Frustrated Great Gamesmanship: Sir Garnet Wolseley's Plans for War against Russia, 1873–1880

Abstract

In three books published in 1940, 1956, and 1961, Arthur J. Marder established what became the orthodox view of the development of the British navy in the years leading up to the First World War.1 A.J. Marder, The Anatomy of British Sea Power: A History of British Naval Policy in the Pre-Dreadnought Era, 1880–1965 (New York, 1940); idem,[Fear God and DreadNought: The] C[orrespondence of Admiral of the Fleet Lord] F[isher of Kilverstone: II: Years of Power, 1904–14] (London, 1956); idem, From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow: I: The Road to War, 1904–14 (Oxford, 1961). Building upon the work of Sir Llewellyn Woodward, who argues that, from the outset of the twentieth century, British naval policy was framed as a response to the threat posed by the rising German naval power,2 E. L. Woodward, Great Britain and the German Navy (London, 1934). Marder makes precise claims about the nature of the response. In particular, he states that, under the leadership of the first sea lord from 1904 to 1910, Admiral Sir John Fisher, the admiralty undertook two root-and-branch reforms. First, it redeployed Britain's fleets and squadrons, reducing the number of foreign stations, scrapping obsolescent vessels, and stationing the most powerful units of the fleet in European waters. Next, at Fisher's prompting, it triggered a naval revolution by ordering the building of a new type of warship, HMS Dreadnought, the world's first turbine-powered, all-big-gun battleship. In both cases, Marder is unambiguous about the motive: the redeployment adjusted Britain's force posture to ensure a preponderance of strength in the vicinity of the North Sea, the theatre in which the expected war with Germany would be fought. The new type of ship was necessary to help to modernize the navy's matériel in keeping with advances in gunnery, propulsion, and torpedoes. If not explicitly aimed at Germany, the new ship would ensure that the navy was better prepared for a war that Fisher perceived to be ‘inevitable’s.     

Small carnivores from a Late Neolithic burial chamber at Çatalhöyük,Turkey: pelts,rituals, and rodents

Results derived from the analysis of small carnivores from a burial chamber at the Late Neolithic Çatalhöyük (TP Area) shed light on the socioeconomic significance of stone martens (Martes foina), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), and common weasels (Mustela nivalis). All of these are fur-bearing animals, though only the stone marten remains to show evidence that this animal was exploited for its pelt. The evidence consists of the observed skeletal bias (only the head parts and foot bones were present) and skinning marks. Two of five sets of articulated feet are most likely linked with an almost completely preserved human infant skeleton, one of two well-preserved skeletons that were interred on the burial chamber floor. In contrast to these, other human skeletons were found mostly incompletely preserved, though with evidence of articulation. It seems that the articulated forepaws were deliberately incorporated into the structure, most likely as a part of burial practice and ritual behavior. These distinctive deposits, along with rich grave goods, emphasize the uniqueness in the entire Anatolian Neolithic of the assemblage from the burial chamber, which is decorated by a panel incised with spiral motifs.     

Book reviews

“THE SOUTH SEAS IN TRANSITION” by W. E. H. Stanner. Issued under the auspices of the Australian Institute of International Affairs and the International Secretariat, Institute of Pacific Affairs and published by the Australasian Publishing Company. 1953. Pp. viii and 448. Three maps. Australian Published price, 50/‐ net.

SOCIAL ANTHROPOLOGY EN MELANESIA: A REVIEW OF RESEARCH, by A. P. Elkin. Published under the auspices of the South Pacific Commission. Oxford University Press, London, Melbourne, New York, 1953. Pp. xiii, 166 Maps. Price 27/6.

“THE AUSTRALIAN WAY OF LIFE.” Edited by George Caiger, under the auspices of the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Pp. xvi and 158. Published by William Heinemann Ltd., 1953. Australian price, 15/6.     

Book reviews

Australian. J. S. Western and Colin A. Hughes, The Mass Media in Australia. Use and Evaluation, University of Queensland Press, Brisbane, 1971, pp. 178, $6.50.

R. G. Casey, Australian Foreign Minister: Diaries 1951–60, ed. T. B. Millar, Collins, Sydney, 1972, pp. 352, $7.95.

Ian Bellany, Australia in the Nuclear Age: National Defence and National Development, Sydney University Press, 1972, pp. 144, $6.00.

J. A. La Nauze, The Making of the Australian Constitution, Melbourne University Press 1972, pp. 369 + xi, $15.00.

Scott Bennett, The Making of the Commonwealth, Cassell Australia, Melbourne, 1971, pp. xi + 244, no price.

Commonwealth Parliamentary Library, Parliamentary Handbook of the Commonwealth of Australia, 17th ed., 1971, Australian Government Publishing Service Canberra 1972, pp xiii + 954, $11.50.

Naomi Turner, Sinews of Sectarian Warfare? State Aid in New South Wales 1836–1862, Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1972, pp. 272, $8.50.

Niall Brennan, John Wren Gambler, Hill of Content, Melbourne, 1971, pp. xii + 259, $6.95.

Irwin Young, Theodore His Life and Times, Alpha, Sydney, 1971, pp. 189, $4.50.

Don Whitington, Twelfth Man?, Jacaranda Press, Brisbane, 1972, pp. 180, $4.95.

J. E. Menadue, A Centenary History of the Australian Natives’ Association, 1871–1971, Horticultural Press, Melbourne, n.d., 1972, pp. x + 425, no price.

I. McKay, R. Boyd, H. Stretton and J. Mant, Living and Partly Living, Thomas Nelson, Melbourne, 1972, pp. 195, $10.95.

Robin Boyd, The Great Great Australian Dream, Pergamon Press, Sydney, 1972, pp. 395 + xviii, $5.95.

Style Manual for Authors, Editors and Printers of Australian Government Publications, 2nd ed., Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1972, pp. 417 + xiv, $9.95.

Other. Marian W. Ward (ed.), Change and Development in Rural Melanesia: Papers Delivered at the Fifth Waigani Seminar, The University of Papua and New Guinea, Port Moresby, and the Research School of Pacific Studies, The Australian National University, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, 1972, pp. ix + 556, $6.00.

L. Cleveland and A. D. Robinson (eds.), Readings in New Zealand Government, Reed, Wellington, 1972, pp. 314, $NZ5.30.

Richard Crossman, Inside View, Jonathan Cape, London, 1972, pp. 117, $6.50.

Humphrey Berkeley, Crossing the Floor, George Allen & Unwin, London, 1972, pp. 170, $9.30.

Eleanor Kapp, Eleanor Marx, Volume I Family Life 1855–1883, Lawrence and Wishart, London, 1972, pp. 319, £4.50 (English price).

U. Bronfenbrenner, Two Worlds of Childhood: U.S. and U.S.S.R., George Allen and Unwin, London, 1971, pp. xii + 190 (plus 4 blank pages), $10.60.

R. J. Mokken, A Theory and Procedure of Scale Analysis, with Applications in Political Research, Mouton, The Hague, 1971, pp xiii + 353, 45 guilders.     

What Can Causal Process Tracing Offer to Policy Studies? A Review of the Literature

Causal process tracing (CPT) has emerged as an important method of causal inference in qualitative social science research, most notably in case study research designs. There is now a considerable literature on the aims, philosophical groundings, and methods of process tracing. This paper reviews the CPT literature to assess what new directions it may suggest for policy studies. The first part of the paper sets out the methodological advantages CPT offers in building and testing theories of policy change, most notably in supporting a theoretical pluralism to address the problem of complexity in policy studies. Building on recent scholarship across the social sciences, the second part examines step by step the recently minted “best practice” for undertaking CPT in policy studies. This part includes discussion of the possible pitfalls of CPT as a method; common errors involved in its use are set out and minimization strategies offered. In particular, while acknowledging the usefulness of Bayesian tests for causality as heuristic devices, we emphasize the limitations of applying such tests in practice. Possible correctives are suggested. The final part of the paper speculates more generally on the potential of CPT to improve our investigation of patterns of policy change over time.