空间视角下的区域非均衡再研究:回顾与展望

文章根据新经济地理学理论和空间数据分析技术的最新发展,针对区域经济非均衡中出现的空间集聚、区域差异、增长收敛三种表现方式,分类梳理和归纳了国内外学者在该领域具有代表性的理论和实证成果。这些研究或对其进行了成因分析,或测度了非均衡程度,或完善了产业政策和区域政策,强调了地理因素在区域非均衡发展中的重要作用,拓展了该领域的发展空间。文章的最后进一步提出需要将挖掘微观因素、将社会性变量纳入模型、拓宽研究尺度等下一步研究方向。     

INCORPORATING TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION,FACTOR MOBILITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE INTO CROSS‐REGION GROWTH REGRESSION: AN APPLICATION TO CHINA*

ABSTRACT This paper advocates a spatial dynamic model that introduces technology diffusion, factor mobility, and structural change into the cross‐region growth regression. The spatial setting is derived from theory rather than spatial statistical tests. An application of this model to the study of cross‐province growth in China over the period 1980–2005 indicates that incomes are spatially correlated, which highlights the significance of technology diffusion and factor mobility. Furthermore, the integration of neoclassical growth empirics and the structural change perspective of development economics provide a much improved account of interprovincial variations in income levels and economic growth.     

On economic geography in economic theory: increasing returns and pecuniary externalities

Our objective is twofold. First, we show why there is a spatialquestion in economic theory – why a free competitive marketis unable to cope with agglomeration and regional imbalancein the absence of market distortions. Second, using a new andsimple model, we review what has been accomplished in economictheory during the 1990s when due allowance is given to increasingreturns, while market structure is given by monopolistic competition.     

Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations

Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously-determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to 'new economic geography' theory. Simulations, involving 178 E.U.regions, show that productivity levels and growth rates are higher in all E.U. regions when the financially assisted (Objective 1) regions have faster output growth. This also reduces inequalities in levels of technology. Allowing the core regions to grow faster has a similar effect of raising productivity growth rates across the E.U., although inequality increases. Thus, the simulations are seen as an attempt to develop a type of 'computable geographical equilibrium' model which, as suggested by Fujita, Krugman, and Venables (1999), is the way theoretical economic geography needs to evolve in order to become a predictive discipline.     

REGIONAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE OF AGGLOMERATION AND CONGESTION EFFECTS*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion.     

Location and Growth in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract Clustering of economic performance across jurisdictions has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbors. Much of this work, however, has been aspatial, implying that the influence of location attributes on growth has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the contribution of location to regional economic growth using municipio‐level data for the Brazilian Northeast—a historically lagging region of the country. We test if productivity among northeastern municipios is converging to a steady state and whether spatial externalities are linked to productivity growth in individual municipios. We find that, conditional on structural characteristics, productivity among municipios is converging at about 3 percent per year. Further, productivity in individual municipios is positively associated with own‐structural characteristics but negatively associated with productivity growth in neighboring municipios. This means that there are negative spatial externalities coming from productivity improvements in neighboring regions.     

An Empirical Evaluation of Profit Cycle Theory

This study tests key hypotheses of Markusen's profit cycle theory of regional growth by examining the recent time path of industrial development for eight U.S. sectors. The analysis uses annual data for 1954–1990 and incorporates the influence of national economic trends and random effects in identifying stages of the profit cycle. Based upon those stages, the hypothesized changes in the behavior of other aspects of the growth cycle are assessed in simple statistical models. The results of the empirical tests are mixed. Employment follows a general pattern of early rapid growth followed by slow growth and eventually decline, but the pattern is not symmetric. The value-added curves are similarly asymmetric, and some even contradict the expected monotonicity of the growth and decline process. The lack of spatial dispersion is probably the most striking result of the study. The stability over time of the employment percentage in top states is inconsistent with the spatial dispersion implications of the profit cycle model.     

What really goes on in Silicon Valley? Spatial clustering and dispersal in modular production networks

Is the geographic trajectory of capitalism toward spatial clusteringor dispersal? Recent theoretical work in the stream of ‘relational’economic geography includes several dynamic elements that increasethe importance of spatial clustering over time. This paper developsthe concept of ‘modular production networks’ toshow that spatial clustering and dispersal can be compatible,mutually reinforcing trends. Modular production networks encompassnodes of tacit activity linked through the exchange of codifiedinformation to create global-scale production systems. In placeslike Silicon Valley, industry participants rely on the benefitsof proximity to help build and manage global-scale productionnetworks.     

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE OLD AND NEW EUROPE: THE ROLE OF AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES

As Europe is currently characterized by huge disparities in the economic performance of “old” and “new” states, we investigate whether this is the result of local agglomeration—specialization and diversity—externalities. Our spatial econometric analysis focuses on total factor productivity dynamics over the period 1996–2007 for 13 industries located in 276 European regions. Consistently with the “nursery cities” theory, we find that diversity exerts a positive effect in the knowledge‐intensive services of the “old” Europe urban areas, while specialization is still effective in the “new” Europe low‐tech manufacturing. Human and technological capital has also a positive impact.     

Myopia, knowledge development and cluster evolution

This article aims to show how processes of knowledge developmentand their institutional underpinnings make up the core of evolutionaryeconomic geography. We argue that micro level concepts—notablyinnovation, selection and retention—provide insights thatcan be helpful also when investigating evolutionary processesof knowledge creation at the aggregate levels of cities, regionsor nations. We investigate the linkage between drivers, mechanismsand barriers to knowledge creation and acquisition at the micro-level,and the development over time and across spatial settings ofhigher-order phenomena of localized institutions and other capabilities.We apply this distinction on the analysis of the rise, growth,decline and possible rejuvenation of spatial clusters of similarand complementary economic activity.     

江苏省县域经济集聚和收敛的空间计量分析

通过探索性空间数据分析和空间计量分析方法,以实际人均GDP为测度指标,对江苏省65个县市的经济空间集聚、增长收敛性以及收敛机制进行讨论。研究发现1993-2009年实际人均GDP显示出越来越高的全局正相关,局部空间相关性也有增强的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明江苏省县域经济存在着β收敛,分时段研究为不同研究时段选择恰当的空间收敛模型后,收敛速度加快。技术扩散收敛机制和资本收敛机制分别在研究区间的前期和后期占主导作用,收敛机制的转变与江苏省在20世纪90年代末开始实行的区域协调发展政策密切相关。     

The modemization paradigm based on monistic multi-linear theory: a response to some comments

Long before 1979, Chinese historical research had been dominated by the theory of “the Five Modes of Production”, according to which the whole Chinese history as well as the other parts of the world had been developed from the first MOD to the last one by one. The modernization theories prevailed during the 1950s and the 1960s, bringing about another uni-linear model of historical changes. For example, W. W. Rostow designed a five-stage process as a universal frame work of economic development, based on which each society could find its position in this uni-line. The task of the less developed societies is just to introduce modemity from the modernized societies so that they can make some developments. Thus modernization is a uni-direction movement as well as a uni-linear process. After 1979, modernization as a new paradigm has been accepted by an increasing number of Chinese historians. The increasing depth and breadth of the academic researches have encouraged such an acceptance, but, admittedly, as a new conceptual system that corresponded to the historic breakthrough and the new direction towards modernization in China. This acceptance also showed the “crisis of paradigm”, that is, the contradiction between the new themes and the old ones that had dominated Chinese humanities and social sciences. The modernization paradigm based on monistic multi-linear theory considers modernization as a unique breakthrough in history, a great transformation around the whole world, and a historical process that does not have a given ultimate aim and value but different models and routes. The monistic multi-linear theory on historical development is open and all-embracing in historical studies. A variety of historical paradigms is favorable to prosperity of Chinese history. __________ Translated from: Shixue Yuekan 史学月刊 (Journal of Historical Science), No.5, 2004, by Wang Fan; Revised by Chong Hua     

基于新经济地理“3D”框架的旅游经济空间结构特征分析——以长江三角洲地区为例

本文借鉴新经济地理学的"3D"（density，distance，division）框架理论，构建了旅游经济空间"T-3D"分析体系，分别以旅游经济地理集中度、时空距离及旅游联系诠释了旅游经济空间的密度、距离及整合。以长三角地区为例，刻画了旅游经济空间的T-3D特征。研究结果表明：长三角地区各市旅游经济空间密度的数值差异明显，空间分布差异显著，整体呈现"南疏北密"的分布特征；长三角地区旅游经济空间距离总体较优，各城市间距离较近，且差异不大，呈现出"核心-边缘"特征；旅游经济空间整合表现为上海、杭州、苏州三足鼎立之势，呈现出"一核两翼"的区域旅游发展特征。通过对长三角地区的实证分析，验证了旅游经济空间"T-3D"分析体系的有效性。     

淮海经济区城市空间影响范围与城市经济区划分

运用因子分析法求取淮海经济区20个地级市的综合实力指数及等级划分。根据城市综合实力指数和等级划分,选取4个一级城市作为中心城市,然后运用断裂点公式计算中心城市与邻近城市的空间影响距离。再根据空间影响距离划分各中心城市经济影响区范围。最后以城市经济影响区为基础,综合考虑各城市的区域特征、发展潜力、现有经济规划、历史习惯和人文特征,确定城市经济区界限。研究淮海经济区城市经济区形成和划分的目的是指明各城市在整个区域内劳动地域分工中的地位,了解城市经济发展现状和主要特点。     

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC CAPITAL STOCK USING THE NEG WAGE EQUATION: A SPATIAL PANEL DATA APPROACH

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1985–2004, a period that is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short‐run equilibrium of New Economic Geography (NEG) theory. This is estimated using various spatial panel models with either fixed or random effects to allow for individual heterogeneity. Using these models, we find consistent evidence that productivity depends directly on the public capital stock endowment of each province, but also there is evidence of negative spillover effects from changes in capital stock in neighboring provinces.     

市场经济在当代中国起动之历史透视

尽管有在计划经济体制下20年的经济增长,70年代后期中国依然是一个低收入国家。1978年中国经济体制改革的逻辑起点。实质是用高投入的方式保持经济增长已走到尽头。要继续使经济高速增长就必须提高生产率的增长率,这在逻辑上必然导向市场取向的改革。在双轨体制下市场体制的高效率昭彰在人耳目,为市场体制的改革创造了条件。邓小平的南方谈话极大地推动了中国理论观念的革新及其有关政策的确立。     

Labor, zapped/growth, restored? Three moments of neoliberal restructuring in the American labor market

The paper revisits the works of Barry Bluestone and BennettHarrison in order to develop a critical commentary on the post-1970srestructuring path of the US economy. It is argued that Bluestoneand Harrison's three major books (The Deindustrialization ofAmerica, The Great U-Turn, and Growing Prosperity) not onlyprovide compelling, real-time analyses of three significantmoments of neoliberal labor-market restructuring – theadvent of deindustrialization, the emergence of systemic inequality,and the effective ‘normalization’ of unequal economicgrowth – but also, taken as an historically situated bodyof work, draw attention to a series of long-run trends and institutionalshifts in economic regulation which are of particular significancein the present conjuncture. Most pertinently, perhaps, theyraise the question of the political and theoretical significanceof neoliberalism as a mode of economic regulation and the natureof its relationship – substantially causal or merely coincidental?– with the celebrated American boom of the 1990s. Presentinga sympathetic critique of left-institutional analyses of spatial-economicrestructuring and associated reform proposals, the paper concludesby arguing that both the institutional durability and the politicaltenacity of neoliberalism may have been underestimated.     

国外区域经济研究的一个新趋势——区域经济网络研究

现代区域经济发展呈现出网络化的趋势。国外区域经济学者将复杂网络理论和方法引入到区域经济学中,逐渐开拓出区域经济网络研究这个新领域,形成了解释区域经济现象和揭示区域经济规律的网络分析路径。目前,国外的研究工作主要是运用复杂网络理论和分析方法,对区域经济中的各类网络进行规范的定义和描述,研究这些网络的形成与演化,揭示区域经济增长和发展中的网络效应,分析知识、技术等要素在网络中的流动和扩散。     

Taking risks in regions: the geographical anatomy of Europe's emerging venture capital market

Over the past 25 years, the USA has pioneered a new technologicalrevolution, based on large numbers of new small enterprises,financed by a dynamic venture (risk) capital market. The EuropeanUnion, meanwhile, has lagged behind in this sector of economicactivity, and compared to the US innovative small and mediumenterprises appear to find it more difficult to get startedand grow. At a time when regional and local banking systems– traditionally major sources of capital for small andmedium sized enterprises across Europe – are undergoingintense reorganisation and restructuring, the European Commissionconsiders the development of a substantial risk capital marketto be a key condition for closing the ‘enterprise gap’with the US. While the venture capital industry is much lessdeveloped in Europe than it is in the US, nevertheless it hasrecently experienced a marked increase in activity. But whereasthe European Commission argues that venture capital activityneeds to be much more regionally clustered if it is to emulatethe US experience, the OECD and some EU member states have arguedfor a more even regional distribution. The aim of the paperis to chart the growth and geographical anatomy of the emergingEuropean venture capital market, and to examine its spatialdevelopment and regional implications in the context of thesesomewhat opposing views.     

VARIATIONAL PRINCIPLES AND CONSERVATION CONDITIONS IN VOLTERRA'S ECOLOGY AND IN URBAN RELATIVE DYNAMICS*

ABSTRACT. Relative spatial population dynamics are analyzed in this paper under Volterra-Lotka specifications. At first, the Volterra conservation conditions under absolute growth and their variational principles are reviewed, extended, and interpreted. Then, the relative dynamics are presented which demonstrate the presence of competitive exclusion. The main aim is to derive the variational principles underlying relative population dynamics. It is found that these principles produce an integrand, the stationary value of its integral being the cumulative entropy of the population distribution over a time horizon. Substantive interpretation of these results in accordance with optimization principles in economic theory is presented.