Patronage or Participation? Community‐based Natural Resource Management Reform in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the institutional factors that account for the outcome of efforts to decentralize control over natural resources to local communities. It focuses on the political nature of institutional processes associated with decentralization in sub‐Saharan Africa through a comparative analysis of wildlife management reforms in seven east and southern African countries. Institutional reforms are largely dependent on state authorities' patronage interests, which in turn are shaped by the relative economic value of wildlife, the degree of central control over commercial utilization, and the accountability of governance institutions. Our findings have a range of practical implications for the design of CBNRM initiatives and institutional reform strategies.     

Reviews

DOCUMENTS AND SPEECHES ON COMMONWEALTH AFFAIRS 1952–1962. Nicholas Mansergh (ed.). London, New York, Toronto, Oxford University Press, 1963 for the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Pp. xxi, 775. £stg. 6–0–0.

THE POST‐WAR TRANSFORMATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH: Reflections on the Asian‐African Contribution. M. S. Rajan. London, Asia Publishing House, 1963, for the Indian School of International Studies, Pp. 67. Stg. 18/‐.

COMMUNITY AND CONTENTION: BRITAIN AND AMERICA IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY. Bruce M. Russett. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass. Pp. xii, 252, $7.00.

PEACE KEEPING BY UNITED NATIONS FORCES FROM SUEZ TO THE CONGO. A. L. Burns and Nina Heathcote. Princeton Studies in World Politics, Number 4, 1963, pp. 256.

NEUTRALISM. Peter Lyon. Leicester University Press, 1963. Pp. 216. U.K. price 25/‐.

THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE: A SHORT POLITICAL GUIDE. Alvin J. Cottrell and James E. Dougherty. London, Pall Mall Press, 1964. Pp. 262. U.K. price 30/‐.

THE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OP HUNGARY INTO THE SOVIET BLOC. L. Zsoldos. Bureau of Business Research, Ohio State University, 1963. Pp. 149. Price $5.00.

VOSPOMINANIYA O FEVRALSKOY REVOLYUTSII. MEMOIRS OF THE FEBRUARY (MARCH RUSSIAN) REVOLUTION. I. G. Tsereteli. Mouton & Co., Paris. The Hague. 1963. Two volumes. I, xxx + 494; II, 429 & Index. Published with the cooperation of the Russian Institute of Columbia University and the Russian Research Centre of Harvard University.

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THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INDEPENDENT MALAYA: A CASE STUDY IN DEVELOPMENT. T. H. Silcock and E. K. Fisk (eds.). Australian National University, 1963. Pp. 306 + xi. 42/‐.     

Droughts as random events in the Maya lowlands

Because the values of most of the parameters controlling the occurrence and severity of a drought in a given location are unknown, and no periodicity has been observed, droughts can be considered random events. Running a random number generator within the limits of the annual rainfall variability relevant to the Maya lowlands, and defining a “Lean Year”, it is observed that strings of lean years occur quite frequently. Defining “Severe Drought”, “Disaster”, and “Catastrophe” based on the length of these strings, it is observed that a severe drought occurs on average every 32 years, a disaster occurs on average every 130 years, and a catastrophe on average every 500 years. These values fit the measured variability of the Yucatan climate, as observed in lake core sediments and in the post conquest written records. It also fits the average occurrence of “megadroughts” in the US Great Plains.The fit between the random occurrence model and the actual, “measured” occurrence of droughts supports the notion that for all practical purposes, droughts had been random events in the Maya region and could not be predicted. The lack of evident periodicity could be one of the reasons why means for long-term storage of food products were not developed there. It may also have affected the relationship between the priesthood and the general populace in that region.Since the method described here can be applied to any climatic region once the rainfall variability and the sensitivity of the local agriculture are known or can be estimated, if similar results are found they may probably have affected other regions with other ancient cultures in a similar way.