LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCOINTEGRATED AND COINTEGRATED REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Johansen's (1988) multivariate test for cointegration is first applied to four models involving quarterly state data and five variables, along with a national model based on Friedman and Kuttner's (1992) model of money demand, which uses three variables. Each regional model consists of frequently used national and state series, for which theory suggests the possible cointegration of several series pairs. Beginning with all five series, however, one state model is found to be cointegrated over each of 20 successive estimation intervals. The money demand model and one state model are not cointegrated over the same intervals. In the cointegrated case, five-year experimental forecasts show that error correction mechanism (ECM) and Bayesian ECM models outperform all other approaches. More importantly, forecasting performance improves further by respecifying the ECM model based on three cointegrated series pairs rather than the five-component cointegrating vector. For the two noncointegrated systems, the first-difference model suggested by the cointegration/ error correction literature is far superior to VAR in levels over both shortand long-term horizons.     

THE ONTARIO COUNTRY ROAD AS A CULTURAL RESOURCE

This paper demonstrates that the morphology of ordinary rural roads tells much about regional development. It uses southern Ontario as a case study, but the principles may be applied widely. It is a plea for recognition of a deep heritage in unspectacular things: ditches, fence-lines, culverts, jogs in the survey, and more. This paper also encourages local and regional planners to conserve signs of change in the roadscape and to celebrate them. Roadside evolution is worth publicizing, and unnecessary destruction of elements that enhance the story must be discouraged.
Cet essai démontre que la morphologie des routes rurales ordinaires en dit beaucoup au sujet du développement regional. On peut employer cet exemple de /'Ontario du sud mais les principes peuvent s'appliquer d'une manière plus large. Dans ce manuscrit on doit reconnaître /'heritage profond des elements communs: des caniveaux, des clotures, des aqueducs, des irrégularity de I'arpentage, etc. Cet essai encourage aussi les planificateurs i conserver ces signes du paysage routier et à les mettre en Évidence. On doit les faire connaître au public, et décourager leur déstruction.     

Formalizing the Informal Sector: Barriers and Costs

This article uses material from a series of case studies conducted in Latin America to analyse various aspects of the formalization of the informal sector. In particular, it examines the legal and bureaucratic barriers confronting informal sector micro-enterprises which seek to become part of the formal, legal circuit, and assesses the costs in time and money which are involved in the formalization process. The process itself is seen as consisting of two elements — achieving legality and retaining that status over time — each of which involves certain bureaucratic and financial demands. While recognizing that the requirements for formalization can represent a burden in some cases, the main finding of the article is that the procedures and related costs vary between countries to such a degree that it is impossible to claim, as some earlier studies have done, that disproportionate regulation and bureaucracy constitute an insurmountable obstacle to the legalization of informal sector enterprises.     

Structural Adjustment,Democratization and Rising Ethnic Tensions in Africa

Structural adjustment, democratization and rising ethnic tensions characterize the current situation in much of Africa today. This article examines how these tendencies interact causally. It begins by describing Africa's growing debt (combined with defence) burden, the nature of the structural adjustment programme (SAP), particularly its pressures and contradictions, and the increasingly authoritarian responses generated by these. After illustrating the linkage between SAP and rising ethnic tensions, it is suggested that the issue of the distribution of power, wealth and ethnicity, especially under conditions of increasing scarcity, needs to be reconsidered. There are a number of reasons why ethnic and regional tensions are exacerbated by debts, economic crisis and adjustment in Africa; a core argument of this article is that the current ethnic tensions, like the ongoing democratic struggles, are arising as part of the general resistance against both SAP, because of its pauperizing impact, and against the state, which is seen as increasingly coercive and as negligent of its basic welfare responsibilities towards its citizens. The article ends by considering the implications of the coincidence of these two foci of resistance not only for the democratization project, but also for the survival of the state in Africa.