基于AHP法的古镇景观保护与发展综合评价研究——以福州嵩口古镇为例

嵩口古镇作为福建省福州市唯一的中国历史文化名镇,对其进行合理保护与利用,对传承古镇景观资源意义重大。文章根据嵩口古镇1个社区、20个村落的资源价值情况,构建古镇景观保护与发展综合评价体系,梳理出嵩口古镇景观保护与发展综合评价1个总目标层,建筑遗存价值、自然景观价值、保护开发基础条件3个评价项目层、10个评价因子层。并运用AHP法进行指标权重分析,结合德尔菲和模糊综合的方法进行赋值评分,最终得到各社区（村落）指标得分情况与分析结果,以此为古镇各社区（村落）保护与发展提供针对性建议。     

视觉景观主观评价的"客观性"探讨——以武汉市后官湖地区景观美学评价为例

景观美学评价是景观资源评价的一项重要内容。为了将主观评价法纳入科学的景观评价体系,该方法的"客观性"必须得到证实。本研究试图证明,在进行主观整体评价的过程中评价者同时也对景观的某些客观属性进行认知,且这种认知可以定性为"客观"。按照事先设计的评价流程,六名学生参与了现场景观调查,并完成格式化的评价内容。研究发现:(1)在景观美学评价中,整体美学评价与评价者对某些景观美学属性的认知判断之间存在显著的相关性,包括视觉舒适度、开阔度、景观特有性、景观多样性等。(2)评价者的认知判断可以精确地反映视域大小及平均景深等客观的景观属性。     

城市绿地景观格局研究——以徐州市为例

运用遥感和地理信息系统技术,以徐州市为例,选用美国的"快鸟"(Quick Bird-2)卫星图像为主要信息源,建立徐州市城市绿地信息系统。在此基础上,以景观生态学理论为指导,选取了绿地景观构成、景观多样性指数、景观优势度指数、景观均匀度指数、斑块密度、斑块数破碎化指数、最小距离指数、景观连通度等景观生态指标对城市绿地景观的结构和格局进行了分析。结果表明,徐州市建成区城市绿地存在着景观结构不合理、破碎度高、景观类型分布不平衡、斑块连通度较低等问题,针对这些问题,提出了徐州市绿地景观建设对策。     

旅游活动对景区视觉环境的影响——以嵩山风景区为例

传统的综合评价指数模型在对定量化的客观事物进行评价时比较准确,但在评价景区视觉环境时由于存在着主观影响因素,这时传统模型就显出了较大的局限性。利用韦伯-费希纳定律改进后的新综合评价模型则显示出了优越性。利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,向专家、旅游专业学生、游客发放调查问卷获得评分,采用新综合评价模型,以嵩山风景区为例,针对该区开展旅游活动后景区视觉环境受到的消极影响进行了研究评价。     

水域景观美学价值评价理论研究

水域景观是自然风景的重要组成部分。美学价值是人类审美和水域景观联系的纽带。水域景观美学价值的评价是天然水资源成为景观水资源(旅游资源)的先决条件,美学价值的高低直接影响水域景观的观赏质量,它是水域景观旅游价值评价的重要内容。本文首先根据人类神经生理、心理学等学科的研究成果探讨人类审美的主观缘源;再重点剖析水域景观的美学特征;最后提出水域景观美学价值评价的理论。     

四川营山黑马山地质公园旅游资源类型与评价探究

本文按照《国家地质公园规划编制技术要求》《地质遗迹调查规范》和前人分类经验,对四川营山黑马山地质公园旅游资源进行分类,并采用层次分析法和模糊数学法对四川营山黑马山地质公园旅游资源进行定量评价。结果表明：第一,四川营山黑马山地质公园旅游资源主要分为两大类、5类、17小类,以碎屑岩地貌景观和构造地貌景观为主;第二,四川营山黑马山地质公园内旅游资源属于省级资源层次,资源整体价值水平处于省级水平;第三,四川营山黑马山地质公园旅游资源景观价值处于“较好”级别,方山、木化石、砂岩洞穴等地质遗迹资源典型开发利用条件为“中等”级别,有待进一步的完善和提升,同时,该公园有上升为国家级地质公园的潜力。     

农村居民点空间格局演变及效应研究评述

农村居民点空间分布及其格局演变受到区域自然、社会、经济及历史发展等多重因素的综合影响,是反映人地关系的"真实写照";通过梳理农村居民点用地规模、空间分布、结构体系、景观格局及其驱动机制,进一步归纳总结农村居民点空间格局演变反馈效应及其研究内容框架。本文通过文献综述法和归纳总结法,从农户生计转型、乡村社会关系重构、资源环境问题以及景观生态等方面梳理出农村居民点空间格局演变及效应研究的5个核心问题。从资源效应、环境效应、经济效应、社会效应和生态效应5个方面构建其互馈效应体系和研究内容框架。     

滦河中、上游流域村地土壤重金属污染特征及风险评估

滦河作为承德主要内水河,担负塞北地区生态资源循环可持续发展的重任.查明负有"京津冀水源涵养功能区"的塞北村地土壤重金属污染情况对积极开展生态资源保护至关重要.本文采用单因子法、内梅罗污染指数法、潜在生态危害指数法及地累积指数法综合对滦河中上游流域村地土壤重金属污染情况进行评估,得出:滦河中上游流域村地土壤重金属潜在污染...     

基于AHP的秦岭康养指数综合评价体系探究

本文采用层次分析、专家打分和文献分析等方法,针对秦岭地区筛选出康养资源指数、康养空气指数、康养生态指数、康养气候指数、康养舒适度指数和康养设施指数6个一级康养指标,以及温度、湿度、森林覆盖、空气质量、负氧离子浓度等22个二级指标进行量化分析,构建秦岭康养指数的综合评价体系,旨在定量地衡量秦岭地区的康养发展情况。最后针对秦岭康养指数的分析,提出一些康养旅游发展建议,希望为相关企业与机构提供借鉴。     

通江猕猴自然保护区的生态旅游资源定量评价

在对保护区生态旅游资源进行调查基础上,本文运用了层次分析法,通过专家对各个评价因子赋值,建立了对通江猕猴自然保护区旅游资源的多指标综合评价模型,定量地评价了该地区的自然旅游资源。从而给保护区开发生态旅游资源提供正确的指导。     

一种结构对称的破碎青铜文物的数字修复方法

为有效解决结构具有对称性的破碎文物的数字修复问题,本研究利用计算机技术,提出了一种针对结构具有对称性的破碎青铜器文物的数字修复方法。首先利用三维激光扫描仪实现破碎文物的三维建模,然后采用基于特征点集的最小二乘方法计算破碎文物的对称平面,进而利用对称性实现破碎文物的数字修复。针对对称性计算的镜像模型与原始模型几何造型不完全一致的问题,采用非刚性配准方法实现了镜像模型的几何变形。实验结果表明,本方法能够实现破碎文物的数字修复,将为实体修复提供借鉴和指导。     

A NOTE ON THE FORMULATION OF A FULL-ANALOGUE REGRESSION MODEL OF THE SHIFT-SHARE METHOD

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a full-analogue regression model of the deterministic shift-share method, for analyzing the components of regional employment change. The model is formulated as a constrained least squares regression problem. This leads to a direct determination of estimates for the national, industrial, and regional growth coefficients. The statistical significance of these coefficients and the overall model can then be tested by using standard regression test statistics.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

旅游地域结构的量化研究--以湖南省为例

运用景观生态学的空间格局指数定量分析旅游资源空间分布格局,采用门限自回归模型模拟旅游客源市场的时间变化特征,运用模糊聚类分析方法对入境旅游客源市场进行分类,并以湖南为例作实证研究。     

A Computational Method for Market Area Analysis on a Network

This paper shows a computational method for market area analysis assuming that stores and consumers are distributed over a network and the distance between two points on the network is given by the route distance. First, we consider five basic questions often raised in market area analysis, and show a general method, called the network transformation method, that gives an intuitive way of looking at computational methods for solving these questions. Second, assuming that consumers follow the Huff model, we consider four questions concerning market area delineation and market potential often discussed in market area analysis in practice. We show that the network transformation method is also useful to develop computational methods for solving these questions. One of the notable results is that market area delineation of the Huff model (which is analytically difficult to obtain on a plane) can be exactly obtained on a network.     

Voting swings and seat changes: A stochastic model

The usual method for analysing the relationship between net seat changes and net voting swings has been Mackerras's pendulum, which is based on the assumption of uniform swing. This paper argues that the probabilistic concepts which underlie the relationship have not been clearly recognised in the past, and proposes a simple stochastic model for net swings. The pendulum‐uniform swing model is a special case of this model. A mathematical analysis is given of the implications of the model for the relationship between swing and seat changes. As well as showing how net seat changes can be predicted from net voting swing, the analysis demonstrates that quite large fluctuations in net seat changes can result from random variation alone.     

A ROBUST APPROACH TO PREDICTING FLUCTUATIONS IN STATE-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. Economic forecasting models are famous for performing well over short time periods and then suffering rapidly deteriorating performance when economic conditions change. This behavior makes composite forecasting models valuable in situations where large forecast errors cause considerable losses. A composite forecasting model for state-level employment is proposed here. This method is designed to protect state budget processes by producing robust forecasts of changes in employment and the related revenue collections. An application to Georgia nonagricultural employment is presented which demonstrates the benefits of this technique. The example shows that the method can forecast such series accurately without the forecaster having to choose in advance a single model specification to all economic conditions.     

人口的区位过程与城市的分形形态——关于城市生长的一个理论探讨

基于中心地假设,从城市人口分布的Sherratt模型和Naroll Bertalanffy的城乡人口异速生长关系出发导出关于人口分布空间动力学和城市扩展时空过程的数学模型,然后借助Batty等关于城市生长的DLA -DBM模拟结果证明人口的区位选择过程与城市的分形形态存在着内在关系。文章提出了关于区域人口运动和城市形态演化的三个基本原理:信息火商增原理、异速生长原理和Logistic发展原理。     

基于概率法的木构古建筑地震破坏综合评价方法

为了研究木构古建筑地震破坏状态评估的准确性,应用概率的方法,以结构损伤指数、最大层间位移角作为评价因子,建立了地震破坏综合评价模型,提出了基于概率法的木构古建筑地震破坏综合评价方法。该方法在综合现状分析与实验数据,在一定烈度下计算各种破坏状态等级中每一种破坏状态出现的概率,古建筑地震破坏状态应为概率最大的地震破坏状态,从而比较准确地判别木构古建筑地震破坏程度。并对经受过汶川地震的两种结构形式的古建筑进行了验证,从而验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。这一方法将提高木构古建筑震害预测的准确性,为古建筑抗震加固提供有效的理论支持。     

MEASURING THE LOCALIZATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: A PARAMETRIC APPROACH*

ABSTRACT The index proposed by Ellison and Glaeser (1997) is now well established as the preferred method for measuring the localization of economic activity. In this paper we develop an alternative localization measure that is consistent with the theoretical framework originally proposed by Ellison and Glaeser. Our measure follows directly from the Random Utility (Profit) Maximization (RUM) location decision model. Because the distributional assumptions in our model are fully compatible with RUM, we are able to offer a more efficient measure of industry clustering.