Evaluation of soluble benzene migration in the Uinta Basin

Field sampling and mathematical modeling are used to study the long‐distance transport and attenuation of petroleum‐derived benzene in the Uinta Basin, Utah. Benzene concentration was measured from oil and oil field formation waters of the Altamont‐Bluebell and Pariette Bench oil fields in the basin. It was also measured from springs located in the regional groundwater discharge areas, hydraulically down‐gradient from the oil fields sampled. The average benzene concentration in oils and co‐produced waters is 1946 and 4.9 ppm at the Altamont‐Bluebell field and 1533 and 0.6 ppm at the Pariette Bench field, respectively. Benzene concentration is below the detection limit in all springs sampled. Mathematical models are constructed along a north–south trending transect across the basin through both fields. The models represent groundwater flow, heat transfer and advective/dispersive benzene transport in the basin, as well as benzene diffusion within the oil reservoirs. The coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer model is calibrated using available thermal and hydrologic data. We were able to reproduce the observed excess fluid pressure within the lower Green River Formation and the observed convective temperature anomalies across the northern basin. Using the computed best‐fit flow and temperature, the coupled transport model simulates water washing of benzene from the oil reservoirs. Without the effect of benzene attenuation, dissolved benzene reaches the regional groundwater discharge areas in measurable concentration (>0.01 ppm); with attenuation, benzene concentration diminishes to below the detection limit within 1–4 km from the reservoirs. Attenuation also controls the amount of water washing over time. In general, models that represent benzene attenuation in the basin produce results more consistent with field observations.     

Basin‐Wide Sediment Grain‐Size Numerical Analysis and Paleo‐Climate Interpretation in the Shiyang River Drainage Basin

Basin‐wide sediment transport affects estimates of basin sediment yield, which is a fundamental scientific issue in drainage basin studies. Many studies have been conducted to examine erosion and deposition rates in drainage networks. In this study, we proposed a new approach using grain‐size standard deviation model of sedimentary samples from different geomorphological units for numerical analysis and paleo‐climate interpretation in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. 1043 sedimentary samples were obtained from the upper reaches, the midstream alluvial plain and the terminal lake area; chronological frames were established based on 58 radiocarbon ages. Grain‐size standard deviation model was introduced to examine sediment components according to grain‐size and transport forces. In addition, transient paleo‐climate simulations, including the Community Climate System Model version 3 and the Kiel models, were synthesized, as well as the results from PMIP 3.0 project, to detect the long‐term climate backgrounds. Totally, we found four major common components, including fine particulates (<2 μm), fine silt (2–20 μm), sandy silt (20–200 μm), coarse sand (>200 μm), from basin‐wide sedimentary samples. The fine particulates and fine silt components exist in all the sedimentary facies, showing long‐term airborne aerosol changes and its transport by suspended load. There are some differences in ranges of sandy silt and coarse sand components, due to lake and river hydrodynamics, as well as the distance with the Gobi Desert. Paleo‐climate simulations have shown that the strong Asian summer monsoon during the transition of the Last Deglaciation and Holocene was conducive to erosion and transport of basin‐wide suspended load, also enhancing sediment sorting effects due to strong lake hydrodynamics. Our findings provide a new approach in research of long‐term basin‐wide sediment transport processes.     

Measuring Impacts of Condition Variables in Rule‐Based Models of Space‐Time Choice Behavior: Method and Empirical Illustration

The use of rule‐based systems for modeling space‐time choice has gained increasing research interests over the last years. The potential advantage of the rule‐based approach is that it can handle interactions between a large set of predictors. Decision tree induction methods are available and have been explored for deriving rules from data. However, the complexity of the structures that are generated by such knowledge discovery methods hampers an interpretation of the rule‐set in behavioral terms with as a consequence that the models typically remain a black box. To solve this problem, this paper develops a method for measuring the size and direction of the impact of condition variables on the choice variable as predicted by the model. The paper illustrates the method based on location and transport‐mode choice models that are part of Albatross model—an activity‐based model of space‐time choice.     

Calibration and Test of a Discrete Choice Model with Endogenous Choice Sets

Conventional discrete choice models assume implicitly that the choice set is independent of the decisionmaker's preferences conditional on the explanatory variables of the models. This assumption is implausible in many choice situations where the decisionmaker selects his or her choice set. This paper estimates and tests a discrete choice model with endogenous choice sets based on Horowitz' theoretical work. To calibrate the model, a new probability simulator is introduced and a sequential estimation procedure is developed. The model and calibration methods are tested in an empirical application as well as Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical results are used to test the theory of endogenous choice sets and to examine the differences between the new model and a conventional choice model in parameter estimates and predicted choice probabilities. The empirical results strongly suggest that ignoring the endogeneity of choice sets in choice modeling can have serious consequences in applications.     

Reactive transport and thermo‐hydro‐mechanical coupling in deep sedimentary basins affected by glaciation cycles: model development,verification, and illustrative example

Deep sedimentary basins are complex systems that over long time scales may be affected by numerous interacting processes including groundwater flow, heat and mass transport, water–rock interactions, and mechanical loads induced by ice sheets. Understanding the interactions among these processes is important for the evaluation of the hydrodynamic and geochemical stability of geological CO₂ disposal sites and is equally relevant to the safety evaluation of deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste. We present a reactive transport formulation coupled to thermo‐hydrodynamic and simplified mechanical processes. The formulation determines solution density and ion activities for ionic strengths ranging from freshwater to dense brines based on solution composition and simultaneously accounts for the hydro‐mechanical effects caused by long‐term surface loading during a glaciation cycle. The formulation was implemented into the existing MIN3P reactive transport code (MIN3P‐THCm) and was used to illustrate the processes occurring in a two‐dimensional cross section of a sedimentary basin subjected to a simplified glaciation scenario consisting of a single cycle of ice‐sheet advance and retreat over a time period of 32 500 years. Although the sedimentary basin simulation is illustrative in nature, it captures the key geological features of deep Paleozoic sedimentary basins in North America, including interbedded sandstones, shales, evaporites, and carbonates in the presence of dense brines. Simulated fluid pressures are shown to increase in low hydraulic conductivity units during ice‐sheet advance due to hydro‐mechanical coupling. During the period of deglaciation, Darcy velocities increase in the shallow aquifers and to a lesser extent in deeper high‐hydraulic conductivity units (e.g., sandstones) as a result of the infiltration of glacial meltwater below the warm‐based ice sheet. Dedolomitization is predicted to be the most widespread geochemical process, focused near the freshwater/brine interface. For the illustrative sedimentary basin, the results suggest a high degree of hydrodynamic and geochemical stability.     

Hydrologic and geochemical controls on soluble benzene migration in sedimentary basins

The effects of groundwater flow and biodegradation on the long‐distance migration of petroleum‐derived benzene in oil‐bearing sedimentary basins are evaluated. Using an idealized basin representation, a coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer model computes the hydraulic head, stream function, and temperature in the basin. A coupled mass transport model simulates water washing of benzene from an oil reservoir and its miscible, advective/dispersive transport by groundwater. Benzene mass transfer at the oil–water contact is computed assuming equilibrium partitioning. A first‐order rate constant is used to represent aqueous benzene biodegradation. A sensitivity study is used to evaluate the effect of the variation in aquifer/geochemical parameters and oil reservoir location on benzene transport. Our results indicate that in a basin with active hydrodynamics, miscible benzene transport is dominated by advection. Diffusion may dominate within the cap rock when its permeability is less than 10^?19 m². Miscible benzene transport can form surface anomalies, sometimes adjacent to oil fields. Biodegradation controls the distance of transport down‐gradient from a reservoir. We conclude that benzene detected in exploration wells may indicate an oil reservoir that lies hydraulically up‐gradient. Geochemical sampling of hydrocarbons from springs and exploration wells can be useful only when the oil reservoir is located within about 20 km. Benzene soil gas anomalies may form due to regional hydrodynamics rather than separate phase migration. Diffusion alone cannot explain the elevated benzene concentration observed in carrier beds several km away from oil fields.     

Hydrothermal fluid flow models of stratiform ore genesis in the McArthur Basin, Northern Territory, Australia

This paper explores the role of basin‐scale fluid migration in stratiform Pb–Zn ore formation in the southern McArthur Basin, Australia. Mathematical models are presented for coupled brine migration and heat transport in the basin. The models account for: (i) topographically driven flow (forced convection) during periods when parts of the McArthur Basin were subaerial and elevated above the central Batten Fault Zone; (ii) density‐driven flow (free convection) during periods when the basin was mostly submarine; and (iii) transient flows associated with fault rupture during periods of transpression. These hydrologic models help to compare and contrast a variety of hypotheses concerning deep fluid migration and the origin of base metal ores in the McArthur Basin. The numerical results exhibit a strong structural control on fluid flow caused by the north‐trending fault systems that characterize the Batten Fault Zone. As a result, fluids descend to depths of a few kilometers along the western side, migrate laterally to the east through the clastic and volcanic aquifers of the upper Tawallah and lowest McArthur Groups, and then ascend along the eastern side of the fault zone. This recharge–discharge pattern dominates all of the hydrogeologic models. The basin‐wide flow pattern suggests that Na–Ca–Cl brines acquired base metals in the deepest levels of the basin stratigraphy as the fluids migrated eastwards through the aquifer system. Upward flow was relatively rapid along the Emu Fault Zone, so much so that fluid temperatures likely approached 130°C in the muddy sediments near the sea floor due to upward flow and venting at the HYC (‘Here’s Your Chance'). Transient pulses of flow characterized periods of transpressional stress and subsequent faulting may have punctuated the basin history. Large‐scale free convection, however, characterized notably long periods of diagenesis and ore mineralization during the Proterozoic in the McArthur Basin.     

Microeconomic Formulation and Estimation of a Residential Location Choice Model: Implications for the Value of Time

Abstract We formulate a microeconomic model of residential location choice behavior as an aggregate of the individual behaviors of household members, subject to individual time constraints and a common income budget. A simplified version of the model is estimated from stated preference rank‐order data, yielding a function that may be interpretated as a conditional indirect utility function. We consider Box‐Tukey transformations, segmentation by income class, and a consistent treatment of data at different rank depths using the simultaneous mixed‐estimation method. Measures of the household's willingness‐to‐pay (through rents) for reducing travel times to work and study in the short run, are interpreted as subjective values of time and compared with such values derived from mode choice models. Our results are plausible, and consistent with recent findings showing that the short‐run benefits of transport projects derived by transport models are larger than benefits measured at the land use system.     

A hydrogeologic model of stratiform copper mineralization in the Midcontinent Rift System, Northern Michigan, USA

This paper presents a suite of two‐dimensional mathematical models of basin‐scale groundwater flow and heat transfer for the middle Proterozoic Midcontinent Rift System. The models were used to assess the hydrodynamic driving mechanisms responsible for main‐stage stratiform copper mineralization of the basal Nonesuch Formation during the post‐volcanic/pre‐compressional phase of basin evolution. Results suggest that compaction of the basal aquifer (Copper Harbor Formation), in response to mechanical loading during deposition of the overlying Freda Sandstone, generated a pulse of marginward‐directed, compaction‐driven discharge of cupriferous brines from within the basal aquifer. The timing of this pulse is consistent with the radiometric dates for the timing of mineralization. Thinning of the basal aquifer near White Pine, Michigan, enhanced stratiform copper mineralization. Focused upward leakage of copper‐laden brines into the lowermost facies of the pyrite‐rich Nonesuch Formation resulted in copper sulfide mineralization in response to a change in oxidation state. Economic‐grade mineralization within the White Pine ore district is a consequence of intense focusing of compaction‐driven discharge, and corresponding amplification of leakage into the basal Nonesuch Formation, where the basal aquifer thins dramatically atop the Porcupine Mountains volcanic structure. Equilibrium geochemical modeling and mass‐balance calculations support this conclusion. We also assessed whether topography and density‐driven flow systems could have caused ore genesis at White Pine. Topography‐driven flow associated with the Ottawan orogeny was discounted because it post‐dates main‐stage ore genesis and because recent seismic interpretations of basin inversion indicates that basin geometry would not be conductive to ore genesis. Density‐driven flow systems did not produce focused discharge in the vicinity of the White Pine ore district.     

POPULATION DENSITY IN A CENTRAL‐PLACE SYSTEM

The existing empirical literature about polycentric population density has focused on the urban scale, and the alternative models proposed in that context have been justified using heuristic arguments. This paper describes how polycentric density distributions can, in general, be endowed with a theoretical framework which differs from the existing literature with respect to the treatment of centers: instead of assuming that they represent places of work, it assumes they are places that provide goods and services to households. This imposes a hierarchical structure on the model, which allows replacing the set of distances to all centers (typically used in the existing literature as the same explanans irrespectively of location) with a smaller set of distances that corresponds to the number of levels in the hierarchy and varies with location. The central‐place framework used also provides a direct link between a polycentric model and the Clark formula, in the sense that the latter can emerge through a smoothing procedure of the former. Finally, in the context of central places, the scope of related empirical investigations can be extended naturally from the urban to the regional scale. This is the scale of a simple test presented here, which has been specifically included to support the corresponding theoretical arguments about the structure of a polycentric density gradient. The paper concludes with some expected problems and advantages of applying these ideas to the urban scale.     

OLDOWAN RAW MATERIAL PROCUREMENT AND USE: EVIDENCE FROM THE KOOBI FORA FORMATION*

Raw material availability has been shown to be a major factor affecting the material culture of Oldowan tool users. Studies of artefact provenance often focus on site‐specific raw material availability. Here, we use data from primary and secondary sources of raw material to develop a model of basin‐scale stone availability in the eastern Turkana Basin, during the KBS and Okote Members of the Koobi Fora Formation. ED‐XRF was used as a method of characterizing raw material sources and artefacts using trace elements. This model is applied to the site of FxJj 50 to investigate transport and discard patterns.     

On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development

"The role of location-specific amenities in human migration decisions, and subsequently regional development, is explored. A framework is developed which motivates a new assessment of existing alternative models of regional development, indicating the need for additional modeling efforts which focus upon amenities as critical elements in such analyses. The approach hinges upon the notion that amenity values are capitalized into wages, rents, or other local prices. This process of capitalization enables researchers to explore the implicit value that society places upon amenities, which can then be used in assessing future regional-development trends in a more comprehensive manner."     

Spatial Autoregressive Models for Geographically Hierarchical Data Structures

This article discusses how standard spatial autoregressive models and their estimation can be extended to accommodate geographically hierarchical data structures. Whereas standard spatial econometric models normally operate at a single geographical scale, many geographical data sets are hierarchical in nature—for example, information about houses nested into data about the census tracts in which those houses are found. Here we outline four model specifications by combining different formulations of the spatial weight matrix W and of ways of modeling regional effects. These are (1) groupwise W and fixed regional effects; (2) groupwise W and random regional effects; (3) proximity‐based W and fixed regional effects; and (4) proximity‐based W and random regional effects. We discuss each of these model specifications and their associated estimation methods, giving particular attention to the fourth. We describe this as a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model. We view it as having the most potential to extend spatial econometrics to accommodate geographically hierarchical data structures and as offering the greatest coming together of spatial econometric and multilevel modeling approaches. Subsequently, we provide Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for implementing the model. We demonstrate its application using a two‐level land price data set where land parcels nest into districts in Beijing, China, finding significant spatial dependence at both the land parcel level and the district level.     

Numerical modeling of the origin of calcite mineralization in the Refugio‐Carneros fault,Santa Barbara Basin,California

Many faults in active and exhumed hydrocarbon‐generating basins are characterized by thick deposits of carbonate fault cement of limited vertical and horizontal extent. Based on fluid inclusion and stable isotope characteristics, these deposits have been attributed to upward flow of formation water and hydrocarbons. The present study sought to test this hypothesis by using numerical reactive transport modeling to investigate the origin of calcite cements in the Refugio‐Carneros fault located on the northern flank of the Santa Barbara Basin of southern California. Previous research has shown this calcite to have low δ¹³C values of about ?40 to ?30‰PDB, suggesting that methane‐rich fluids ascended the fault and contributed carbon for the mineralization. Fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures of 80–125°C in the calcite indicate that the fluids also transported significant quantities of heat. Fluid inclusion salinities ranging from fresh water to seawater values and the proximity of the Refugio‐Carneros fault to a zone of groundwater recharge in the Santa Ynez Mountains suggest that calcite precipitation in the fault may have been induced by the oxidation of methane‐rich basinal fluids by infiltrating meteoric fluids descending steeply dipping sedimentary layers on the northern basin flank. This oxidation could have occurred via at least two different mixing scenarios. In the first, overpressures in the central part of the basin may have driven methane‐rich formation waters derived from the Monterey Formation northward toward the basin flanks where they mixed with meteoric water descending from the Santa Ynez Mountains and diverted upward through the Refugio‐Carneros fault. In the second scenario, methane‐rich fluids sourced from deeper Paleogene sediments would have been driven upward by overpressures generated in the fault zones because of deformation, pressure solution, and flow, and released during fault rupture, ultimately mixing with meteoric water at shallow depth. The models in the present study were designed to test this second scenario, and show that in order for the observed fluid inclusion temperatures to be reached within 200 m of the surface, moderate overpressures and high permeabilities were required in the fault zone. Sudden release of overpressure may have been triggered by earthquakes and led to transient pulses of accelerated fluid flow and heat transport along faults, most likely on the order of tens to hundreds of years in duration. While the models also showed that methane‐rich fluids ascending the Refugio‐Carneros fault could be oxidized by meteoric water traversing the Vaqueros Sandstone to form calcite, they raised doubts about whether the length of time and the number of fault pulses needed for mineralization by the fault overpressuring mechanism were too high given existing geologic constraints.     

Fluid systems and mineralization in the north German and Polish basin

The North European Basin hosts mineral deposits like the Kupferschiefer and the Mississippi Valley Type deposits in the Silesian sub‐basin in Poland. The basement to this basin, exposed in the Harz Mts and in the Flechtingen and Calvörde Blocks, contains Mesozoic Pb–Zn vein mineralization and barite–fluorite deposits as well as massive hematite veins in the Rotliegend volcanics. A comparison of the mineralizing models of these deposits with results from a basin‐wide petrographic, fluid inclusion and stable isotope study shows that the genesis of the mineral deposits can be explained by fluid systems that were active during different stages of basin evolution. These comprise syn‐ to post‐magmatic fluids derived from or mobilized in the course of the Rotliegend magmatism, fluids convecting in the Rotliegend units during the extensional basin subsidence in the Permo‐Triassic and originating from progressive devolatilization of the basin sequence and fluids derived from the overlying Zechstein evaporites. Deep‐reaching fault systems developing during the Cretaceous tectonic reactivation enhanced fluid percolation from the surface to the deep sections of the basin sequence. Identification and correlation of these fluids across the basin and in the mineralizations provide the base for a basin‐wide metallogenetic model.     

Developing and Applying a Disaggregated Retail Location Model with Extended Retail Demand Estimations

The spatial interaction model (SIM) is an important tool for retail location analysis and store revenue estimation, particularly within the grocery sector. However, there are few examples of SIM development within the literature that capture the complexities of consumer behavior or discuss model developments and extensions necessary to produce models which can predict store revenues to a high degree of accuracy. This article reports a new disaggregated model with more sophisticated demand terms which reflect different types of retail consumer (by income or social class), with different shopping behaviors in terms of brand choice. We also incorporate seasonal fluctuations in demand driven by tourism, a major source of non‐residential demand, allowing us to calibrate revenue predictions against seasonal sales fluctuations experienced at individual stores. We demonstrate that such disaggregated models need empirical data for calibration purposes, without which model extensions are likely to remain theoretical only. Using data provided by a major grocery retailer, we demonstrate that statistically, spatially, and in terms of revenue estimation, models can be shown to produce extremely good forecasts and predictions concerning store patronage and store revenues, including much more realistic behavior regarding store selection. We also show that it is possible to add a tourist demand layer, which can make considerable forecasting improvements relative to models built only with residential demand.     

Deep geothermal groundwater flow in the Seferihisar–Balçova area,Turkey: results from transient numerical simulations of coupled fluid flow and heat transport processes

The Seferihisar–Balçova Geothermal system (SBG) is characterized by complex temperature and hydrochemical anomalies. Previous geophysical and hydrochemical investigations suggest that hydrothermal convection in the faulted areas of the SBG and recharge flow from the Horst may be responsible for the observed patterns. A numerical model of coupled fluid flow and heat transport processes has been built in order to study the possible fluid dynamics of deep geothermal groundwater flow in the SBG. The results support the hypothesis derived from interpreted data. The simulated scenarios provide a better understanding of the geophysical conditions under which the different fluid dynamics develop. When recharge processes are weak, the convective patterns in the faults can expand to surrounding reservoir units or below the seafloor. These fault‐induced drag forces can cause natural seawater intrusion. In the Melange of the Seferihisar Horst, the regional flow is modified by buoyant‐driven flow focused in the series of vertical faults. As a result, the main groundwater divide can shift. Sealing caprocks prevent fault‐induced cells from being overwhelmed by vigorous regional flow. In this case, over‐pressured, blind geothermal reservoirs form below the caprocks. Transient results showed that the front of rising hot waters in faults is unstable: the tip of the hydrothermal plumes can split and lead to periodical temperature oscillations. This phenomenon known as Taylor–Saffman fingering has been described in mid‐ocean ridge hydrothermal systems. Our findings suggest that this type of thermal pulsing can also develop in active, faulted geothermal systems. To some extent, the role of an impervious fault core on the flow patterns has been investigated. Although it is not possible to reproduce basin‐scale transport processes, this first attempt to model deep groundwater geothermal flow in the SBG qualitatively supported the interpreted data and described the different fluid dynamics of the basin. Geofluids (2010) 10 , 388–405     

Thermal convection in faulted extensional sedimentary basins: theoretical results from finite-element modeling

Thermal convection has the potential to be a significant and widespread mechanism of fluid flow, mass transport, and heat transport in rift and other extensional basins. Based on numerical simulation results, large‐scale convection can occur on the scale of the basin thickness, depending on the Rayleigh number for the basin. Our analysis indicates that for syn‐rift and early post‐rift settings with a basin thickness of 5 km, thermal convection can occur for basal heat flows ranging from 80 to 150 mW m^?2, when the vertical hydraulic conductivity is on the order of 1.5 m year^?1 and lower. The convection cells have characteristic wavelengths and flow patterns depending on the thermal and hydraulic boundary conditions. Steeply dipping extensional faults can provide pathways for vertical fluid flow across large thicknesses of basin sediments and can modify the dynamics of thermal convection. The presence of faults perturbs the thermal convective flow pattern and can constrain the size and locations of convection cells. Depending on the spacing of the faults and the hydraulic properties of the faults and basin sediments, the convection cells can be spatially organized to align with adjacent faults. A fault‐bounded cell occurs when one convection cell is constrained to occupy a fault block so that the up‐flow zone converges into one fault zone and the down‐flow zone is centred on the adjacent fault. A fault‐bounded cell pair occurs when two convection cells occupy a fault block with the up‐flow zone located between the faults and the down‐flow zones centred on the adjacent faults or with the reverse pattern of flow. Fault‐bounded cells and cell pairs can be referred to collectively as fault‐bounded convective flow. The flow paths in fault‐bounded convective flow can be lengthened significantly with respect to those of convection cells unperturbed by the presence of faults. The cell pattern and sense of circulation depend on the fault spacing, sediment and fault permeabilities, lithologic heterogeneity, and the basal heat flow. The presence of fault zones also extends the range of conditions for which thermal convection can occur to basin settings with Rayleigh numbers below the critical value for large‐scale convection to occur in a basin without faults. The widespread potential for the occurrence of thermal convection suggests that it may play a role in controlling geological processes in rift basins including the acquisition and deposition of metals by basin fluids, the distribution of diagenetic processes, the temperature field and heat flow, petroleum generation and migration, and the geochemical evolution of basin fluids. Fault‐bounded cells and cell pairs can focus mass and heat transport from longer flow paths into fault zones, and their discharge zones are a particularly favourable setting for the formation of sediment‐hosted ore deposits near the sea floor.     

Prediction of Bike-sharing Trip Counts: Comparing Parametric Spatial Regression Models to a Geographically Weighted XGBoost Algorithm

Regression models are commonly applied in the analysis of transportation data. This research aims at broadening the range of methods used for this task by modeling the spatial distribution of bike-sharing trips in Cologne, Germany, applying both parametric regression models and a modified machine learning approach while incorporating measures to account for spatial autocorrelation. Independent variables included in the models consist of land use types, elements of the transport system and sociodemographic characteristics. Out of several regression models with different underlying distributions, a Tweedie generalized additive model is chosen by its values for AIC, RMSE, and sMAPE to be compared to an XGBoost model. To consider spatial relationships, spatial splines are included in the Tweedie model, while the estimations of the XGBoost model are modified using a geographically weighted regression. Both methods entail certain advantages: while XGBoost leads to far better values regarding RMSE and sMAPE and therefore to a better model fit, the Tweedie model allows an easier interpretation of the influence of the independent variables including spatial effects.     

Modeling thermal convection in supradetachment basins: example from western Norway

The juxtaposition of fault‐bounded sedimentary basins, above crustal‐scale detachments, with warmer exhumed footwalls can lead to thermal convection of the fluids in the sediments. The Devonian basins of western Norway are examples of supradetachment basins that formed in the hanging wall of the Nordfjord‐Sogn Detachment Zone. In the central part of the Hornelen and Kvamshesten basins, the basin‐fill is chiefly represented by fluvial sandstones and minor lacustrine siltstones, whereas the fault margins are dominated by fanglomerates along the detachment contact. Prominent alteration and low‐greenschist facies metamorphic conditions are associated with the peak temperature estimates of the sediments close to the detachment shear zone. Fluid circulation may have been active during the burial of the sediments, and we quantify the potential role played by thermal convection in redistributing heat within the basins. Different models are tested with homogeneous and layered basin‐fill and with material transport properties corresponding to sandstones and siltstones. We found that thermally driven fluid flow is expected in supradetachment basins as a transient process during the exhumation of warmer footwalls. We demonstrate that the fluid flow may have significantly affected the temperature distribution in the upper five kilometers of the Devonian basins of western Norway. The temperature anomaly induced by the flow may locally reach about 80°C. The sedimentary layering formed by sand‐ and siltstones strata does not inhibit fluid circulation at the scale of the basin. The presence of fluid pathways along the detachment has an important impact on the flow and allows an efficient drainage of the basin by channelizing fluids upward along the detachment.