Can the World Bank Enforce its Own Conditions?

In the 1980s, the World Bank stepped up policy‐based lending, making loans conditional on government policy and institutional reforms in the borrower country. In 2002, policy‐based lending (or adjustment loans) accounted for 64 per cent of total commitments. Some critics have argued that conditionality has failed because borrowers do not comply with conditions, and that borrowers do not comply because donors do not enforce the conditions, due to their own institutional incentives to lend. Accordingly, they argue that conditionality should be abandoned in favour of selectivity, a strategy in which donors would lend to governments that already have good policies and institutions in place. This article reviews the evidence that has been offered for this ‘enforcement critique’ and finds that it is not sufficient to support the argument. Although the critique is often asserted, and although there is ample evidence of lending pressures, no studies have attempted to determine whether borrower non‐compliance is a serious problem, or whether Bank failures to enforce are the principal reason for the failure of borrowers to meet conditions; nor have any studies been carried out to show whether lending pressures are the main reason for the Bank's failure to enforce.     

Geolocation and voting: Candidate–voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England

The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote-likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants' support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual's support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters' choice of candidate. Using a conditional logit model, we find that the distance between voter and candidates from the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat) matters in English constituencies, even when controlling for strong predictors of vote choice, such as party feeling and incumbency advantage.     

Structural adjustment programs and housing affordability in Accra, Ghana

Due to the persistent socio-economic problems that have beset African countries since the late 1970s, many of them have been forced to accept IMF and World Bank sponsored Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs). Ghana came under one such program in 1983. While proponents of the program point to growth in GDP and other measures as evidence of successful adjustment in Ghana, critics have pointed to the negative impacts on the labor market, women, farmers and the like. This paper seeks to add to the debate by examining the impacts of SAPs on housing production, delivery and affordability from 1983–1998. It argues that since shelter is a very important basic need, what happens to its production, affordability and access under the SAPs should be considered among the criteria for judging their success or failure. The paper examines housing affordability in Accra, Ghana, using standard measurement criteria applied by lending institutions to determine affordability. It uses market data to compare and contrast housing prices and income ratios in Ghana from 1980 to 1998. The analysis is based on a combination of primary and secondary data from market surveys, the Ministry of Housing, the Ghana Statistical Services and a variety of other sources. It concludes that not all the dramatic increases in the price of both developed and undeveloped land over the past 16 years can be wholly attributed to the ongoing Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) per se. Nonetheless, SAP inspired policies such as currency devaluation and hikes in interest rates have contributed greatly to these changes. The end result is that real estate prices have been pushed beyond the affordability of a significant proportion of Ghana's population.     

Coordinated Credit Spaces: The Globalization of Chinese Development Finance

This article examines the emergence of Chinese development finance on the global stage and evaluates the extent to which it differs from, complements and/or competes with the Western‐backed development finance institutions. Whereas the new, China‐backed multilaterals are closer to the Western model, especially the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, this analysis finds that China's national development finance is significantly distinct along three parameters — the scale and business model of Chinese finance relative to its Western counterparts, the composition and approach of China's lending portfolio, and the governance of China's development finance institutions. These differences can be seen as complements to the Western‐backed system, given that much of Chinese development finance has flowed into countries and sectors in which Western development finance institutions have ventured to a lesser extent. However, the globalization of Chinese development finance, patterned on the international diffusion of what is coined in this article as the ‘coordinated credit space model’, contrasts with Western development finance, governance and business models, and has triggered a competitive stance from Western actors. Either contestation or convergence are possible trajectories for the future, and the outcome will be determined by whichever can produce conditions akin to the ‘politics of productivity’.     

Urban geography and protest mobilization in Africa

Urbanization has long been seen by scholars and policymakers as a disruptive process that can contribute to social and political unrest, yet there is little cross-national quantitative empirical research on the topic. In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the links between urban geography and the incidence of protests (i.e. demonstrations, riots and strikes) in African countries since 1990. In contrast to previous studies, we are careful to distinguish between urban population scale effects, urban population ratio effects, population rate-of-change effects and urban population distribution effects. We also provide an explicit test of the long-standing hypothesis that ‘over-urbanization’ increases the risk of civil unrest. Employing multilevel negative binomial models that control for key political and economic variables we find that urban population size and the number of large cities in a country are both positively and significantly associated protest incidence. By contrast, we find that a country's level of urbanization is negatively associated with protest incidence and reject the over-urbanization hypothesis: higher levels of urbanization are associated with less frequent protests at all income levels. We find no evidence that the pace of urban population growth or urban primacy significantly influence protest mobilization. In sum, our results provide a nuanced picture of the relationship between urban geography and protest incidence that challenges conventional wisdom and contemporary hyperbole about the dangers of ‘rapid urbanization’ in Africa in particular, and developing countries more generally.     

Social Funds in Stabilization and Adjustment Programmes: A Critique

This article evaluates the impact of the large number of Social Funds (SFs) which were introduced over the last fifteen years to offset the increase in poverty induced by adjustment. SFs have enjoyed greater visibility and financial support by the donor community than traditional social security programmes, and raised expectations about improvements in living conditions in developing countries. Notwithstanding the visibility and administrative flexibility they enjoyed, and their fairly rapid implementation, SFs played only a minor role in reducing the number of adjustment poor and chronic poor and reversing adverse shifts in income distribution. This was due to problems in funding, targeting and sequencing, and cost‐effectiveness. The article concludes that, all in all, SFs have proven to be no panacea. Many of them were formulated with the political objective of reducing domestic opposition to the adjustment process. Greater impact on poverty would have required increased resources, more permanent relief structures, improved planning and targeting and, especially, better timing in relation to the fiscal cuts entailed by macroeconomic adjustment.     

The Effect of Terrain on Entheseal Changes in the Lower Limbs

One of the main factors involved in entheseal changes (EC) aetiology may be related to the physiological limits of biomechanical loading fixed during bone development, such that higher load during childhood and the adolescent growth spurt leads to a lower frequency of EC during adulthood. In this sense, it is possible that ECs may be related to overloading beyond an individual's normal physiological limits as established during childhood and adolescence. This meta‐analysis tested this aetiological possibility by studying the influence of terrain on the entheses of the lower extremities. The hypothesis is that individuals who inhabited rugged terrain have lower EC than those living in flat terrain. This is because biomechanical loads associated with rugged terrain will lead to a higher normal capacity (defined during skeletal development) mitigating the probability of overloading compared to those living in flat terrain who will therefore have a higher frequency of ECs. To test this, papers reporting EC frequencies in the lower limbs were analysed alongside the local terrain. Terrain was defined into two categories: flat or rugged based on altimetry profile, i.e. the average elevation gains and losses along four specific paths (North‐South, East‐West, Northwest‐Southeast, Southwest‐Northeast). Odds ratios were calculated to compare rugged and flat terrain. The overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that overloading is a factor in EC aetiology. However, when the analysis is conducted by sex and side, this general trend does not always occur. Limitations such as the lack of standardized age ranges could be affecting the outcome, i.e. older individuals have a higher frequency of ECs. The findings of this analysis suggest that the theoretical assumptions associated with the cause of ECs require further testing and evaluation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

The governance bank

While the cancellation of a number of high‐profile loans because of corruption concerns has made headline news, the World Bank's principal approach to poorly governed countries is lending in order to support reforms. Although designed to be an apolitical technocratic development financier, increasingly the Bank has focused its attention and resources on promoting good governance in its borrowers. Bank lawyers and presidents have attempted to hive of apolitical aspects of governance by arguing a distinction between the rule of law and the political character of government, but this distinction is illusory. The Bank's inability to address the political embeddedness of poor governance in neo‐patrimonial governments skews risk assessments and impedes the formation of effective strategies. Reform of the charter would not eliminate the Bank's bureaucratic and political constraints.     

The Spatial Association of Demographic and Population Health Characteristics with COVID-19 Prevalence Across Districts in India

In less-developed countries, the lack of granular data limits the researcher's ability to study the spatial interaction of different factors on the COVID-19 pandemic. This study designs a novel database to examine the spatial effects of demographic and population health factors on COVID-19 prevalence across 640 districts in India. The goal is to provide a robust understanding of how spatial associations and the interconnections between places influence disease spread. In addition to the linear Ordinary Least Square regression model, three spatial regression models—Spatial Lag Model, Spatial Error Model, and Geographically Weighted Regression are employed to study and compare the variables explanatory power in shaping geographic variations in the COVID-19 prevalence. We found that the local GWR model is more robust and effective at predicting spatial relationships. The findings indicate that among the demographic factors, a high share of the population living in slums is positively associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 across districts. The spatial variations in COVID-19 deaths were explained by obesity and high blood sugar, indicating a strong association between pre-existing health conditions and COVID-19 fatalities. The study brings forth the critical factors that expose the poor and vulnerable populations to severe public health risks and highlight the application of geographical analysis vis-a-vis spatial regression models to help explain those associations.     

The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico

Prior to Mexico's entry to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to very optimistic. This article investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions‐specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? A battery of tests is applied to these indicators for energy use and carbon, sulfur, and NOx emissions in the three countries. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and, in some cases, improve post‐NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence across the three countries toward a lower intensity of energy use and emissions per unit of GDP. Although intensity is rising initially for some variables in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post‐NAFTA. Per capita emissions of sulfur and NOx also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon, and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, although there is little, if any, sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre‐ and post‐NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.     

Environmental Standards and Industrial Restructuring: the Case of the Australian Paper Industry

Environmental standards imposed on the Australian paper industry have emerged in response to public concern over the logging of native forests and the ‘greening’ of consumer demand. Such standards play an integral part in the paper industry's restructuring. Neo-classical theorists hypothesised environmental standards as encouraging the relocation of polluting industries to countries with lax regulations. An alternative hypothesis is that environmental standards encourage in-situ restructuring that can positively affect a company's competitiveness. In considering this alternative hypothesis the implications for state and federal policy are briefly considered.     

Blurring the Borders. How the Central Banks of the European Neutrals During the First World War Became Part of the State Machinery: Examining the Case of Norway

Abstract

This article analyses the relationship between the central banks and governments in the neutral countries during the First World War, with focus on the Norwegian development. It examines how independence was challenged, and the framework is a concept of central bank independence, which regards non-lending to the state as vital to the functioning of the central banks. This is a novel approach to the development during the war as the perspective has barely been discussed in the literature in Norway, and also seems to be disregarded in the standard international literature on central bank development. From this perspective the article argues that the Norwegian central bank’s pre-war independence was substantial compared to other central banks. Moreover, the distinct borders between central bank and government also safeguarded Norges Bank’s autonomy longer than in comparable countries after the outbreak of war. However, by the end of the war, Norges Bank had become one of the neutral central banks most interwoven with the state. Based on the historical development in different countries, the article questions the notion of the standard literature that lending to the state in a crisis was a central bank duty.     

当代国外对城市生活空间评价与社区规划的研究

西方发达国家20世纪70年代以后陆续进入后工业化阶段,城市的空间问题主要涉及到社会空间方面。地理学对其研究的核心是在探讨城市社会-生活空间结构的基础上,准确地理解、判识生活空间的质量与类型,并通过规划制定出社会-生活区域治理对策,以提高城市空间(社区)的生活质量为最终目的。对以上命题的探索涉及到当代社会地理学、城市地理学以及在此基础上产生的城市社会地理学前沿性研究。本文从综合理念与研究模式的角度,概括当代西方国家地理学对其的探索现状、研究内容、运用的方法论以及代表成果类型。     

Political trust and residents’ support for alternative and mass tourism: an improved structural model

ABSTRACT

Political trust is a key requirement for tourism policies to flourish and sustain. The purpose of the research was to investigate the determinants of political trust and analyze whether the latter influences residents’ support for mass and alternative tourism. To this end, we develop a structural model based on the social exchange theory, institutional theory of political trust, and cultural theory of political trust. The model proposes six determinants of political trust which in turn is considered to influence residents’ support for mass and alternative tourism. Data were collected from residents’ of Mauritius selected using a stratified random sampling approach. We used a survey method based on a structured questionnaire. Using AMOS, the data were subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis to determine the fit of the measurement model. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypothesized model. Results indicated that such variables as the political and economic performance of government in tourism, interpersonal trust, and tourism benefits significantly predicted political trust. In turn, the latter was found to influence residents’ support for mass tourism only, lending support to Hetherington sacrificed-based concept borrowed from political science. The theoretical contribution of the study relates to the inclusion of the political trust variable to analyze its relationship with residents’ support for two opposing types of tourism development in a single theoretical model. We found that such relationship is contextual, depending on the object of exchange, conceptualized in here as the types of tourism residents are asked to support. Political trust figures more prominently for mass tourism than for alternative tourism given the considerable amount of sacrifices residents have to make to accommodate mass development. Our findings suggest that it is important for government to foster political trust among local people for tourism development to sustain.     

华人新移民在澳大利亚、新西兰的生存适应分析

澳大利亚、新西兰自上世纪七八十年代开始实行面向亚洲的政策以来 ,来自亚太地区不同国家的华人移民以及其他亚裔移民大量移进这两个国家。他们在异国他乡面临着以高失业率为主要特征的生存危机。但这一包括中国大陆新移民的华人群体 ,克服重重困难 ,站稳脚跟 ,逐步积累 ,取得了初步的成功     

LOCATIONAL FACTORS IN THE DECLINING INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF THE NEW YORK URBAN REGION*

This paper investigates the locational factors that contributed to the decline of the New York urban region's industries during 1972-1975. Based on the static concept of a specialization index, a dynamic comparative advantage index is constructed. A model is then formulated to test the hypothesis that regional competitive advantage (vis-à-vis the nation) is a function of relative disparities in the change of these locational factors. Regression results show that the region's competitive advantage is influenced positively by the differential rate of change in market size, by the differential profit rate before tax, and negatively by the differential rate of change in unit labor cost and in unit energy cost. The differential tax rate does not seem to affect the region's competitive advantage. Nevertheless, a progressive corporate income tax structure tends to neutralize the beneficial effects of the economies of agglomeration and the urban attraction of the region.     

The new resource politics: can Australia and South Africa accommodate China?

The material transformation of the Chinese economy is forcing a concomitant process of political adjustment—and not just in China. Other states are being forced to accommodate the ‘rise of China’. In this context, this article first presents a comparative analysis of China's impact on two countries, Australia and South Africa, which have little in common other than a wealth of natural resources and a possible status as middle powers; this is a particularly useful exercise because these states are geographically distant and have very different political structures and general developmental histories. Second, the authors consider how China's bilateral ties look from a Chinese perspective in these two very different relationships. Such an analysis serves as a reminder that resource dependency is a two‐way street. The article argues that underlying material realities are constraining and to some extent determining the domestic and foreign policies of three very different states that otherwise have little in common.     

A Note on the Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Model*

Abstract. A mixed, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is useful in the situation where certain explanatory variables influencing the response are global while others are local. Undoubtedly, how to identify these two types of the explanatory variables is essential for building such a model. Nevertheless, It seems that there has not been a formal way to achieve this task. Based on some work on the GWR technique and the distribution theory of quadratic forms in normal variables, a statistical test approach is suggested here to identify a mixed GWR model. Then, this note mainly focuses on simulation studies to examine the performance of the test and to provide some guidelines for performing the test in practice. The simulation studies demonstrate that the test works quite well and provides a feasible way to choose an appropriate mixed GWR model for a given data set.     

Local territorial attachment in times of jurisdictional consolidation

Many European countries are changing political boundaries at the local government level. Reforms consolidating local jurisdictions have recently been implemented in a number of countries, and more mergers/amalgamations are ongoing. We examine whether citizens' attachment to their local political unit is affected when municipal maps are redrawn. Our study is based on a dataset from Danish local governments with survey data from before and after a major reform of municipal mergers, and the traditional endogeneity problems are thereby circumvented. Drawing on Scannell and Gifford's tripartite model of person, place and process, we find that person characteristics affect local territorial attachment as well as the intersection between places of residence and the processes leading to the new jurisdiction. It is not an increase in the absolute size of the municipality (i.e., place) or the amalgamation as such (i.e., process) that affects the level of attachment, but rather the relative size of the former municipality compared to the new municipality and thereby the specifics of the redrawing of boundaries. When smaller municipalities are amalgamated with larger municipalities, the local territorial attachment decreases among citizens living in the smaller municipalities but not among citizens living in the larger municipalities.