Quantification and the Scientific Study of History

Abstract

A survey of the illustrations in art history textbooks reveals that the most important Modern American painters, including Pollock, Johns, and Warhol, failed to produce individual paintings as famous as the masterpieces of a number of major French artists, such as Picasso, Manet, and Seurat. Analysis of the textbooks reveals that art historians do not consider the American artists to be less important than their French predecessors or judge the Americans' innovations to be less important. The absence of American masterpieces instead appears to be a consequence of market conditions. as changes over time in the primary methods of showing and selling fine art reduced the incentive for artists to produce important individual works. This study demonstrates that the study of markets is essential to a full understanding of the development of Modern art.     

Walter Moyle's Machiavellianism,declared and otherwise,in An Essay upon the Constitution of the Roman Government

Walter Moyle's work, An Essay upon the Constitution of the Roman Government, is much more Machiavellian than it initially announces itself to be. Informed by James Harrington's and Niccolò Machiavelli's earlier commentaries on Rome, Moyle readily embraces that on which both of his predecessors agree—the desirability of a republic that seeks armed increase. Harrington, though, explicitly disagrees with Machiavelli's embrace of a tumultuous republic that seeks a return to its beginning through fostering fear. In contrast to Machiavelli, Harrington looks to economic and institutional arrangements that will render a republic so serene and stable that he claims immortality for it. Although initially Moyle forthrightly endorses Harrington's analysis, he ultimately relies on the harshest teachings of Machiavelli to maintain a republic, a reliance which finds him endorsing the distinctively Machiavellian directives to suspect, accuse, and punish its leaders in such a way as to return the republic to its beginnings. These teachings make Moyle's work a vessel for the transmission of a stern, aggressive republicanism. Even in this eventual enthusiastic embrace of Machiavelli's teachings, however, Moyle still displays some hesitation in citing him as the sole source for them as his attributions couple the Florentine's name inaccurately with other, more reputable republicans.     

Bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical and radiocarbon methods

Only a few astrophysical points and synchronisms listed in texts provide anchor points for the absolute chronology of Ancient Egypt. At first we will show how we can re-calculate some of these anchor points by using Sothic dating based on the arcus visionis method, and modelling lunar dates using a Bayesian approach. Then, we will discuss two radiocarbon studies carried out on short-lived Egyptian materials held at the Louvre Museum that could be attributed to particular reigns or other precise periods. Using a Bayesian approach, these dates were combined with the known order of succession and the lengths of reigns. Sothic and lunar dates were integrated as priors in the model. This approach has led to a new proposal for the absolute chronology of Egypt's 18th Dynasty.     

From pedologic indications to archaeological reconstruction: deciphering land use in the Islamic period in the Baida district (north-western Sicily)

The aim of this work was to detect imprints on soil properties from former Islamic land use (9th to 11th century) using a multi-method, soil-chemical approach. Four soil profiles (with buried horizons) found in the vicinities of former Islamic settlements in Sicily were analysed for phosphorus (total, organic and inorganic), nitrogen (total, NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺), carbon compounds (δ¹³C, lipids, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and functional groups), physical and chemical C-fractions and the state of soil weathering. Two soil profiles contained ceramic sherds from the Islamic period. Inorganic nitrogen forms, phosphorous and the PAH content indicated strong impacts from traditional agriculture and/or burning. Radiocarbon dating of soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions from buried horizons showed that distinct changes must have occurred during the Islamic epoch. The isotopic composition of SOC indicated that land use was probably different in earlier times. C₄ plant cultivation was expected but surprisingly lipid analyses did not confirm this. A high amount of aliphates and low C/N ratio indicated a good, long-term SOC stabilisation under the native conditions combined with Islamic land use. The irrigation of the soils probably increased the production of weakly-crystalline Fe forms that helped to stabilise SOC.     

Holocene land-use evolution and associated soil erosion in the French Prealps inferred from Lake Paladru sediments and archaeological evidences

A source-to-sink multi-proxy approach has been performed within Lake Paladru (492 m a.s.l., French Prealps) catchment and a 6-m long sediment sequence retrieved from the central lacustrine basin. The combination of minerogenic signal, specific organic markers of autochthonous and allochthonous supply and archaeological data allows the reconstruction of a continuous record of past human disturbances. Over the last 10,000 years, the lacustrine sedimentation was dominated by autochthonous carbonates and the watershed was mostly forest-covered. However, seven phases of higher accumulation rate, soil erosion, algal productivity and landscape disturbances have been identified and dated from 8400 to 7900, 6000 to 4800, 4500 to 3200, 2700 to 2050 cal BP as well as AD 350–850, AD 1250–1850 and after AD 1970. Before 5200 cal BP, soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from climatic deterioration phases towards cooler and wetter conditions. During the Mid-Late Holocene period, erosion fluxes and landscape disturbances are always associated with prehistorical and historical human activities and amplified by climatic oscillations. Such changes in human land-used led to increasing minerogenic supply and nutrients loading that affected lacustrine trophic levels, especially during the last 1600 years. In addition, organic and molecular markers document previously unknown human settlements around Lake Paladru during the Bronze and the Iron Ages.