Success Conditions for Urban Networks: Eurocities and Sister Cities

The present paper investigates the role of urban networks in interaction and integration of cities by means of the “sister city” movement. The paper addresses the relationships of “Eurocities” with their “sister cities” to highlight the main factors behind the successful relationships. The data and information used for evaluation are based on the extensive survey questionnaires filled out by relevant departments or experts of municipalities in Eurocities. A logistic regression method is deployed to identify the most important factors in the success of sister city relationships. The results of our study show that the existence of any former relation with the sister cities affects the success of the relationship positively. This former relation makes it easier to have a future relation with an economic partnership while shortening the process and accelerating the economic partnership. The results also show that two factors, viz. similarities in urban problems and contributions of Eurocities to their sister cities stimulate the willingness of Eurocities to improve the relationship. The contributions as well as economic benefits provided from the sister city relationship and new business and investment opportunities have emerged as the most important factors in sister city relationship.     

Prediction of Bike-sharing Trip Counts: Comparing Parametric Spatial Regression Models to a Geographically Weighted XGBoost Algorithm

Regression models are commonly applied in the analysis of transportation data. This research aims at broadening the range of methods used for this task by modeling the spatial distribution of bike-sharing trips in Cologne, Germany, applying both parametric regression models and a modified machine learning approach while incorporating measures to account for spatial autocorrelation. Independent variables included in the models consist of land use types, elements of the transport system and sociodemographic characteristics. Out of several regression models with different underlying distributions, a Tweedie generalized additive model is chosen by its values for AIC, RMSE, and sMAPE to be compared to an XGBoost model. To consider spatial relationships, spatial splines are included in the Tweedie model, while the estimations of the XGBoost model are modified using a geographically weighted regression. Both methods entail certain advantages: while XGBoost leads to far better values regarding RMSE and sMAPE and therefore to a better model fit, the Tweedie model allows an easier interpretation of the influence of the independent variables including spatial effects.     

A Route Map for Successful Applications of Geographically Weighted Regression

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is increasingly used in spatial analyses of social and environmental data. It allows spatial heterogeneities in processes and relationships to be investigated through a series of local regression models rather than a single global one. Standard GWR assumes that relationships between the response and predictor variables operate at the same spatial scale, which is frequently not the case. To address this, several GWR variants have been proposed. This paper describes a route map to decide whether to use a GWR model or not, and if so which of three core variants to apply: a standard GWR, a mixed GWR or a multiscale GWR (MS-GWR). The route map comprises 3 primary steps that should always be undertaken: (1) a basic linear regression, (2) a MS-GWR, and (3) investigations of the results of these in order to decide whether to use a GWR approach, and if so for determining the appropriate GWR variant. The paper also highlights the importance of investigating a number of secondary issues at global and local scales including collinearity, the influence of outliers, and dependent error terms. Code and data for the case study used to illustrate the route map are provided.     

Geographically Weighted Regression: A Method for Exploring Spatial Nonstationarity

Spatial nonstationarity is a condition in which a simple “global” model cannot explain the relationships between some sets of variables. The nature of the model must alter over space to reflect the structure within the data. In this paper, a technique is developed, termed geographically weighted regression, which attempts to capture this variation by calibrating a multiple regression model which allows different relationships to exist at different points in space. This technique is loosely based on kernel regression. The method itself is introduced and related issues such as the choice of a spatial weighting function are discussed. Following this, a series of related statistical tests are considered which can be described generally as tests for spatial nonstationarity. Using Monte Carlo methods, techniques are proposed for investigating the null hypothesis that the data may be described by a global model rather than a non-stationary one and also for testing whether individual regression coefficients are stable over geographic space. These techniques are demonstrated on a data set from the 1991 U.K. census relating car ownership rates to social class and male unemployment. The paper concludes by discussing ways in which the technique can be extended.     

Multivariate visualization and analysis of photomapped artifact scatters

Simultaneous analysis of relationships between multiple artifact classes is required for characterization of many types of activity areas. This paper illustrates improved forms of multivariate visualization, spatial analysis and integration of experimental results that are possible with GIS based photomapping. Techniques are demonstrated through analysis of a hearth associated artifact scatter exposed during excavations of a Late Archaic pithouse at Jiskairumoko, Peru. A multivariate density raster is created and additive color visualization is used for simultaneous display of three artifact distributions. Performing unconstrained clustering in a GIS, space is classified by simultaneous relative density relationships between multiple object types.     

城市内部居住迁移对居民自评健康的影响研究——以北京市为例

居住迁移对居民健康有重要影响.然而,一方面,目前对居住迁移的健康效应的研究仍然以国外研究为主,且偏重负面影响;另一方面,目前国内对居住迁移健康效应的研究大多基于截面数据,研究结论不够稳健.为此,本文基于北京市的一项追踪调查,分析居住迁移前后不同居民自评健康状况的变化,并利用定序逻辑斯特回归模型分析居住环境变化对居民自评...     

Exploring the Relations Between Riverbank Erosion and Geomorphological Controls Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

The relations between riverbank erosion and geomorphological variables that are thought to control or influence erosion are commonly modelled using regression. For a given river, a single regression model might befitted to data on erosion and its geomorphological controls obtained along the river's length. However, it is likely that the influence of some variables may vary with geographical location (i.e., distance upstream). For this reason, the spatially stationary regression model should be replaced with a non‐stationary equivalent. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a suitable choice. In this paper, GWR is extended to predict the binary presence or absence of erosion via the logistic model. This extended model was applied to data obtained from historical archives and a spatially intensive field survey of a length of 42 km of the Afon Dyfi in West Wales. The model parameters and the residual deviance of the model varied greatly with distance upstream. The practical implication of the result is that different management practices should be implemented at different locations along the river. Thus, the approach presented allowed inference of spatially varying management practice as a consequence of spatially varying geomorphological process.     

The new Siberia

This paper assesses relationships between Scottish ice climbing and daily weather conditions between 1961 and 1990. Synoptic air flow and instrumental climate data from Braemar and Fort Augustus were analysed in relation to first ascents of ice climbs in the Cairngorms, and on Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. Lagged weather variables were calculated and stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate optimum models for both areas. Significant variables are anticyclonicity, low minimum air temperature and northerly or easterly airflow (Cairngorms, P = 0.0006); and northerly or easterly airflow, low minimum air temperature and low precipitation (Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh, P < 0.0001). A five‐day cold spell is optimum for Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. A week with relatively little precipitation is beneficial in both areas. Air flow direction is more influential than vorticity, the optimum predictors of ice conditions using synoptic data alone are a persistent easterly component (beneficial), and a persistent southerly and westerly component (detrimental), P < 0.0001.     

基于GIS的西安市城市扩展与模拟研究

本文以西安市为研究区域,以2002年ETM影像和2007年TM影像遥感数据为城市扩展动态变化的主要信息来源,采用逻辑回归模型并结合GIS技术对西安市的城市空间扩展进行模拟。研究选取了道路、河流、地裂缝、地面沉降、人口和GDP等6个因子,建立了西安市城市扩展的逻辑回归模型,并根据所建立的模型对西安市的城市扩展进行了模拟,结果表明,所建立的逻辑回归模型能够较好地模拟西安市的城市扩展,对西安市城市扩展的驱动力具有较强的解释作用,其中对城市扩展影响最重要的因素为距道路距离。     

Aires de marché et choix des destinations de consommation pour les achats réalisés au cours de la semaine – Le cas de la région de Québec

Since the early 1990s, big box stores have profoundly modified the retail structure of Canadian cities. This entails multiple consequences, beyond the mere competition between establishments, for the evolving relationships between diversity of retail forms, consumer behaviour and urban planning. These relationships are explored in the Québec Metropolitan Community, using detailed databases, including establishment directories, mobility surveys and a virtual road network, integrated into a regional GIS. Trade areas of commercial streets, shopping centers and big box stores are delineated and analyzed. Consumers' attributes, such as age, gender, type of household, mode of transport, which putatively influence the probability of patronizing one type of retail cluster compared to another type, are modelled using logistic regression. The influence of the relative location of cluster types on their capacity to attract consumers is also modelled in order to gain some understanding of the competition among and between types. The analysis suggests that, by and large, the growing number of big box stores has more negative consequences for shopping centres than they have for commercial streets. The study also clearly reveals the growing importance of shopping trips in the mobility profile of households and provides a knowledge base useful for urban planning.     

Modelling the eco-cultural niche of giant chestnut trees: new insights into land use history in southern Switzerland through distribution analysis of a living heritage

During the Middle Ages and the early modern period the cultivation of the chestnut tree became dominant in various mountain regions in Western Europe. Large numbers of giant chestnut trees have been reported throughout the continent that may be considered the living heritage of this period. In this paper we used a systematic inventory of giant chestnut trees in southern Switzerland for reconstructing the eco-cultural niche related to the long-term cultivation and conservation of such remarkable trees. To this purpose we implemented a retrospective logistic modelling approach with the presence of giant chestnuts as response variable compared with 65 environmental and cultural predictors. We performed different logistic regression analyses using untransformed and transformed variables. Out of the 42 models produced, we finally selected two models, on the basis of their parsimony and accuracy. Many of the selected predictors, such as distance from the lake, abundance of small livestock or number of secondary settlements, reveal that former local and regional socio-economic conditions and environmental constraints have considerable explanatory power. The approach allows us to detect several aspects of the targeted eco-cultural niche that may have acted in the distant past to support the development of the traditional fruit chestnut culture, as well as more recently, to preserve the giant chestnut tree population during the disruption phase of this culture. Most results are in line with the historical documentation, while others go beyond the dictates of written history and reveal interesting traits of the past economic and cultural systems.     

Leisure time preferences and health-risk behavior of teenagers in the post-communist Central European countries

In Central and Eastern Europe (CE), alcohol consumption, smoking, and substance use have become a substantial problem mainly among young people as well as changes of their leisure time occupations. The paper uses the binary logistic regression to measure the association between a certain type of leisure occupations and health-risk behaviors to show which activities are the most prone to health-risk behaviors. The analysis shows one prominent result – the strong relation between health-risk behavior of teenagers and going out in the evenings in the CE countries. There are, however, some specific protective factors of teenage risk behavior; these could be used to focus anti-risk behavior campaigns aimed at teenagers.     

Public Problem Characterization,Policy Solution Generation,and Intra‐Agenda Connectivity

While policy agenda studies have extensively examined the interplays of various venues, one under‐explored area is the internal dynamics within an agenda venue. In this study, we focus on one of the important venues—news media—and investigate the inherent connections between how a public problem is characterized and how problem solutions are generated in media agenda setting. Drawing on agenda‐setting theories, we develop a typology to theorize the relationships between problem characterization and solution advocacy, and use a news dataset on climate change to empirically assess how issue characterization affects issue solution generation. Our logistic regressions demonstrate that the likelihoods of climate change policy solutions being proposed in the news are significantly influenced by how the media stories characterize the issue along four key attribute dimensions: issue image, scope, linkage, and narrative style. Key implications are discussed in the conclusion.     

Firm Performance,Innovation Modes and Territorial Embeddedness

This paper seeks to identify different innovation modes and their territorial embeddedness, relating them to firms’ innovative and economic performance. We also analyse the relationship between the different innovation modes and the economic impact of the crisis on firms’ performance. These relationships are tested by regression and latent class models for the Portuguese population of firms, using a sample of 397 firms classified according to technological intensity, size and region. Our results show three different innovation modes: a DUI (Doing, Using and Interacting) mode, an STI (Science, Technology and Innovation) mode and a TEI (Territorial Embeddedness Innovation) mode in which territory plays a key role. These innovative modes are related in different ways to firms’ economic and innovative performance and also have marked distinctions in terms of resilience to the economic crisis. These findings lead to a reflection on regional innovation policy in the European context.     

Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

This article demonstrates that recent population growth in the world's largest cities has conformed to the general parameters of the logistic process. Using data recently provided by the United Nations, logistic population growth for 485 million-person cities is analyzed at 5-year intervals during 1950–2010, with the UN projections for 2015 adopted as upper limits. A series of ordinary least-squares regression models of increasing complexity are estimated on the pooled data. In one class of models, the logarithms of population proportions are specified to be linear in time, which is the standard approach, but in a second class of models those proportions are specified as being quadratic. The most complex models control logistic growth estimates for (i) city-specific effects (e.g., initial population), (ii) nation-specific effects (e.g., economic development, age distribution of population), and (iii) global coordinates (for unobserved effects). Moreover, the results are segregated according to each city's membership in four different growth clubs, which was an important finding of previous research.     

Algerian routes: Emancipation,deterritorialisation and transnationalism through suitcase trade

This paper explores the relationships between a particular photographic archive, Indigenous Australians and early ethnography. Colonial ethnographers, Spencer and Gillen, travelled throughout Central and Northern Australia in 1901 and 1902. Their experiences in the town of Borroloola with the local Indigenous peoples, in particular the Yanyuwa people, are contrasted to their experiences in other regions that they travelled through. While at Borroloola, Spencer and Gillen photographed a number of Yanyuwa men and women. In 1981, the repatriation of those images back into the community facilitated discussion about the appropriate positioning of each individual in Yanyuwa systems of kinship, and debate around the ceremonial details recorded, informing new layers of social memory. Yanyuwa elders expressed joy at viewing, naming and positioning the long deceased kin but when the identity of the person could not be recalled, responses conveyed a deep sense of loss. This paper explores the response to one of these photographs and explores in detail the resonances that this one photograph holds for the Yanyuwa community.     

Memory,Forgetting and the New Tribes Mission in West New Britain

In this paper, I use ethnography from the Kaliai area to explore the social and political relationships which underpin memory and forgetting. I analyse the relationships of hegemony and resistance which are inscribed and articulated in a context of missionising where villagers and missionaries enter into an uneasy alliance to control what should be remembered so that people emerge as particular kinds of subjects. In exploring the social and political organisation of memory, this paper does not treat memory and forgetting as opposites, for people are also taught how to forget. Indeed they are caught in the paradox of always needing to remember that they have to always try to forget. Here the need to forget has the paradoxical effect of keeping alive the content of what must be forgotten. In a strange sort of way the need to forget sustains the need to remember what must be forgotten. I explore the political implications of these paradoxes and ambiguities for sustaining a place outside European hegemony whilst still inscribed in it.     

基于系统动力学的我国旅游景区门票定价研究

已有景区门票定价研究大都从现实景区数据出发,建立门票价格、景区属性和社会经济指标的多元回归模型。然而这种计量研究,并没有从景区门票定价的多目标性出发,也忽视了影响门票定价各因素之间的相互影响关系。本文构建ISM模型分析影响景区门票定价的主要因素及其相互关系,根据因素相互作用关系建立景区门票定价系统因果关系图和系统流图,并设定系统动力学方程。仿真结果显示,成本票价逐年下降并于2022年降至最低,而最终票价将呈现先降低后升高的趋势。     

Spatially varying relationships between municipal operating expenditure and its determinants: The case of South Africa

We apply the geographically weighted regression to investigate spatial variability (nonstationarity) in the relationships between municipal operating expenditure (in total and for a separate component thereof) and the determinants of this expenditure, in South Africa. The empirical findings indicate that some of these relationships are spatially varying for the period under consideration. The global model (i.e., least square regression) cannot take account of the unequal environment in which South African municipalities operate. One implication of our findings is that a “one-size-fits-all” approach in the design of policies targeting municipal finances may not be appropriate for municipalities in South Africa, and indeed in other contexts in which such heterogeneity is found. Instead, policy formulation should explicitly consider relevant differences in local conditions.     

Rethinking American Public Policy: The Environment, Federalism, States, and Supranational Influences

The politics of American public policy recently have transformed in response to changing power relationships between levels of government in the United States. Certain policy choices now are made in different arenas–for example, state and local government institutions often make policy decisions that previously had been within the jurisdiction of America's national government. At the same time, new policy relationships between states also are altering previous political patterns. This article highlights and explains this phenomenon, and focuses particularly on the changing power relationships between levels of government in the United States–national, state, and local–and the resulting policies and politics. More specifically, it closely examines two 20th century innovations in government and public policymaking within the context of a discrete case study. One of these innovations is institutional–the rise of public authorities or public corporations as highly insulated, governmental entities. The other is procedural–the environmental impact statement process. Together, these innovations, in concert with broader international and global trends, have played a large role in the shifting power structure and politics underlying American public policymaking activities.