清代气候变化的社会影响研究:进展与展望

中国历史时期气候变化对社会的影响为当前历史地理研究中的前沿科学问题,而清代(1644-1911年)是研究开展最为系统、成果最为丰硕的历史时段。本文从农业生产、经济、人口、社会动乱等4个主要方面梳理了清代气候变化的社会影响研究进展,兼及同期重大气候事件和历史事件案例,总结了研究的特点和优势所在(定量研究成果丰富、研究时空尺度多元化、深入气候影响的过程机理层面),在此基础上展望了未来研究趋势:(1)完善气候变化影响链条;(2)加强区域综合研究;(3)推动跨学科集成研究。     

利用历史文献资料研究华南气候变化问题刍议——读《中国热带的小冰期及其环境效应》一文所想到的

近二三十年来 ,我国学者科学利用中国丰富的历史文献资料研究气候变化问题取得了重大进展 ,但还没有形成公认的较为规范的方法和手段。以最近刊出的《中国热带的小冰期及其环境效应》一文为例 ,该文作者对作为研究基础工作的历史气候资料搜集得很不全面、系统、完整 ,对现存历史气候资料的特点缺乏应有的认识 ,而对历史气候资料的判读存在多处不应有的错误。由此 ,本文提出并探讨了利用历史文献资料研究华南气候变化时应注意的一些基本问题     

古代诗歌中的气候信息及其运用

诗歌具有时间上的历时性完整,空间上的广达性全面,气候事件的内容广泛性、来源独立性的特点,决定了其在历史气候研究中的可能性。在运用文献资料进行历史气候研究时最重要的一步就是对气候资料的提取、运用,诗歌也不例外。任何一条气候资料必须同时具备三个基本要素,即时间、空间和气候事件。如何从诗歌中正确提取和运用这三个要素就成为历史气候研究的关键。此外,诗歌写作的整体背景、诗歌中的文学成分以及诗歌本身存在的谬误等都会影响到诗歌在历史气候变化研究中的运用;而诗歌在不同气候研究内容中的作用也不尽相同,诗歌对于历史时期特殊气候事件的恢复具有非常重要的意义,但在进行历史气候的平均状态研究时更多时候只能作为一种佐证。     

环境史研究的三个层面

历史学者总是臆断人类生活在自然世界之外。环境史质疑这种假设,并且坚持人类是自然的一部分,我们对自然施加着影响,同时自然也对我们具有影响。这种新的观念聚焦在三套相互作用的变化之上：地球的各种系统（气候、地理、生态系统）伴随时间的变化,自这些系统中谋求生计的生产模式的变化,以及文化态度的变化及其在艺术、意识形态、科学和政治中的表现。这门新的历史学在其方法上是跨学科的,而在其含义上是跨国界的。     

从冬麦生育期看明代长江下游地区气候冷暖变化

根据不同资料来源的冬麦生育期所能指示的气候意义,建立了该要素某一时段内连续的物候序列,以此反映明代长江下游地区的气候冷暖变化情况.分析认为:洪武初期、弘治、正德年间均为寒冷期;嘉靖至崇祯年间则处于回暖期,其温度状况虽稍微高于现代,但此时段的升温并没有改变“小冰期”的格局,明代整体上仍然呈现寒冷的特征.     

基于气候适应的传统聚落营造智慧研究综述

传统聚落是历史遗留下来的人居产物,蕴含着大量主动或被动的气候适应性营造智慧。目前对传统聚落的环境适应性智慧研究主要集中于建筑设计学、工程热力学、城乡规划学和区域气候学四个方向,众多学者利用定性和定量等方法开展了系列研究。本文希望通过对其归纳和总结,达到厘清关系、理清思路目的,为后续跨学科相互借鉴和进一步深化提供基础。     

跨学科研究的发展与实践

作者刘霓在文中以国外的相关研究和例证分析为基础,简要阐述有关跨学科研究的概念和类型,跨学科研究的资助、管理和评估以及跨学科研究人才的培养等问题。     

旅游气候研究进展与启示

气候是旅游发展的重要因子。近年来,局部地区恶劣气候频繁出现,旅游业发展受到影响。总结国内外旅游气候研究进展,国外研究主要集中于旅游目的地气候条件对旅游业发展、旅游者行为的影响和人类旅游活动对气候的现实和潜在的影响;国内研究则集中在气候旅游资源和旅游地气候舒适度两方面。总的看来,国内外旅游气候研究的中心议题都围绕着气候是旅游业的影响要素,主要贡献有气候是包括自然旅游资源在内的资源形成背景;特殊的气象景观和优良的气候条件是旅游地重要吸引物,进而影响到旅游者决策行为,因此气候调查和分析应视为旅游规划的前提。     

全新世典型期中国北方旱作农业分布北界

通过对内蒙古中南部地区考古、文献资料综合研究,编绘出大暖期、西周寒冷期、汉代温暖期、中世纪温暖期、小冰期旱作农业北界图,恢复了全新世各典型时期降水情况。     

黑河流域历史时期环境演变研究回顾与展望

文章从环境演变整体研究、气候演变、水系变迁、植被破坏与保护意识、环境演变的原因、历史地理研究及日本学者对黑河流域的相关研究七个方面总结了以往学者关于黑河流域环境演变研究取得的成绩。同时指出其中存在的诸如资料的整理发掘工作相对滞后、跨学科资源整合力度不够、研究时段分布不均、中外学术交流仍显不足等遗憾。今后我们需要不断开拓创新,团队协作,推动黑河流域环境演变研究的不断深化。     

《燕行录》资料反映的16-19世纪东北南部地区冬半年气温变化

朝鲜古汉籍《燕行录》,是历史上朝鲜使臣出使中国的见闻记录,保留有很多历史气候资料,十分宝贵。本文收集了19种《燕行录》中记载的16-19世纪东北南部地区河流封冻情况,并利用中国其它文献为补充,使用现代河流封冻资料为对照,逐年考订了当时河流封冻与现代河流封冻的距平情况,并得出封冻期的50年平均距平值。由于冬半年气温变化是影响河流冰情的关键因素,河流封冻情况的变化可很好地反映该区域冬半年温度变化情况。分析发现,在1500-1900年间,存在3个较冷的时期,其中16世纪上半期是400年中最冷的时期;存在2个较暖的时期,分别为18世纪下半叶和19世纪下半叶。而和20世纪的温度变化衔接分析,则500年间区域气温基本是上升的趋势。同时和中国其它区域以及欧洲的小冰期温度变化序列比较,在大的趋势变化和波动方面有一致性,但在时间上并不完全一致。表明区域间气候变化的复杂性。     

The disappearance of the ancient landscape and the climatic anomaly of the early Middle Ages: a question to be pursued

Archaeological surveys and rescue archaeology have now dated the disappearance of occupied sites in late antiquity with considerable precision, especially in the Rhône valley and northern Gaul. Landscape archaeology has shown a conversion from arable to pasture and reforestation during the same period. Recent studies of the climate of the first millennium show that this was also an extended period of wet and cold climate. How these phenomena were connected is an important research question. A preliminary suggestion made here is that since reversion from arable to pasture affected regions as far apart as Italy and Poland it cannot simply be ascribed to the political and fiscal dislocation of the ancient world, but should be understood as one effect of the climatic anomaly.     

The new Siberia

This paper assesses relationships between Scottish ice climbing and daily weather conditions between 1961 and 1990. Synoptic air flow and instrumental climate data from Braemar and Fort Augustus were analysed in relation to first ascents of ice climbs in the Cairngorms, and on Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. Lagged weather variables were calculated and stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate optimum models for both areas. Significant variables are anticyclonicity, low minimum air temperature and northerly or easterly airflow (Cairngorms, P = 0.0006); and northerly or easterly airflow, low minimum air temperature and low precipitation (Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh, P < 0.0001). A five‐day cold spell is optimum for Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. A week with relatively little precipitation is beneficial in both areas. Air flow direction is more influential than vorticity, the optimum predictors of ice conditions using synoptic data alone are a persistent easterly component (beneficial), and a persistent southerly and westerly component (detrimental), P < 0.0001.     

Model tuning and its impact on modelled climate change response: Hudson Bay sea ice, a case study

The impact of climate model parameterization is examined using Hudson Bay sea ice as a case study. The implicit diffusion of an upstream scheme used in a three dimensional ocean general circulation model is locally determined by using a one dimension proxy model of Hudson Bay with atmospheric, cryospheric and oceanic components. Using this proxy model, distinct pairs of values for the thermal conductivity of sea ice and thermal diffusivity of sea water are found that reproduce the current climatology of sea ice thickness in Hudson Bay. These pairs of values are subsequently used in a 3°C warming scenario. The resulting ice thicknesses are shown to be highly dependent on the choice of these pairs of values as well as the seasonal distribution of the warming.     

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

Human-induced changes to global climate have become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years. As the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases, the impacts on both natural and human systems are becoming difficult to manage with the current policies. In Canada, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change is the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate two to three times that of the global average. Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions, which has contributed to a rise in coastal erosion. The ongoing resilience of Arctic communities will depend heavily on their ability to implement successful long-term adaptation policies. The development and implementation of any action on climate change adaptation should involve collaboration with local stakeholders in order to reflect the views and experience of those living in the Arctic.     

《味水轩日记》所反映长江下游地区1609—1616年间气候冷暖分析

虽然明清时期我国气候总体呈现出寒冷的特征,但其间气候并不是一成不变的,而是呈现出多次冷暖波动的格局。通过对高分辨率资料《味水轩日记》中降雪率、初终雪日期、河流初冰日期、红梅始花日期、初雷日期以及一些感应记录等证据进行分析,表明1609-1616年间长江下游地区的冬半年气温较为温暖,略微高于现代(1951-1980年)气温。这对于分析10年尺度上气候变化,了解明代气候及变化的特征具有重要意义。     

Scottish landform examples 45: Sgriob na Caillich: a landslide-sourced medial moraine on the Isle of Jura

ABSTRACT

Medial moraines deposited by former glaciers and ice sheets are rare in Scotland. The most prominent example is the Sgriob na Caillich moraine, which consists of two to four parallel belts of angular quartzite boulders that extend northwestwards for over 3.5?km from the SW flank of Beinn an Oir on the Isle of Jura. The boulder belts extend to within 300?m of the present coastline, where they are truncated by a low bluff and raised marine terrace. The source of the moraine coincides with bedrock gullies and cliffs that represent the scars of former rock-slope failure(s), indicating that the moraine debris was sourced by one or more rockfalls or rockslides onto the ice surface after Beinn an Oir had emerged from the thinning ice cover as a nunatak. Exposure dating of boulders on the moraine indicate that it formed at 16.6?±?0.8?ka, consistent with the timing of ice-sheet retreat in this sector. The alignment of the moraine indicates ice-margin retreat to the SE; as regional ice-sheet retreat across the adjacent offshore shelf was to the NE, this anomaly implies that a residual icefield became stranded on Jura during ice-sheet retreat.     

Ice Patch Archaeology in Global Perspective: Archaeological Discoveries from Alpine Ice Patches Worldwide and Their Relationship with Paleoclimates

In recent years, in association with global climate change, researchers have found significant quantities of preserved archaeological material melting from kinetically-stable alpine and subalpine ‘ice patches’ all around the world. This paper synthesizes the findings and the methodologies of ice patch archaeology worldwide thus far in an effort to provide researchers with a broadened perspective on artifact collection and interpretation. In addition, I test the hypothesis that increased quantities of alpine ice in prehistory should correlate with decreased human use of these areas, and vice versa. I analyze the relationship between the frequencies of regional artifact dates over time, the nature of these artifacts, and glacial advances and retreats. Ultimately, I conclude that fundamental differences among these assemblages and their correlation (or lack thereof) with prehistoric alpine ice extents stem from the intention and the activity of the people who deposited the artifacts.     

Science in Antarctica Intellectual and Physical Adventure

Abstract

Antarctica is a geographical region and Antarctic science is therefore multidisciplinary, the main areas of research being concerned with the continent's geological base, the superimposed ice-cap, the atmosphere above it and their external relationship. Each of these research areas is interdisciplinary: the study of its outstanding problem – the history of the Antarctic ice sheet – requires contributions from meteorology, oceanography, glaciology, geology, chemistry and physics; and its future behaviour will he determined by external events, including the consumption of fossil fuels on other continents. Research in Antarctica is given added piquancy by the continent's unique environment and rigorous climate which retain their attractive character even though modern technological developments have removed many elements of discomfort and danger. The region is also singular in its political nature and scientist have a particularly close relationship with their governments through the Antarctic Treaty.     

Climate in the eastern Mediterranean,and adjacent regions,during the past 6000 years – A review

The eastern Mediterranean, with its long archaeological and historical records, provides a unique opportunity to study human responses to climate variability. We review paleoclimate data and reconstructions from the region with a focus on the last 6000 years. We aim to provide an up-to-date source of information on climate variability and to outline present limitations and future opportunities. The review work is threefold: (1) literature review, (2) spatial and temporal analysis of proxy records, and (3) statistical estimation of uncertainties in present paleoclimate reconstructions (temperature, °C). On a regional scale the review reveals a wetter situation from 6000 to 5400 yrs BP (note: all ages in this paper are in calibrated years before present (i.e. before 1950), abbreviated yrs BP, unless otherwise stated). This is followed by a less wet period leading up to one of fully-developed aridity from c. 4600 yrs BP. There is a need for more high-resolution paleoclimate records, in order to (i) better understand regional patterns and trends versus local climate variability and to (ii) fill the gap of data from some regions, such as the Near East, Greece and Egypt. Further, we evaluate the regional occurrence of a proposed widespread climate event at 4200 yrs BP. This proposed climate anomaly has been used to explain profound changes in human societies at different locations in the region around this time. We suggest that although aridity was widespread around 4200 yrs BP in the eastern Mediterranean region, there is not enough evidence to support the notion of a climate event with rapidly drying conditions in this region.