THE INCIDENCE AND REGULATION OF PLANT SHUTDOWNS*

This paper analyzes the proposed plant closing legislation, together with other complementary approaches to the orderly regulation of private capital disinvestment, especially as it occurs in the form of large-scale plant or store shutdowns. The authors also provide a review of the recent data on the incidence and employment impact of shutdowns during the 1970's, in particular industries, by region and by form of ownership.     

Quick Computation of Spatial Autoregressive Estimators

Spatial estimators usually require the manipulation of n² relations among n observations and use operations such as determinants, eigenvalues, and inverses whose operation counts grow at a rate proportional to n³. This paper provides ways to quickly compute estimates when the dependent variable follows a spatial autoregressive process, which by appropriate specification of the independent variables can subsume the case when the errors follow a spatial autoregressive process. Since only nearby observations tend to affect a given observation, most observations have no effect and hence the spatial weight matrix becomes sparse. By exploiting sparsity and rearranging computations, one can compute estimates at low cost. As a demonstration of the efficacy of these techniques, the paper provides a Monte Carlo study whereby 3,107 observation regressions require only 0.1 seconds each when using Matlab on a 200 Mhz Pentium Pro personal computer. In addition, the paper illustrates these techniques by examining voting behavior across U.S. counties in the 1980 presidential election.     

A Note on the Extremities of Local Moran's Iis and Their Impact on Global Moran's I

By defining local Moran's I_i as a ratio of quadratic forms and making use of its overall additivity to match global Moran's I, we can identify spatial objects with a strong impact on global Moran's I. First, we concentrate on the spatial properties of local Moran's I_i expressed by the local linkage degree. Depending on whether we use the W- or C-coding of the spatial connectivity matrix, the variance of local Moran's I_i for a small local linkage degree will be either large or small. Note that spatial objects associated with a local Moran's I_i with a large variance affect the global statistic much more than spatial objects associated with a local Moran's I_i with a small variance. Counterintuitively, global Moran's I defined in the W-coding is most influenced by spatial objects with a small number of spatial neighbors. In contrast, spatial objects with a large number of spatial neighbors exert more impact on global Moran's I setup in the C-coding. Second, we investigate the impact of the empirical data on local Moran's I_i and show that local Moran's I_i will only be significant for extreme absolute residuals at and around the reference location. Clusters of average regression residuals cannot be detected by local Moran's I_i. Consequently, spatial cliques of extreme residuals contribute more to significance tests on global autocorrelation.     

A CONTEXTUAL THEORY OF RETAIL CENTRAL PLACES ON A LINEAR MARKET*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents an initial version of a new theory of central places for retailing activities. Confined to a linear market and using the Contextual Theory of Demand to model consumer behavior, the model extends the economic theory of central places (Eaton and Lipsey, 1982). In its present form, the model specifies four parameters that control the spatial relationship between the locations of households and the equilibrium locations of central places: expenditure shares in consumption, transportation cost functions, storage costs by commodity, and capital costs of retailers. The locational equilibria of the model are optima when all costs are considered.     

A NOTE ON THE POLITICAL EXPENDITURE CYCLE IN LATIN AMERICA*

In an earlier paper I established that Latin American executives both civilian and military, manipulate aggregate public expenditures so as to maximize their chances of retaining office. This paper carries the analysis further by elaborating five probable strategies, each consequent to the socio-political conditions executives face, and links strategies to tradeoffs in various programs' shares of the budget at crucial periods. The results suggest that in fact executives do respond to their survival problems by manipulating expenditure shares.     

'Not Enough Food and Too Many Military Police’: Discipline,Food, and the 23rd Reserve Battalion July – September 1917

This paper seeks to explain the underlying causes of a mutiny that the Canadian artist A.Y. Jackson took part in while stationed in the English village of Shoreham-by-Sea and serving with the 23rd Reserve Battalion. The battalion was filled with convalescents who, having been wounded at the front, were on their way back to France after a stay in ‘blighty.’ The men of the battalion lived in a world of harsh discipline, rigorous physical training and poor-quality rations. Moreover, those who commanded them tended to be ‘shirkers’ –– at least in the eyes of the men of the battalion –– who had avoided going to France, choosing instead to remain in England. A sense of the unfairness of it all pervades the reminiscences of Jackson and other members of the battalion. Officially, the ‘mutiny’ never took place, and the whole incident was swept under the rug after a few high ranking Generals and dignitaries were called in to tour the mess facilities.