Housing Market Dynamics Under Stochastic Growth: An Application to the Housing Market in Boulder, Colorado

Recent housing-market studies have modeled slow stock and price adjustment with some success. However, the empirical procedures used in these models break down if housing stocks or prices are driven by stochastic growth. In this paper I suggest an error-correction model for analyzing housing supply and demand under conditions of stochastic growth for a regional housing market. The model is applied to the housing market in Boulder, Colorado from 1981 through 1995—a period of rapid growth in housing values in the area. Long-run housing supply and demand are shown to be inelastic with respect to changes in the price of housing. The results indicate that developers respond more accurately to housing-market disequilibrium attributable to supply-side disturbances than to disturbances generated by changes in the demand for housing. On the other hand, price appreciation is driven primarily by demand disturbances.     

Commuting, Migration, and Rural-Urban Population Dynamics

Over the past 25 years social scientists attempting to explain the dramatic changes in the relative distribution of urban and rural population growth have gravitated toward two competing explanations. The regional restructuring hypothesis holds that changes in the spatial distribution of employment opportunities have been dominant whereas the deconcentration hypothesis attributes these changes to changes in residential preferences of workers and consumers. We develop an empirical test of these two explanations based on whether commuting and migration are positively or negatively related after controlling for other economic factors. Our econometric results support the deconcentration hypothesis.     

Capital Accumulation,Economic Restructuring,and Nonequilibrium Regional Growth Dynamics

Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in explaining the significance and persistence of regional growth differentials. Much of the debate in contemporary political economy has focussed on the relative importance of either “weak” or “strong” competition in regulating movements in prices, profits, and investments both within and between economic sectors and regions. However, little attention has been directed toward developing theoretical models that are capable of evaluating the relative importance of (non) equilibrating forces in determining the long-run accumulation dynamics of capitalist space economies. In this paper, I develop an approach to modeling regional growth that simultaneously theorizes the link between processes of economic restructuring and regional capital accumulation. I examine the stability properties of this model in order to evaluate the theoretical significance of both equilibrating and nonequilibrating forces in determining the trajectory of regional outputs, profits and employment.     

The Effect of Job Advertising Policies on Interregional Labor Migration

A simulation model of a multiregional labor migration process is developed. Information about employment conditions in alternative regions is transmitted in a combination of three channels. The adopted emission policies directly control the amount of information available to potential migrants which, in turn, determines the potential migrant's perception of the level of welfare in the other regions. The effect of several different advertising policies on migration streams is examined. Employers can pursue a number of policies designed to maximize their return. Other agencies adopt policies that facilitate the matching process between unemployed workers and vacant jobs. Results are presented for a number of simulation experiments.     

周庄古镇旅游劳工移民的存在主义分析

本文以海德格尔存在主义哲学为基础,探讨旅游劳工移民在周庄的存在原因、存在方式、存在意义及其转化.研究发现,地理空间邻近性、就业机遇和宏观经济背景是重要的存在前提,文化传统、亲人关系、乡缘关系是又一个存在原因.除了老板在场雇佣关系和老板缺场的雇佣关系之外,师徒雇佣关系、亲情雇佣关系、乡缘雇佣或合作关系、组织关系共同建构了旅游劳工移民在周庄的存在方式.商业价值是旅游劳工移民存在的最初意义,随着居住时间的渐长,部分旅游劳工移民已与周庄其他存在者建立了密切的朋友关系,更有一批人开始了深层次亲情制造和家的建构实践,形成强烈的地方认同和归属感,成为新的周庄人,存在意义由此从理性转向感性.     

The Global Flea Market: Migration,Remittances and the Informal Economy in Tonga

Some common assumptions about the form and use of migrants' remittances in the South Pacific are examined and questioned in the light of information from a micro-economic study of one group of remittance recipients in the flea market of Nuku'alofa, the capital of the Kingdom of Tonga. The findings of this study suggest that economic analysis and policy recommendations based on the existing macro-economic data on recorded remittances and other economic aggregates should be treated with caution. The unrecorded inflows of remittances in kind and the associated spread of the domestic informal sector have had some important implications for the functioning of Tonga's economy. There is some evidence to suggest that the growth of informal, international trade is fostering other significant changes in the domestic economy. The functioning of remittance-dependent economies such as Tonga is much more complex than existing economic analysis suggests, and involves substantial investment – not just consumption – with the emergence of entrepreneurs and the manipulation of dependence, rather than merely passive receipt of cash and expenditure focused on consumption.     

Analysis of Interregional Labor Migration in Spain Using Gross Flows

In this paper we study the economic determinants of Spanish interregional labor force flows from an aggregate perspective. The study is based on a matching model of the labor market applied to migration, and uses gross rather than net flows as other studies do. Among the main results, we find that unemployment increases out-migration because unemployed people search more actively, but when the unemployment rate is above a certain level this effect is reduced. We also find that the rate of change of relative wages is a significant determinant of migration in Spain.     

Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Migration and Occupational Choice among Young Labor Force Entrants: A Human Capital Model

Interregional variations in the conditions for entering the labor force are investigated by analyzing interdependencies between migration behavior and occupational choice for young labor force entrants. The human capital framework indicates that occupational choice depends on the costs and returns associated with entering various occupations, and that interregional variation in these costs and returns is a major reason for migration. Occupational choice and migration behavior will be interdependent if the costs and returns for particular occupations vary over local labor markets, relative to other occupations, and patterns of interdependence between the two decisions are analyzed, using a model of the joint choice of occupation and location. An empirical analysis of occupational choices and migration behavior for young people who entered the U.S. labor force in the 1975–80 period indicates that the odds for entering professional or managerial occupations varied with origin and migration behavior in systematic ways.     

英国农村剩余劳动力转移问题的历史考察

英国农村剩余劳动力转移的方式历史悠久,英国政府在解决农业剩余劳动力转移的过程中,自觉或不自觉地采取了国家干预的做法,摸索出从惩罚、济民、移民,到“济身”、创造就业机会和福利国家的一套做法,成功地解决了英国农村剩余劳动力转移问题。在第二次世界大战后,为了进一步提高农业生产力,以适应经济全球化的发展,英国又主动积极地创造剩余劳动力,使他们向工业和其他非农业部门转移。尽管在实践中遇到不少困难,并且付出了极高的代价,但是英国较好地解决了农村劳动力向城市转移的问题,为经济的发展铺平了道路。     

A Dynamic Household Model for the Housing Market of Amsterdam

This paper addresses the issue of incorporating household dynamics into operational dynamic urban models. Dynamic model approaches that can be used to model urban change are introduced and discussed. We conclude that these different approaches are best combined in an accounting framework. An example of an accounting framework for a dynamic model of Amsterdam is presented. The household submodel is discussed in detail and some preliminary results are given.