The arithmetic of defence policy

The Kosovo campaign of 1999 demonstrated unambiguously the weakness of European military forces. Recognition of the consequences of this lack of capability has put new vigour into the European defence debate. Yet decline in military capability is systemic in every European country. The Helsinki goals will do nothing to address this decline. National defence budgets over the past 15 years have been decreasing in real terms. Even if current aspirations to hold military spending levels were to be achieved, the decline in capabilities would continue. Military equipment and personnel costs rise faster than domestic inflation, and therefore fewer people and weapons systems can be afforded each year. There is no prospect of significant uplifts in defence budgets in Europe, despite the acknowledged need for a range of expensive enabling capabilities for post-Cold War operations. Palliative measures now on trial are unlikely to have a major impact. The only option for European nations is a progressive integration of their forces to realize the economies of scale that would allow effectiveness to be maintained. There are opportunities for initiatives that would produce short-term pay-offs. Despite the severe political difficulties of a long-term plan for integration, the alternative is worse. Trying to maintain sovereignty in defence provision will mean that the nations of Europe will eventually be unable either to meet the requirements of even their most modest security needs or to exercise any influence over US defence and security policies.     

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of young fluvial deposits of the Middle Elbe River Flood Plains using different age models

In the last few decades optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating has become an important tool in geochronological studies. The great advantage of the method, i.e. dating the depositional age of sediments directly, can be impaired by incomplete bleaching of grains. This can result in a scattered distribution of equivalent doses (D_E), leading to incorrect estimation of the depositional age. Thoroughly tested protocols as well as good data analysis with adequate statistical methods are important to overcome this problem. In this study, samples from young fluvial sand and flood plain deposits from the Elbe River in northern Germany were investigated to compare its depositional ages from different age models with well-known historical dates. Coarse grain quartz (100–200 μm and 150–250 μm) and polymineral fine grains (4–11 μm) were dated using the single aliquot regenerative (SAR) dose protocol. The paleodose (D_P) was calculated from the DE data set using different approaches. Results were compared with the development of the Elbe River, which is well-documented by historical records and maps covering the last 1,000 years. Depending on the statistical approach it can be demonstrated that depositional ages significantly differ from the most likely depositional age. For the investigated coarse grain quartz samples all ages calculated from the MAM-3_UL, including their uncertainties, are within the historical documented age. Results of the polymineral fine grain samples are overestimating the historically documented depositional age, indicating undetectable incomplete bleaching. This study shows the importance of using an adequate statistical approach to calculate reliable OSL ages from fluvial sediments.     

Frozen Film and FOSDIC Forms: Restoring the 1960 U.S. Census of Population and Housing

In this article, the authors describe a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center (MPC), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Archives and Records Administration to restore the lost data from the 1960 Census. The data survived on refrigerated microfilm in a cave in Lenexa, Kansas. The MPC is now converting the data to usable form. Once the restored data are processed, the authors intend to develop three new data sources based on the 1960 census. These data will replace the most inadequate sample in the series of public-use census microdata spanning the years from 1850 to 2000, extend the chronological scope of the public census summary files, and provide a powerful new resource for the Census Bureau and its Research Data Centers.