Policy Bubbles

We develop the concept of a policy bubble to capture the notion of long‐term overinvestment in a policy. In sketching the relation of policy bubbles to economic bubbles, we describe how these two concepts have similar origins but different trajectories because they are filtered by different institutions. We examine in some detail three likely instances of ongoing policy bubbles: crime policy, school reform (charter schools and private education vouchers), and the contracting and privatization of public services. We show how these cases differ from the housing bubble of 1997–2007, how they differ from each other, and the extent to which they can be considered policy bubbles. Last, we suggest this concept can help unify the policy process literature with the practice of policy evaluation and outline testable hypotheses for future research.     

TOCQUEVILLE AND THE FRENCH REVOLUTION

Tocqueville Unveiled : The Historian and His Sources for The Old Regime and the Revolution . By Robert T. Gannett Jr.     

Archaeometry and materiality: materials‐based analysis in theory and practice*

Due to the diversity of contemporary archaeology, the aims and approaches of archaeological scientists and archaeological theorists are often at odds. I suggest that this position is problematic, both intellectually and methodologically, as both groups are fundamentally engaged in the same task: an understanding of past societies through the medium of material culture. This paper offers a review of the intellectual positions of both groups, with a brief discussion of the history of archaeological theory and an appraisal of its current trajectory. I will discuss how and why contemporary theoretical perspectives have fundamentally diverged from the perspectives of archaeological scientists and how the recent theoretical emphasis upon materiality offers a rapprochement between theoreticians and archaeological scientists.     

Optimal Sampling Design for Variables with Varying Spatial Importance

It is often desirable to sample in those locations where uncertainty associated with a variable is highest. However, the importance of knowing the variable's value may vary across space. We are interested in the spatial distribution of Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI), a measure of the signal strength from a cell tower received at a particular location. It is crucial to estimate RSSI values accurately in order to evaluate the effectiveness of mayday systems designed for rapid emergency notification following vehicle crashes. RSSI estimation is less important for locations where the probability of a crash is low and where the likelihood of call completion is either close to zero or one. We develop a method for augmenting an initial spatial sample of RSSI values to achieve a high‐precision estimate of the probability of call completion following a crash. We illustrate the approach using data on RSSI and vehicle crashes in Erie County, NY.     

An Independent Palestine: The Security Dimension

If negotiations produce an end to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict then a sovereign, independent Palestine may emerge. But what is required for it to succeed? Nothing is more important than the security of a Palestinian state–for itself, for Israel, and for the region: security trumps all else. In addition to the problem of dealing effectively with opposition to a peace agreement within Palestine or directed against it from outside, the nature and magnitude of the security challenge will depend in large part on three issues: the drawing of borders between Israel and Palestine–and whether they are porous or marked by a rigid line of barriers; whether Israeli settlements are withdrawn, or in part incorporated into Israel, perhaps through land swaps with Palestine; and what arrangements are made for Jerusalem. One answer is the creation of effective Palestinian military forces (in addition to police), but this course could be divisive; a second is the development of a series of Israeli–Palestinian confidence‐building and share–security measures, including intelligence cooperation; a third is progress towards reducing external threats to Israel–Palestine, including success in Iraq and in defusing other Middle East problems. Most useful, however, would be the creation of an American‐led peace enabling force, ideally modelled on NATO. This force would need to be agreed by both Israel and Palestine; it must be adequately staffed, trained and equipped; its duties and rules of engagement must make sense to all parties; and it must be part of a network of dispute‐resolution and confidence‐building measures in full partnership with Israeli and Palestinian authorities.     

Courts of World Opinion:

In January 1964, riots broke out along the so-called border between Panamanian cities and the U.S.-run Canal Zone, resulting in loss of life among Panamanians and U.S. citizens and serious economic and political damage on both sides. While historians have mainly focused on the causes of the riots and the U.S.-Panama diplomacy that followed, a close look at the lesser-known international investigations of the violence adds texture and detail to the riots themselves as it also uncovers broader cultural and political dynamics surrounding the episode. This essay, informed partly by interviews with Panamanian participants and by documents from the Panamanian government, argues that Panamanians expressed a potent anticolonial discourse during the investigations, one that allowed them to conceal their government's substantial irresponsibility during the riots and help convince the U.S. government to negotiate the devolution of the canal into Panamanian hands.     

Top-down or bottom-up: rural settlement and raised field agriculture in the Lake Titicaca Basin, Bolivia

Differing interpretations regarding the organization of past intensive farming are often distinguished as “top-down” or “bottom-up” perspectives. The development of intensive farming and its social organization are attributed to either nascent states and centralized governments or the incremental work of local communities or kin-based groups. We address the social organization of raised field farming in one region of the Lake Titicaca Basin of the Andean altiplano, Bolivia. We evaluate past research in the Katari Valley, including our own, based on recent settlement survey, excavation, and a variety of analyses. Taking a long-term perspective covering 2500 years, we find that relations of production and rural organization changed greatly over time in relation to changing sociopolitical conditions. Local communities played dynamic roles in the development and organization of raised field farming, yet its intensification and ultimate recession were keyed to the consolidation and decline of the Tiwanaku state. We conclude that the top-down/bottom-up dichotomy is overdrawn. Local communities and their productive practices never operated in a political or economic vacuum but both shaped and were transfigured by regional processes of state formation, consolidation, and fragmentation.     

Multiregional Perspectives on the Archaeology of the Andes During the Late Intermediate Period (c. A.D. 1000–1400)

During the Late Intermediate period (LIP, c. A.D. 1000–1400), the central Andes experienced the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku states, as well as processes of state formation, regional population growth, and competition culminating in the imperial expansion of the Chimú and Inka polities. The LIP holds the potential to link the archaeological features of early Andean states with the material signatures of the later ones, providing a critical means of contextualizing the intergenerational continuities and breaks in state structures and imperial strategies. The recent proliferation of LIP research and the completion of a number of regional studies permit the overview of six LIP regions and the comparison of highland and lowland patterns of political and economic organization, social complexity, and group identity.