Perceptions and Misperceptions of Regime Stability and Iran's Convoluted Rise to Regional Influence

This article seeks to explain revolutionary Iran's convoluted rise to regional prominence over the last three decades. We hold that perceptions and misperceptions of regime stability (both of one's self and of others) by the relevant actors have played a major role in Iran's recent. The main logic is that the success of many strategies employed by relevant regional actors to augment their regional influence (both Iran seeking more influence and others seeking to stem that influence) have crucially hinged on making correct assessments of regime stability. This study has both theoretical and empirical findings. Theoretically, we find that failures to accurately estimate regime stability stem from three main sources: (1) objective uncertainties regarding the target state's level of regime stability, given the high strength of societal forces shaping state‐society relations in the Middle East and given the distinct variation between autocrats in terms of their ability to develop effective counterrevolutionary/repressive tools; (2) ideological blinders, from which both the United States and regional actors frequently suffer, which have often led them to be falsely optimistic regarding the existence of either subversive opportunities or opportunities to stabilize regimes facing domestic pressures; and (3) incorrect theories regarding sources of regime stability which lead experts and policymakers to overlook factors which may destabilize a regime. This article has two major empirical findings. First, Iran's rise may be at least partly attributed to Iran demonstrating a slightly better learning curve at the tactical level (i.e., learning subversive skills from its Lebanese experience in the 1980s–1990s and applying them to Iraq in the 2000s–2010s) as well as at the strategic level (i.e., understanding the limits of its subversive capacities and correctly assessing when it can engage in successful stabilizing operations). Second, two errors committed by the United States have been far more consequential than those committed by Iran for the regional balance of power: First, the George W. Bush Administration myopically opened up subversive opportunities for Iran when it invaded Iraq in 2003 by thinking that it could stabilize a democratic regime and insulate it from outside influence; second, on two occasions Washington overestimated the transformative effect that its concessions to Iran would have in terms of sufficiently empowering reformists so as to bring about complete regime transformation from within.     

How Oil Twists the Hegemon's Arm: The Case of the United States and Saudi Arabia and Their Ambivalent Partnership

The U.S.–Saudi relationship is often seen as an oxymoron. These allies have differed in their foreign policy interests — varied in the need, one for the other — but never severed ties. When the 9/11 attacks are added to the mix, questions are raised about why these ambivalent allies continue to tolerate each other. This study argues that although the United States is the preponderant power, Saudi Arabia has primacy in the energy market. This has caused both countries to remain allies through the different oil crises, the 9/11 attacks, and in spite of the Arab‐Israeli conflict. This contravenes the hegemonic stability theory about alliance formation and duration. Saudi Arabia's roles in the 1973, 1979, 2008, and 2012–2015 oil crises all demonstrate its ability and willingness to act independently of the United States. The fact that it can do this and still maintain its strategic partnership with the United States is incredulous. This invites a revision of the hegemonic stability theory since strong and persistent defection from the hegemon's wishes should catalyze some comparable form of punishment or a severance of the relationship.     

Passive Conformism in Academia: Saudi Organization,Education, and Technology

Academia is expected to act as a cognitive arena in which members intellectually challenge one another, problematize social structures, and destabilize dominant ideologies. It is, supposedly, a cognitively unstable environment wherein intellectualism pushes social boundaries and acts as an agent for social change. It is a training camp wherein people come to be trained in the practice of critical thinking. Hence, one would imagine that academia would be the last place to find passive conformism. However, does this image reflect reality? Having interviewed four groups of 50 students, 47 academics, and 28 support staff in three Saudi universities, passive conformism (be it unethical, managerial, or in the form of logistical conformism) appears to be a necessity in Saudi academia. This suggests that, although academia acts as an authority in regard to critical thinking, it may not internalize this philosophy or expose its own organizational activities to such thinking. Passive conformism in Saudi academic organizations is enhanced by wider Saudi culture which promotes conformism among its citizens and directs every aspect of public and private lives, including the lives of its academic organizations. A theoretical proposition could be therefore that passive conformism in a society could be transmitted to its organizations.     

Examining the Impact of Turkey's Approach Vis‐à‐Vis Syria into Turkey's Iraq Policy

The tension between “international order” and justice has long been a focus of critical attention of many scholars. Today, with the rise of the humanitarian crises, the debate is once again visible, and Turkish foreign policy is one of the most important areas of observation of this tension. Indeed, the U.S.‐led invasion of Iraq in 2003 paved the way for Turkey to actively engage in regional affairs. Meanwhile, the need to bring human justice into world politics makes Turkish foreign policy decision makers operate on a much more humanitarian basis. Nevertheless, active humanitarian engagement poses an important challenge to traditional Turkish foreign policy as it is mainly based on the notion of “non‐interference,” as well as on the elementary components of international order, by raising suspicions on the intentions of the Turkish authorities. This article aims to explore the challenges Turkey has been facing since the U.S.‐led invasion of Iraq, and diagnose Turkish foreign policy vis‐à‐vis Iraq in the shadow of the Syrian civil war from Hedley Bull's framework of “order” and “justice.” It argues that Turkey's recent fluctuations in the Middle East could be linked to Turkey's failure to reconcile the requirements of “order” with those of “justice” and the Turkish governing party's (AKP) attempts to use justice as an important instrument to consolidate its power both in Turkey and in the Middle East.     

Window opening effects on structural behavior of historical masonry Fatih Mosque

Structural walls of old historical structures are either blind or have openings for functional requirements. It is well known that in and out of plane responses of structural walls are affected by the size, locations, and arrangements of such openings. The purpose of this investigation is to study the window opening effects on static and seismic behaviors of historical masonry old mosques. Fatih Mosque, which was converted from a church, constructed in 914 in Trabzon, Turkey, is selected for this purpose. The mosque is being restored. Structural exterior walls of the mosque were made using stone and mortar materials. When the plaster on the walls was removed during the restoration, 12 window openings were found as blind on the exterior structural walls of the mosque. Within the scope of restoration works, it is aimed to open such blind windows. In order to investigate the effects of the window openings on the structural behavior of the mosque, 3D solid and finite elements models of the mosque with and without window openings are initially developed. The experimental dynamic characteristics such as frequency, damping ratio, and mode shapes of the current situation of the mosque, where some windows openings are blind, are determined using Ambient Vibration Testing. Then, the finite element model of the current situation of the mosque is updated using the experimental dynamic characteristics. The static and seismic time history analyses of the updated finite element model with and without window openings are carried out. Structural behaviors of the mosque with and without window openings are compared considering displacement and stress propagations.