Modified Moran's I for Small Samples

The most common indicator used to measure spatial dependence is Moran's I proposed by statistician Patrick A. P. Moran in 1950. The index is simple to use and applies the principle of the Pearson correlation coefficient, although it incorporates a proximity measure between elements. However, Moran's I tends to underestimate real spatial autocorrelation when the number of locations are few. This study aims to present a modified version of Moran's I that can measure real spatial autocorrelation even with small samples and check for spatial dependence.     

The role of ‘diplomatic lobbying’ in shaping US foreign policy and its effects on the Australia–US relationship

Lobbying as a form of engagement with the US Congress has long been studied from a domestic perspective. Lobbying, however, is not a practice confined to actors with domestic interests—it is also used as a form of diplomacy by many foreign governments, including Australia. Diplomatic lobbying is a vastly understudied phenomenon and its impact on US foreign relations is rarely examined. Unlike most Westminster-based democracies, the USA has two branches directly involved with foreign affairs—the Executive and Congress—each of which is important for different aspects of foreign policy development. Australia has found lobbying the US Congress to be a powerful tool for diplomatic engagement. This article looks at the role of the US Congress in foreign affairs, the effects of lobbying, and the ways in which diplomats engage with and lobby Congress. Australia’s specific lobbying efforts and their effects on the US–Australia relationship are then examined.     

About Times: Some Reflections and Resonances Prompted by Reading a Draft Paper by David Zeitlyn

Responding to David Zeitlyn's introduction, the paper considers implications of different conceptions or gamuts of time. Flows and connections between pasts and futures are considered in the light of Huw Price's work on the philosophy of time and by thinking seriously about how science fiction writers have considered the paradoxes of time travel.     

The strategic logic of Islamic State information operations

Drawing on English and Arabic Islamic State (IS) communiqués produced by its central media units, wilayat information offices and broader supporter base, this study examines the strategic logic of IS information operations (IO). It argues that the overarching purpose of IS's IO campaign is to shape the perceptions and polarise the support of audiences via messages that interweave appeals to pragmatic and perceptual factors. Pragmatic factors—such as security, stability and livelihood—are leveraged in IS messaging by promoting the efficacy of its politico-military campaign and denigrating its enemies’ efforts via rational-choice (logic of consequence) appeals. Perceptual factors—which are tied to the interplay of in-group, Other, crisis and solution constructs—are leveraged via identity-choice (logic of appropriateness) appeals that frame IS as the champion of Sunni Muslims (the in-group identity), its enemies as Others complicit in Sunni perceptions of crisis, and IS as the only hope for solving this malaise. With this approach, IS seeks to resonate its message across a diverse ‘glocal’ constituency and supercharge supporters towards action. IS simultaneously targets its enemies with messaging that manipulates the inherent dualities underlying perceptual and pragmatic factors, vigorously counters criticisms and ‘baits’ opponents into ill-conceived IO responses.