Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions*

Abstract. Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only “business‐as‐usual” conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.     

Assessing the applicability of portable X-ray fluorescence spectrometry for obsidian provenance research in the Maya lowlands

Recent innovations in portable energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) spectrometry have increased its utility for the geochemical characterization of obsidian artifacts for archaeological provenance research. However, concerns over the utility of PXRF instrumental analyses have been raised, focused on the validity and reliability of the geochemical data produced. Here we adopt the framework of Richard Hughes (On Reliability, Validity, and Scale in Obsidian Sourcing Research, 1998), whereby reliability addresses instrument stability and issues of measurement while validity pertains to an instrument’s ability to discern geochemical source provenance. This is done in order to test the utility of PXRF instruments for archaeological provenance research. k-Means cluster analysis was used to test the accuracy of PXRF through statistical comparison of data acquired via laboratory and portable energy-dispersive XRF instruments. Multivariate analysis was employed to demonstrate obsidian source representation at two Classic Maya archaeological sites in southern Belize – Uxbenká and Ek Xux – and to test the validity of data obtained from a PXRF instrument in answering archaeological research questions pertaining to regional interactions between lowland Maya polities. Results suggest that portable XRF instruments produce internally consistent results. However, data acquired from a PXRF instrument are not statistically equivalent to other XRF instruments. This is to say that while PXRF is not a reliable technique, it is valid for questions pertaining to geochemical source representation.     

Post‐Conflict Ambon: Forced Migration and the Ethno‐Territorial Effects of Customary Tenure

In post‐conflict contexts characterized by large‐scale migration and increasing levels of legal pluralism, customary land tenure risks being deployed as a tool of ethno‐territorialization in which displaced communities are denied return and secure land rights. This thesis will be illustrated through a case study of the Indonesian island of Ambon where a recognition of customary tenure — also called adat — was initiated in 2005 at the end of a high‐intensity conflict between Christians and Muslims. Although a system of land tenure providing multiple forms of social security for the indigenous in‐group, adat in Ambon also constitutes an arena of power in which populations considered as non‐indigenous to a fixed historical territory are pushed into an inferior legal position. The legal registration of customary tenure therefore tends to be deployed to settle long‐standing land contests with a growing migrant community, hereby legally enforcing some of the forced expulsions that were brought about by the recent communal violence.     

Radicalizing Relationships To and Through Shared Geographies: Why Anarchists Need to Understand Indigenous Connections to Land and Place

Abstract: Indigenous activists and anarchist Settler people are articulating common ground in opposition to imperialism and colonialism. However, many anarchists have faced difficulties in Indigenous solidarity work through unintentional (often unwitting) transgressions and appropriations. Through the introduction of settler colonialism as a complicating power dynamic, we observe that anarchists bring unconscious spatial perceptions into their solidarity work. Further, Indigenous activists often perceive anarchists as Settler people first and foremost, which carries another set of spatial implications. We examine a number of examples of anarchist and Indigenous activism, at times empowering and at times conflictual, in order to reveal some general trends. Through an intensive synthesis of Indigenous peoples’ theories and articulations of place‐based relationships, we suggest that deeper understandings of these relationships can be of great importance in approaching solidarity work in place and with respect.     

Evaluating civil development in counterinsurgency operations: the case for a field experiment in Afghanistan

It is a widely held belief that civil development programs play a central role in any counterinsurgency campaign. It is assumed that civil development assistance is key to ‘winning the hearts and minds’ of the civilian population, which, in turn, is crucial for victory. However, there is currently little evidence to support this belief. This article begins by analysing the different methods that have been used in Afghanistan in order to evaluate the effectiveness of civil development programs since 2001. It finds that these methods have severe limitations. Indeed, based solely upon current methods of evaluation, we have no reliable evidence whether civil development programs are actively improving security, having no impact or making matters worse. As such, this article makes the case for a field experiment approach to be adopted in Afghanistan. It argues that field experiments are the most powerful methodology currently available to social scientists for making causal inferences and, by making minor changes to the way in which civil development is distributed, we can vastly improve our understanding of the relationship between aid and security.     

Survey,Shovel Probes,and Population Estimates: Studying Regional Demography in the Intermediate Area Using Subsurface Sherd Deposits

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory - Shovel probes are a common form of archaeological data collection in densely vegetated landscapes. They were once the subject of critical analyses that...     

The oldest root-eating beetle from the Middle Jurassic of China (Coleoptera,Monotomidae)

Cai, C.-Y., ?lipiński, A. & Huang, D.-Y., 31.3.2015. The oldest root-eating beetle from the Middle Jurassic of China (Coleoptera, Monotomidae). Alcheringa 39,488–493. ISSN 0311-5518.

Jurorhizophagus alienus gen. et sp. nov., a new fossil root-eating beetle, is described and figured based on an exceptionally well-preserved impression fossil from the Middle Jurassic Daohugou beds (ca 165 Ma), Inner Mongolia, northeastern China. It represents the earliest fossil Monotomidae known to date. Jurorhizophagus can not be assigned to either of two subfamilies Monotominae or Rhizophaginae based on the unique combination of many unusual characters, including an 11-segmented antenna with a 3-segmented club, the presence of a distinct frontoclypeal suture and transverse pronotum with a median longitudinal groove. The discovery of a new genus from the Middle Jurassic highlights the antiquity of Monotomidae and provides new information about the phylogenetic relationships between Monotomidae and its allied families.

Chen-Yang Cai [caichenyang1988@163.com], Di-Ying Huang [dyhuang@nigpas.ac.cn] (corresponding author), State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy, Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, PR China; Adam ?lipiński [adam.slipinski@csiro.au], Australian National Insect Collection, CSIRO National Collections Australia, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia.