Economic resilience of metropolitan,old industrial,and rural regions in two subsequent recessionary shocks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on the question of how particular types of regions react to economic shocks. Drawing on a case study of Czech microregions, we aim to determine if the old industrial regions differ significantly from other types of regions (metropolitan, urban, rural) in (post)crisis economic development. Two aspects of regional resilience (measured by unemployment growth) were considered: recession and recovery. We focused on the comparison of two subsequent recessionary shocks: the 2008–2010 global recession and the 2012–2013 austerity crisis. Metropolitan regions showed relatively stable economic development. Old industrial regions were more resilient than expected. Rural regions exhibited highly diverse reactions: lower resistance was characteristic for regions specialized (mostly) in automotive and some labour-intensive industries. The first wave of recession increased unemployment mostly in (rural) regions dependent on export-oriented manufacturing, the second wave especially hit larger cities with metropolitan functions. Regions that experienced a sharp unemployment increase in the first recession were generally more resistant in the second wave. All types of regions were internally highly diverse in their reactions to economic crises, which points to the importance of micro-regional variations of economic resilience, the performance of individual local firms and subsidiaries, and extra-regional factors of regional development.     

Early Specialized Production? A Chalcolithic Stone Bracelet Workshop at Kanlitaş, Turkey

An assemblage of marble bracelets, at various stages of manufacture, recovered during surface survey of the site of Kanl?ta? in Turkey, indicates that there was specialized production activity at the site during the Chalcolithic period. In this article we present the assemblage, evidence about material procurement, technology and manufacturing processes. We discuss the significance of the assemblage in relation to other sites in the area and as an example of production intended for inter‐site trade or exchange. We also address the wider issues of both the production of stone bracelets as a widespread practice in Anatolia from the Neolithic onwards, and the phenomenon of early specialized production.     

Within sacred boundaries: the limitations of saintly justice in the province of Narbonne around the year 1000

ABSTRACT

Around the year 1000, judges from the ecclesiastical province of Narbonne (southern France and Catalonia) crafted judicial strategies that reinforced the region's Visigothic Code with the power of saints – conceived as gatekeepers to God's heavenly courtroom – to validate the oaths of witnesses. This practice merged liturgically grounded ideas about supernatural forces and space with a law code that prioritised secular authority. To forestall opposition to rulings, officials sometimes held proceedings in churches. This paper examines two unusual cases illustrating the challenges such strategies faced, given the perception that saints were not omnipresent. These disputes raise questions about the nature of saints, the degree of agency humans attributed to them and the utility of sacred spaces for legal ritual. In the province, saints were powerful, but constrained by their inability to act beyond the walls of consecrated sanctuaries housing their relics. This relegated saints to supplementary roles in law.     

The national security implications of solar geoengineering: an Australian perspective

ABSTRACT

Given current emissions trends an increase in global temperatures in excess of 2°C is highly likely in the coming century. In this context, it seems increasingly probable that states may consider solar geoengineering as a stop-gap climate response. Solar geoengineering refers to measures that aim to alleviate some measure of global warming by intentionally increasing the amount of the sun’s energy that is reflected into space. Currently the two most discussed solar geoengineering techniques involve either marine cloud brightening or dispersing aerosols in the stratosphere. These techniques could be relatively inexpensive, are within the technological capacities (after a brief period of development) of technologically-advanced countries, and could have an almost immediate impact on temperatures. Yet, while solar geoengineering might potentially be utilised to manage some climate-linked security threats, it itself would create new security challenges. Consequently, this paper explores potential international security implications for Australia if a regional state, or group of states, initiates a solar geoengineering program. We conclude that since solar geoengineering is unlikely to become a first-order international issue, disputation over solar geoengineering will likely reflect, or act as a proxy for, wider patterns of state interaction. However, scenarios in which China and the United States take different positions, or in which there are divisions among regional powers, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Singapore would pose the greatest threat to Australia’s national security.     

Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

A range of data is of geographic interest but is not available at a small area level from existing data sources. Small area estimation (SAE) offers techniques to estimate population parameters of target variables to detailed scales based on relationships between those target variables and relevant auxiliary variables. The resulting indirect small area estimate can deliver a lower mean squared error compared to its direct survey estimate, given that variance can be reduced markedly even if bias increases. Spatial microsimulation SAE approaches are widely utilized but only beginning to engage with the potential of composite estimators that use a weighted combination of indirect and direct estimators to reduce further the mean squared error of the small area estimate compared to an indirect SAE estimator alone. This article advances these approaches by constructing for the first time in the microsimulation literature an optimal composite estimator for such SAE approaches in which the combining weight is calculated from the mean squared errors of the two estimators; thus, optimizing the reduction in MSE of the resulting small area estimates. This optimal composite estimator is demonstrated and evaluated in a model-based simulation study and application based on the real data.