USING A COMPOSED ERROR MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE FRICTIONAL AND EXCESS-SUPPLY COMPONENTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT

ABSTRACT We present in this paper a plausible and simple method of estimating the two components (frictional and excess supply) of unemployment. This approach uses a stochastic model whose error term is composed of two elements–the usual two-sided error and a one-sided error. Our method has several strengths. First, we are able to explicitly model the universally held view that there is a nonzero lower bound on unemployment. Second, we can easily determine whether each region's unemployment rate is caused primarily by excess supply or frictional forces. We illustrate our technique on a data set comprised of all 50 states over the period 1960-1979. Finally, estimation of the frictional rates of unemployment allows us to analyze, in the last part of the paper, the underlying economic and demographic determinants of differences in frictional unemployment rates across states and over time.     

Securing the Return: How Enhanced US Border Enforcement Fuels Cycles of Debt Migration

Expanded border enforcement has made unauthorised migration to the US more risky, costly, and prone to failure. Research on the material consequences of border enforcement for migrant‐sending households in Central America reveals that the economic hardships enforcement exacts on migrants at times diminishes enforcement's desired deterrent power. Heightened risks have driven up the cost of migration and pushed many to fund their trips through loans. Consequently, migrant detention, deportation, or death can result in poverty and privation for indebted households and the seizure of loan collateral, typically homes and land, in turn prompting crises in household reproduction. With a US wage the most viable means to ameliorate economic hardships, enforcement outcomes push some to return migration. Our findings suggest that US border enforcement efforts at times perpetuate the very unauthorised migration they seek to impede, while also helping to reproduce the border itself by deepening the marginalisation that drives migration decisions.     

Authentic Kyrgyzstan: top down politics meet bottom up heritage

Abstract

Over the past twelve years I have collaborated with Kyrgyz citizens to promote a national conversation about heritage, based on grass roots interest and sentiment. Countering polarising political rhetoric about Kyrgyz nomadism as the only authentic national heritage identity, many citizens enthusiastically present the artefacts of ancient cities alongside the balbals (stele) of ancient nomads in their community museums, eagerly participate in discussions about a complex Kyrgyz past, and have collaborated with Uzbek speakers to create a national heritage society. In this paper I will describe several community museums and other grass roots education programmes that I have been involved with in Kyrgyzstan and consider their potential for countering ethnic conflict.     

Hasard vécu et nécessité subie dans leAnton Reiser de Karl Philipp Moritz

The distinction between literary chance and chance as experience (E. Köhler) allows the originality of Moritz’s autobiographical novel to be disengaged. This study of the motif of chance in book II ofAnton Reiser shows the establishment of a narrative method characterized by repressing the literary treatment of chance and maintaining of chance as a category of lived experience. In this text, the fortunate and unfortunate chances do not found the literary necessity of an exemplary destiny, but are the occasion for throwing light on the double determination, exterior and interior, that affects the character’s existence, an existence that is experienced under the sign of a radical contingency. It is in this first obscurity that psychological analysis operates, not to establish the horizon of Providence, but to disengage the general lessons of an existence, and to give to its hero, at this moment, the consistency of a novelistic character.     

Current issues in Chinese Neolithic archaeology

Every year archaeologists in China discover numerous rich sites demonstrating significant regional variability in Neolithic cultures, primarily from about 6500 B.C. to 1900 B.C. This paper discusses a topic not covered in detail in current or forthcoming publications, the origins and development of agricultural systems. Recent fieldwork in both northern and southern China suggests that initial steps toward settled agricultural villages began circa 11,000 B.P. I review evidence for the cultivation of millet, rice, and other plants as well as animal husbandry in different regions of China. There are several later Neolithic sites in northern China with evidence for rice cultivation. I suggest how future research projects can investigate regional variation and change over time in subsistence and settlement during the Neolithic Period.