared as a background document for the UNRISD/University of the West Indies conference on Economic Crisis and Third World Countries, is to provide a framework for consideration of societal changes accompanying economic recession and restructuring in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. It is the central argument of the paper that adaptation to crisis should not be considered a temporary phenomenon, interrupting a single, lineal process of modernization which can be expected to resume its course once current difficulties are overcome. On the contrary, both crisis and adjustment have profoundly modified the structure of incentives within which individuals and households must attempt to ensure their livelihood, encouraging new patterns of behaviour with long-term implications for the nature of the economy, society and political practice. After a brief review of the macroeconomic background of crisis in each region, this central hypothesis is explored through a very preliminary analysis of the changing life chances of various kinds of upper, middle and lower income groups — emphasizing not only the costs but also the opportunities which have been associated with economic restructuring. Some individual and collective reactions to change are then considered, before raising a series of questions concerning the implications of crisis and adjustment for the state and civil society.