Book reviews

Mohammed Ayoob, The Middle East in World Politics. Croom Helm Ltd., London, 1981, pp. 217. $10.95

Charlotte S.M. Girard, Canada in World Affairs, Volume XIII, 1963–1965. Canadian Institute of International Affairs, Toronto, 1980, pp. 372. $Can27.00 (cloth), $Can10.00 (paper).

Morton A. Kaplan, Towards Professionalism in International Theory: Macrosystem Analysis. The Free Press, New York, 1979, pp ix + 182. $US17.95.

Holly Sklar (ed.), Trilateralism The Trilateral Commission and Elite Planning for World Management. Black Rose Books, Montreal, 1980, pp. 604. No price given.

Michael Mandelbaum, The Nuclear Question: The United States and Nuclear Weapons 1946–1976. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1979, pp. 276. £ 12.50.

Graham Kearns, Arms for the Poor. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Canberra, 1980, pp. 131. $7.00.

John G. Keliher, The Negotiations on Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions: The Search for Arms Control in.Central Europe. Pergamon Press, New York, 1980, pp. 204. No price given.

Michael Sexton, War for the Asking: Australia's Vietnam Secrets. Penguin Books Australia, Ringwood, 1981, pp.212. $5.95.

Ian McGibbon, Blue‐Water Rationale: The Naval Defence of New Zealand 1914–1942. Government Printing Office, Wellington, 1981, pp xxi + 446. $NZ45.00.

Erhard Fordran and Paul J. Friedrich (eds.), Rüstungskontrolle und Sicherheit in Europa. Europa Union Verlag GMBH, Bonn, 1979, pp. 374. No price given.

Alan Rix, Japan's Economic Aid. Croom Helm, London, 1980, pp. 286. £14.95.

K.H. Digby, Lawyer in the. Wilderness, Data Paper No. 114, Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., 1980, pp. xi + 102. $US5.75.

R.B. Smith and W. Watson (eds.), Early South East Asia: Essays in Archaeology, History and Historical Geography. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1979, pp. xv + 561. $56.00.

Allan Bollard, Agricultural Project Design and Evaluation in an Island Community, Australian National University Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 15, 1979, pp. xiii + 228. $8.00.

Philip J. Eldridge, Indonesia and Australia: The Politics of Aid and Development since 1966. Australian National University, Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 18, 1979, pp. xviii + 233. $8.00.

Paul Harrison, The Third World Tomorrow: a report from the battlefront in the war against poverty. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1980, pp. 380. $7.95.

R. T. Shand and H. V. Richter (eds.), International Aid: Some Political, Administrative and Technical Realities. Development Studies Centre Monograph No. 16, The Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1979, pp. 278. $9.00.

Seweryn Bialer, Stalin's Successors. Leadership, Stability and Change in the Soviet Union. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1980, pp. 312. £12.50.     

Agricultural variation and human fertility in antebellum Pennsylvania

Focus in this discussion is on research designed to examine human fertility variation in 59 Pennsylvania counties in 1850 and 1860. The research goes beyond previous historical studies in examining the relationship between land quality and fertility and in separating the possible impacts of settlement from the availability of land for agricultural purposes. The measure of human fertility used in the analysis was the child-woman ratio, defined as the number of children aged 0-4/1000 white women aged 15-49. In 1850 the child-woman ratio ranged from 488-889. The child-woman ratio fell slightly between 1850 and 1860, and county level variation was reduced. Yet, Pennsylvania counties varied substantially in fertility levels during this period. The range between the highest and lowest fertility countries was over 400 children in 1850 and almost 350 in 1860. The set of agricultural variables displayed expected differences at the 2 time periods. The excess demand for farmsites increased between 1850 and 1860, while the variation in demand decreased by over one-half, reflecting additional settlement within all acres of the state. The settlement ratio increased over the decade; the sex ratio declined, most likely in response to outmigration westward. The agricultural variables were all negatively related to the child-woman ratio and were statistically significant, except for the labor/acre variable. The strongest correlation in 1850 was between the excess demand for farmsites and fertility. This coefficient indicated that the greater the excess demand for farmsites, the lower the child-woman ratio. This relationship was attentuated somewhat for 1860, yet it continued to be negative and statistically significant. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were all related to fertility in the expected direction, but only 5 of the 7 correlations were statistically significant in 1850 and 6 in 1860. The settlement ratio, sex ratio, percent urban, distance to urban place, and the measure of female age composition were all significantly related to fertility in 1850 and 1860. The study results support the growing body of research which has identified agricultural opportunity as a significant factor in fertility in rural areas of 19th century America. The findings also suggest that the importance of agricultural opportunity extended beyond the frontier period.     

On the Implications of a Stationary Urban Population For the Size Distribution of Cities

The paper analyzes the limiting case for a modified Yule-Simon model of city growth. The aim of the paper is primarily to reintroduce geographers to the notion of a closed system of cities, i.e., a system of cities where the aggregate population is stationary in size. The Yule-Simon model, while successful in dealing with the observed properties of open systems, is seen to break down for closed systems. Moreover, incorporating Simon's assumptions regarding intercity migration into the model produces implausible results. Also, the traditional approach of employing entropy-maximizing procedures assumes a certain pattern of intercity migration. This pattern, while not inherently implausible, does present features which are questionable. The authors conclude that an adequate theory for closed systems has yet to be developed.