Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Model Specifications to Predict Commuting Flows

This study is devoted to empirical and modeling aspects on how characteristics of spatial structure influence commuting flows. Within a doubly-constrained framework, results from a competing-destinations formulation are evaluated and compared to results from the traditional gravity model. The evaluation depends critically upon the specification of within-zone journeys-to-work. Specific labor-market characteristics are found to be significant to explain how workers are absorbed in diagonal elements of the trip-distribution matrix. We also find that the parametric specification of the accessibility measure is important, and that the competing-destinations formulation is superior to the traditional gravity model.     

An Empirical Analysis of Retailer Participation Decisions in a Downtown Parking Coupon Program

Parking coupon programs help downtown shopping areas attract consumers away from suburban shopping centers. Here we conduct an empirical analysis of retailer participation in such a program. Consistent with expectations, participation was higher for stores in shopping centers than for street-front retailers, for stores receiving subsidies for coupon purchase, and for stores selling comparison-shopping goods than for stores selling goods bought on one-stop, single-purpose or multipurpose-shopping trips. Participation also varied with numbers of competitors, chain membership, and store vintage. Apparently, participation is a local public good for downtown retailers and stores are inclined to free ride.     

人民币升值对中国入境旅游的影响评估——基于扩展旅游引力模型的实证分析

汇率变动通过价格效应对入境旅游需求产生影响。在人民币面临较大升值压力的背景下,探讨人民币升值对中国入境旅游的影响具有重要的现实意义。本文基于标准贸易引力模型和传统旅游引力模型,构建一个扩展的旅游引力模型,采用面板数据计量方法实证分析了人民币升值对中国入境旅游发展的影响,结果表明:人民币升值给中国入境旅游发展带来了强烈的冲击,客源国的经济发展水平及其人口规模以及中国的经济发展水平与中国入境旅游发展呈正相关关系,客源国与中国的距离则是中国入境旅游发展的一个阻碍因素。     

Categories of Local Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis

In examining local economic development incentives, scholars have found it useful to employ typologies of development practices. Such typologies have been based on assumptions that techniques reflect functional categories, such as marketing and financial incentives, or can be organized by the nature of costs and benefits, or by the nature of incentive goals. While useful heuristic devices, little effort has been made to test these typologies empirically. This research note provides an empirically based typology of local economic development incentives, using data from 967 cities collected by the International City Management Association.     

Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

After more than forty years of foreign aid programs and numerous studies of the impact aid has had on economic growth in recipient countries, the strength and nature of the aid-growth relationship is still unknown. This study contends that results from previous studies have in aggregate been inconclusive largely because of methodological limitations and that a significant aid-growth relationship does exist. Further, the nature of the relationship (for example, positive or negative) varies across the level of economic development in aid-receiving countries. The expansion method is used here to expand initial models of economic growth into models which better explain the aid-growth relationship by incorporating the relationships that aid may have with other determinants of economic growth.     

饭店新生代员工感知价值的概念模型与实证研究

本文采用质性研究和定量研究相结合的方法,探索中国情境下饭店新生代员工感知价值的结构维度并开发其测量量表.首先,在文献研究和访谈的基础上,构建饭店新生代员工感知价值的概念模型,设计量表的题项;其次,对83家饭店的1807名新生代员工进行问卷调查,并对调研数据进行数理统计分析.结果表明:饭店新生代员工感知价值是由感知利得和感知利失构面构成的高阶变量;感知利得对感知价值具有显著的正向影响;感知利失对感知价值具有显著的负向影响;感知利得构面由6个因子构成,感知利失构面由5个因子构成;其量表具有良好的信度和效度.     

旅游上市公司多元化发展特征的实证分析

自跨入新世纪以来,旅游企业多元化问题引起了国内学者的极大关注,但其发展特征却缺乏最基本的归纳与解释.本文选取18家旅游上市公司2002年和2009年的年报资料,用业务单元数衡量多元化经营程度,参照国家行业分类标准,通过对样本公司的多元化总体特征、类型特征和路径特征归纳与梳理,在一定程度上回答了该如何实施业务的多元化扩张战略的问题.结果表明：旅游上市公司业务多元化发展总体上表现出一定程度的扩张态势;在类型上以业务相关为主;在路径方式上以后向市场协同和技术协同为主,且在样本公司扩张路径的选择上,技术协同方式较市场协同方式占优势.     

上海展览业市场特征实证分析

本文以实地调研获得的第一手资料为基础,以上海主要展览场馆举办的展览会为研究对象,从展览业的行业类型、参展商和专业买家对展览会的认可度评价、影响展览市场的不同因素对市场影响的强度等方面,对上海展览业的市场特征进行了统计分析,并据此提出了改进和提升上海展览业的对策建议。     

中日制成品产业内贸易实证分析

本文通过对1987~2006年的统计数据进行实证分析发现:中日产业内贸易水平20年来总体处于上升趋势;中日产业内贸易主要集中在制成品领域内,其中,机械和运输设备产业内贸易所占比重最高;垂直型产业内贸易是中日产业内贸易的主要形式;中日两国的产业内贸易受多种因素共同影响,其中,中国人均收入水平不断提高以及日本对华直接投资规模的扩大是重要的影响因素。     

单体饭店委托管理成功关键影响因素实证分析

委托管理作为饭店连锁经营的主要途径,能够为单体饭店提升饭店竞争能力.但是在我国饭店委托管理的实践中,业主和管理公司之间纠纷较多,管理合同提前终止现象时有发生.如何有效实施委托管理,成为业主、饭店管理公司共同关注的热点问题.本文在文献研究与访谈的基础上,建立了成功实施单体饭店委托管理的关键影响因素的理论假设模型及指标体系,并通过问卷调查与统计分析进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,单体饭店委托管理成功实施的影响因素可分为5个维度:业主自身角色正确定位、饭店硬件匹配、合同全面合理、业主对管理公司准确选择和管理公司对合同有效实施,具体有27个关键影响因素.     

Shake Table Test and Numerical Analysis of a Bridge Model Supported on Elastomeric Pad Bearings

Elastomeric pad bearings are widely applied in short- to medium-span girder bridges in China, with the superstructure restrained by reinforced concrete (RC) shear keys in the transverse direction. Field investigations after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake reveal that bearing systems had suffered the most serious damage, such as span falling, bearing displaced, and shear key failure, while the piers and foundations underwent minor damage. As part of a major study on damage mechanism and displacement control method for short- to medium-span bridges suffered in Wenchuan earthquake, a 1:4 scale, two-span bridge model supported on elastomeric pad bearings were recently tested on shake tables at Tongji University, Shanghai. The bridge model was subjected to increasing levels of four seismic excitations possessing different spectral characteristics. Two restraint systems with and without the restraint of RC shear keys were tested. A comprehensive analytical modeling of the test systems was also performed using OpenSees. The experimental results confirmed that for the typical bridges on elastomeric pad bearings without RC shear keys, the sliding effect of the elastomeric pad bearings plays an important role in isolation of ground motions and, however, lead to lager bearing displacement that consequently increases the seismic risk of fall of span, especially under earthquakes that contain significant mid-period contents or velocity pulse components. It is suggested from the test results that RC shear keys should be elaborately designed in order to achieve a balance between isolation efficiency and bearing displacement. Good correlation between the analytical and the experimental data indicates that the analytical models for the bearing and RC shear key as well as other modeling assumptions were appropriate.     

基于面板模型的城市居民国内旅游消费实证分析

本文通过整理面板数据并构建面板模型,分别以出游率、人均旅游花费与旅游购买力衡量旅游消费,引入虚拟变量区分收入水平与SARS危机的影响,从而揭示了收入对城市居民国内旅游消费的决定作用。模型估计结果表明：第一、对不同的旅游消费指标,收入的决定作用存在差异,其中,旅游购买力与出游率的收入弹性远大于人均旅游花费的收入弹性;第二、与低收入城市居民相比较,高收入城市居民国内旅游的出游率收入弹性减小,人均旅游花费收入弹性增大;第三、SARS对高收入城市居民国内旅游消费的负面影响更大。最后,根据面板数据的描述性统计结果与模型估计结果,从供给角度,建议在全国层次注重发展观光旅游,在旅游目的地层次注重细分目标市场。