Analyzing Cross-classified Data with Inherent Spatial Dependence

Despite considerable recent progress in the methods available for the log-linear analysis of categorical data arising from complex sampling schemes, only a few papers have been published that deal with the parallel phenomenon of dependence induced by spatial sampling. This paper aims to add to the general awareness of this topic and suggests some new ideas for tackling the problems raised. In the paper it is shown that the method that has been proposed for the valid selection of log-linear models given spatially dependent data and some derivative methods are somewhat conservative when compared to an approach based on a model of spatial dependence outlined in section 4. The method also serves as a data exploratory technique to enhance the use of the more robust conservative approach.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.     

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC CAPITAL STOCK USING THE NEG WAGE EQUATION: A SPATIAL PANEL DATA APPROACH

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1985–2004, a period that is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short‐run equilibrium of New Economic Geography (NEG) theory. This is estimated using various spatial panel models with either fixed or random effects to allow for individual heterogeneity. Using these models, we find consistent evidence that productivity depends directly on the public capital stock endowment of each province, but also there is evidence of negative spillover effects from changes in capital stock in neighboring provinces.     

Jeremiah's new covenant: Jer 31, 31-34

Abstract

Old Testament texts are proof of how, for centuries, the attitude of the people towards the nations was a matter of debate.

This controversy, which is disputed in the context of diverse subjects, is even debated within the texts by different redactors. His evident that the background of the debate is not so much theological as social in nature

Neither particularists nor universalists could establish a natural relationship with people of the nations. Such a relationship is perceived only here and there between the lines where the focus is on everyday life

The debate between the advocates of particularism and those of universalism continues in the early Christian church     

The significance of Ptolemy’s Almagest for its early readers

The paper explores the historical reasons why Ptolemy's Almagest was cultivated in Antiquity as a legitimate part of ancient culture. It tries to elucidate first the precise nature of Ptolemy's project in the Almagest, its relation to ethics as well as to the particular conception that Ptolemy had of mathematics. It then proposes an explanation for the fact that this treatise, both in Ptolemy's period and afterwards, was studied within the milieu of ancient astrologers.     

Le génocide des Arméniens et l'opinion publique française durant la Première Guerre Mondiale

Durant la Première Guerre Mondiale, la presse parisienne de l'arrière évoque abondamment le génocide des Arméniens, tant pour dénoncer les massacres que pour alimenter un discours propagandiste visant à la mobilisation de guerre de la société civile. Les journaux voient en l'Allemagne l'instigatrice du génocide, plaçant la souffrance arménienne dans la continuité des exactions commises à l'encontre des Belges. Certains journaux parisiens se servent également du génocide des Arméniens pour opposer musulmans et chrétiens dans un discours aux accents de guerre de religion tandis que la presse de droite fait occasionnellement preuve de xénophobie à l'encontre des réfugiés et des victimes. La situation s'inverse même à la fin du conflit; le génocide des Arméniens étant dénoncé comme « bourrage de crâne » dans le but de promouvoir le rapprochement Franco-Turc.